Fantasy Hockey
Using the updated cheat sheet as our guide, we’ll dive deep into the first round of fantasy drafts. The idea is to help managers navigate Round 1 picks, based on the top-16 rankings for managers in a points league and those with category scoring. As you may have deduced, given the different scoring criteria, managers should approach their drafts through the specific lens of their league’s scoring to optimize their rosters. Doing so can lead to prioritizing different first-round selections, particularly later in Round 1.
Advertisement
Below, we’ll break down the ideal first round from those two perspectives and go deep to account for leagues with 16 teams. But first, here’s what we’re specifically valuing for each system:
Points: goals (3), assists (3), shots (0.5), blocks (0.5), power play points (1), shorthanded points (1) | goalie wins (3), shutouts (1), saves (0.5), goals against (-3)
Categories: goals (1), assists (1), shots (1), blocks (1), hits (1), power play points (1) | goalie wins (1), shutouts (1), save percentage (1), goals against average (1)
McDavid will always be the top choice. His contract situation with the Oilers doesn’t matter. Neither do his linemates, honestly. McDavid is so dynamic that he can make something out of nothing. He is the best player in the world. While our Player Tiers aren’t ranked within each tier/subtier, McDavid is the one exception; there’s a reason he kicks off the entire top-150. Worried about the secondary categories? Find someone else for that. His offensive impact is so strong that it outweighs everything else.
The rankings are already shaking up, based on scoring settings, with the second overall pick. You really can’t go wrong here, though, considering how much these two piggyback off each other for points. Last year, MacKinnon shared ice with Makar in about 70 percent of his five-on-five minutes, and the two were basically inseparable on the top power-play unit. So the decision here ultimately comes down to positional preference. Perhaps you already have Zach Werenski as a keeper, so it’s best to target an elite forward first, or vice-versa.
Kucherov ranks fourth on the cheat sheet for a points league and fifth for categories. Matthews is the reverse. So similar to the Makar-MacKinnon conundrum, we’re basically splitting hairs here.
Advertisement
Kucherov is a more impactful forward offensively; he is projected to score more and generate more on the power play. Matthews, on the other hand, gets the edge in a categories league because of his shot volume and blocking, as well as more hitting.
Neither one is a bad pick here, for either league setting. Kucherov’s consistency is one factor to consider. However, one reason to side with Matthews is that you will likely have an easier time selecting a Lightning forward who plays with Kucherov (such as Brayden Point or Jake Guentzel) later in the draft and who doesn’t sacrifice as much impact. Without Mitch Marner, there isn’t another elite option in Toronto who will be a staple on Matthews’ line.
Here is where the separation between scoring systems becomes more distinct. Draisaitl only slides down to eighth in a categories league — and you’re not “wrong” if you decide to follow the points suggestion of sixth overall. Like McDavid, this is one of the biggest offensive threats in the world, and his power-play impact should still be off-the-charts good.
Points-league managers generally don’t need to jump at a goaltender this early. Hellebuyck still ranks No.1 with those settings, but is 15th overall. The decision may depend on league trends — are other managers leaping at goaltenders, which amps up the pressure? It’s possible. Keep him in mind; there are other options to consider late in Round 1 or early Round 2, like Igor Shesterkin and Andrei Vasilevskiy. You can also look for goalies with heavier workloads in later rounds if you are awarded for individual saves; that could make Spencer Knight, Linus Ullmark, Jeremy Swayman, and Ilya Sorokin more valuable.
Don’t let the Bad Team Effect stop you from drafting Pastrnak. Just look at what he did last year, putting up 106 points when the next best Bruins’ scorer (Morgan Geekie) came in with 57. Pastrnak is ranked 12th in a categories league, but if you notice that managers are drafting like they’re in a points league, with high-octane scorers, you may want to jump here sooner.
Advertisement
Otherwise, let’s talk Seider. He isn’t a prolific scorer like Hughes or Makar, so his name may be a bit more surprising here. But he’s that strong of an all-around threat for managers who want a little bit of everything. He’ll score some points, contribute on the power play (especially if Detroit can build off last year’s success), and bring some physical elements to the table. Seider was top-six in both hits and blocks among defensemen last year.
Hughes is one of the best players in the world and has shown that he can keep pace with the best scoring defensemen. What holds him back is the team around him. This is one instance where managers should not team stack in the early rounds — if you draft Quinn, let that be the primary Canucks contribution. The team relies heavily on bounce-back seasons from its players to regain relevance. Hughes is the exception to that, so he’s worth the pick.
This extends to category managers, too, even though he doesn’t contribute to the peripherals as much. In that setting, keep track of how the other top-scoring defensemen are getting drafted to decide whether or not you can afford to wait until 14th overall, a more optimal slot for categories-based leagues.
