The Boston Bruins are bleeding shots, and Brady Tkachuk will gladly take advantage of the opportunity.
NHL
The Boston Bruins are struggling mightily. They have won just three of the past 10 games and bled shots nightly along the way.
My Bruins vs. Senators predictions see their shot suppression woes continuing, with star winger Brady Tkachuk being front and center for Ottawa.
Let’s break things down further with my January 18 NHL picks.
My Senators pick
Brady Tkachuk Over 3.5 shots (-118 at Pinnacle)
My Senators analysis
Brady Tkachuk is one of the best volume shooters in the NHL. He performs best on home ice, where his hit rate (60%) is drastically higher than when playing on the road (46%).
That is no coincidence. Last season, Tkachuk’s success rate when skating on home ice was 13% higher than on the road, a nearly identical split.
While stout defense is generally what comes to mind when you think of the Boston Bruins, they have played anything but of late.
At 5-on-5, the Bruins have allowed shot attempts at a higher rate than every team in the league since the calendar flipped. Only the Chicago Blackhawks, who find themselves in the basement of the NHL, have conceded more shots on target during that span. The Bruins have struggled mightily to limit shots.
Tkachuk is the most likely Ottawa Senators player to take advantage. He’s currently skating on a line with Josh Norris and Drake Batherson, both of whom boost his shot rates more than other linemates he’s played with, even semi-regularly.
Tkachuk also owns an otherworldly track record against the Atlantic Division foe. He’s recorded at least four shots in 10 of the past 12 games against the Bruins, averaging a whopping 5.2 in that span.
Given Tkachuk is rested, playing at home, facing a rival he excels against, and the Bruins’ are laboring defensively, we should expect an active shooting performance from the captain.
The Senators have taken some money against the reeling Bruins, and since opening at Pinnacle, the market has shifted five cents further in their direction.
It’s hard to argue against the move, as the Senators have posted much better underlying results lately and have played well on home soil. The Bruins have struggled on the road, winning only nine times through 23 games.
The total has shifted slightly toward the Under of 5.5, moving from -109 to -112. History certainly aligns with that move; eight of the past 10 head-to-head meetings have featured five goals or fewer, including their lone matchup earlier this season.
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Odds courtesy of Pinnacle
Brady Tkachuk has recorded at least four shots in four of his past five home games against Boston. Find more NHL betting trends for Senators vs Bruins.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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