Our NHL betting picks expect the Maple Leafs to pepper the Ducks net with shots, and for at least one of them to go in on the power play. Look for Auston Matthews to pick up yet another point on the man-advantage as a result.
NHL
Tonight, the NHL betting slate includes 11 games, featuring a cross-conference clash between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Anaheim Ducks at Honda Center.
The Leafs’ power play continues to chug along in the month of March, and I expect for that to continue tonight with Auston Matthews leading the charge.
Find out why with my free Maple Leafs vs. Ducks predictions and NHL picks for Sunday, March 30.
My Leafs pick: Auston Matthews Over 0.5 PPP (+140 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs finish up their California road trip in Honda Center tonight as they face off against a spunky young Anaheim Ducks squad that has won three of their last four games.
All three of those wins, however, came against non-playoff teams. Toronto should give them a much better fight, even being on the second half of a back-to-back.
The Buds are coming off a strong win against the Kings where the game-winning goal was scored on the power play, bringing the Leafs PP% up to 41.7% in March, marking the fourth game in a row the Buds mustered up a goal on the power play.
I expect that trend to continue tonight as the Ducks are the seventh-most penalized team this year and own a Bottom 5 PK in the league, which has killed off just 68% of their penalties this month.
Leading the way for Toronto on the man-advantage has been Auston Matthews, who has registered a power-play point in each of the last four games and leads the league with 11 such points in March.
Given the success of the Leafs’ red-hot PP, and the inability to kill off penalties for Anaheim, Matthews’ PPP prop feels like a good market to attack for tonight’s best bet.
Additionally, the Ducks underlying metrics align with their poor results. Anaheim ranks 31st in high-danger chances allowed and 32nd in expected goals against per 60 minutes of shorthanded time, all while sporting the sixth-worst goalie SV%, per Natural Stat Trick.
That combination doesn’t typically work out well, and Toronto should be able to take advantage considering they generate offense at a Top 5 rate in creating high-danger chances for themselves.
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
William Nylander 3+ shots on goal
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll mirror our best bet and take Matthews to to score an anytime goal. He has five goals in his last five games against Anaheim. Additionally, the Leafs’ captain seems to be heating up again with goals in back-to back games.
Next up, we’ll stick with the Matthews theme and take him to register 3+ shots on goal. He’s averaging a team high 4.05 shots per game, and has hit this prop in eight of his last 10 outings. Considering the Ducks give up the most shots per game, it should provide Matthews ample opportunity to his this Over tonight.
We’ll continue to attack that Ducks deficiency for our final leg of the SGP and take William Nylander to get 3+ shots as well. He averages 4.61 shots against Anaheim throughout his career, hitting the three-shot mark in 12 of 14 games. He’s also registered three or more shots in six of his last eight outings.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction.
The Maple Leafs are 8-2 on the moneyline in the last 10 meetings between the two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Ducks.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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