Don’t have McDavid or Draisaitl? Swoop in and draft Bouchard to get that sweet power play production. If you miss out here, the best move may be to draft Zach Hyman later and stash him on injured reserve.
If picking Seider this early gives you pause, prioritize Dahlin instead. He’ll sprinkle in some blocks and hits to be an all-around threat, just with more emphasis on the offensive categories. That’s what makes him a fine pick for those in a points league in this range, too. As long as the Sabres’ power play bounces back — and there’s reason to have some confidence in that this year — Dahlin should be extremely effective.
This is the point in Round 1 where the next wave of picks dip a subtier. In Werenski, a team is adding a true No.1 defenseman with a lot of scoring potential. Just don’t expect more from last year — that may be the ceiling, but he could very well match it again. The growth and progress of the Blue Jackets’ up-and-coming forwards should cancel out some shooting percentage regression concerns.
Werenski’s value changes by only five slots based on league settings. Tkachuk, on the other hand, is 32nd overall in a points league. His physicality and shot volume go a long way in a categories setting, and make up for what he lacks on the scoresheet. This is the kind of player you may be able to sneak in Round 2, because some managers could be dissuaded from using a first-round pick on him because of his lower scoring.
Weegar is another player who could slip to later rounds and become an even more savvy pick. Most defensemen picked in Round 1 quarterback good power play units. The Flames, on the other hand, aren’t an offensive juggernaut. Plus, Zayne Parekh could push for a PP1 role.
Advertisement
Angle for a more well-rounded threat here, and try to circle back later in the draft; if not, Weegar’s peripherals could be made up for elsewhere. Any of the defenders mentioned above would be preferable. If they’re unavailable, you could skip ahead to someone like Adam Fox, Jack Sanderson, or Josh Morrissey.
Hughes slips down to 26th in the rankings for category managers, so that’s a late second-round/early-third pick for most managers. He probably won’t last that long, with his offensive upside. That usually drives most decision-making in the early rounds, with managers seeking players who can contribute to the physical categories later. That strategy can work, but I think there needs to be a little more of a trade-off. Say you’ve already drafted someone like Seider, then you can afford Hughes sooner; or if Hughes is a late first-rounder, then maybe look for someone a bit more well-rounded next.
As for managers in points leagues, there could be some skepticism due to Hughes’ injury history. Sure, he’s paced for 90-plus points in most years, but he’s only actually done it once due to a handful of condensed seasons. The safer move could be looking at Nico Hischier or Jesper Bratt instead, to benefit from the Devils’ high-octane power play. But Hughes’ shot volume sets him apart from his teammates, along with the differences in scoring pace.
Regardless of settings, Fox should get drafted late in Round 1. Sure, he’s coming off a down year in New York. And his performance in the 4 Nations Face-Off hurt his stock after he looked exposed in a best-on-best. But that setting isn’t the norm in the NHL, where he generally cooks.
Fox had one of the best impacts on the Rangers’ expected goal generation last year at five-on-five, so there shouldn’t be any red flags there. The big difference in his scoring was the power play; expect that to change under new (well, kind of) direction this year.
It doesn’t matter how mid the Wild project to be; Kaprizov is an outright game-breaker. Draft him in Round 1 every day of the week. The difference between a Kaprizov and, say, a Mikko Rantanen (and we’ll get there) is that Minnesota hasn’t had as many fantasy-relevant players. Miss out on Kaprizov, the next best forward bets are Matt Boldy and Joel Eriksson Ek; it just thins out a lot below that trio. Add in the potential of Zeev Buium adding a spark on the power play, and the chances of Kaprizov scoring upwards of 90 points seem like a pretty safe bet, especially with his contract situation no longer hovering over the Wild.
We covered both earlier, but flagging that Hellebuyck is first-round worthy regardless of the scoring format.
Expect a better year out of Rantanen after last year’s chaos. Being traded once is a shock; being traded twice in the same season is unheard of for a star player in the NHL. With the human element in mind, it’s not entirely surprising that Rantanen struggled to adjust to his new surroundings, not once, but twice. He rounded into form against his former team in the playoffs, but now he has to prove he can be a 90-100 point guy in Dallas.
Advertisement
If you’re shaky on Rantanen and would rather bet on a Star lower in the draft, wait for someone like Wyatt Johnston or Jason Robertson, or pick a defender like Miro Heiskanen or Thomas Harley sometime in Round 2. But under Glen Gulutzan, I like Rantanen’s chances of tuning out the noise and getting back to his usual offensive ability. Category league managers may be able to wait out this pick until sometime in Round 2.
(Photo: Sam Hodde/Getty Images)
Spot the pattern. Connect the terms
Find the hidden link between sports terms
Play today's puzzle
Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
Hockey News