Filip Gustavsson has been locked in for much of the season, and he'll keep Team USA at bay in this tilt.
Sweden and the USA will conclude round-robin play in a marquee matchup that still might not carry much weight, as Sweden will be eliminated if the game in the early window is settled inside regulation, no matter which country comes out on top.
My Sweden vs. USA predictions expect the Swedes to keep USA’s offense in check and ensure not to be the only team to go winless in the tournament.
Let’s take a closer look at my NHL picks for February 17.
My pick
USA team total Under 3.5 (-130 at BET99)
My analysis
The United States won their first two games in regulation and punched a ticket to the finals, meaning this game is of no importance to them. Their lineup will reflect that.
Matthew Tkachuk is nursing a lower-body injury suffered against Team Canada. It is not believed to be serious, but with nothing on the line for Team USA, he will be held out and given extra time to rest.
Tkachuk produced three points over two games while also making an impact with his physical game. His absence will be felt.
As dangerous as Team USA’s offense is, a case could be made that defense is the calling card. The Americans have allowed just two goals and 47 shots over the first two games despite sitting on leads for close to half of each.
Their structure and commitment to the defensive end are among the main reasons they’ve clinched a spot in the finals. Head coach Mike Sullivan will no doubt emphasize the importance of sticking to their systems and maintaining good habits against Sweden.
Sweden’s defense is its strength, and Filip Gustavsson has performed at an elite level this season. The Swedes are unlikely to make life easy for Team USA.
They will be determined to get a win — and avoid leaving the tournament as the only team without a victory – regardless of what happens in the Canada/Finland game prior.
It’s also worth noting Sweden held opponents to three goals inside of regulation in both games. That trend should continue tonight.
USA team total Under 3.5
Under 6.5
Sweden moneyline
The United States are averaging 27.5 shots per game in this tournament. Although they’ve the finishing talent to convert at a good clip, that puts a ceiling on their offense; especially going up against a goaltender with a .915 SV%.
If Team USA is to go Under 3.5 goals, Sweden will need to score at least four times to push this game Over the number. Hellebuyck or not, that’s easier said than done vs. a team that has conceded two goals through two games.
I like taking a shot on the Swedes to steal a win to round out the parlay. They’ve played a pair of competitive games that essentially came down to coin flips and could just as easily be 2-0 instead of 0-2.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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