Cordell's pick: Goals have been few and far between for Connor McDavid, but he hasn't been shy about shooting the puck in these playoffs.
NHL
The Edmonton Oilers and Dallas Stars split the first two games in Texas in what is shaping up to be a riveting series, which shifts to Edmonton today. Puck drop is at 3:00 p.m. ET on ABC from Rogers Place.
My Stars vs. Oilers predictions expect Connor McDavid to pick up where he left off and have another big shooting performance.
Let’s dive deeper into my NHL picks for Sunday, May 25.
I like the Edmonton Oilers‘ chances of grabbing a series lead
Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl will determine this series. If they’re at the peak of their powers, it doesn’t really matter what the Dallas Stars do.
Through two games, it looks like McDavid and Draisaitl are poised to take over. They’ve combined for seven points and rank first and second among all players in the series in shots, attempts, and scoring chances. They’re getting too many looks.
My Stars vs Oilers pick: Connor McDavid Over 3.5 shots (-105 at BET99)
Connor McDavid has flipped a switch in the playoffs to become a shooting machine. He’s taken matters into his own hands and is pulling the trigger when the chances are there. His volume has soared through the roof as a result.
McDavid has averaged 3.9 shots on 7.1 attempts per game in the playoffs. That’s night and day from his regular season averages of 2.9 shots on 5.5 attempts.
While McDavid has proven nearly impossible to slow down regardless of the game location, his playoff volume at home is noticeably higher.
He attempted at least six shots in all five games and has 7+ in four straight. On the season, McDavid had at least four shots on target in 18 of 21 games (86%) when recording seven attempts. His floor is very high when producing that kind of volume, which has turned into a nightly occurrence.
The Stars controlled the matchups in Dallas, and they still couldn’t stop McDavid from leading all players in shots and attempts.
Connor McDavid Over 3.5 shots
Connor McDavid anytime goalscorer
Evan Bouchard Over 0.5 assists
McDavid is the best player in the league and tops all skaters in shots on goal, scoring chances, and expected goals during the playoffs. That’s a recipe for big time production; we just haven’t seen it yet.
Jake Oettinger is a good goaltender, but it’s only a matter of time before the dam breaks and McDavid starts filling the net, especially generating this kind of volume so consistently.
Lastly, we’re backing Evan Bouchard to pick up an apple along the way. Bouchard has 49 assists over his last 50 playoff games and shares the ice a ton with McDavid, be it 5-on-5 or on the man advantage.
The production of these two players is greatly correlated. If McDavid finds the back of the net, there’s a decent chance Bouchard helped make it happen.
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Odds courtesy of BET99.
Connor McDavid has logged 4+ shots in six of his last eight games against the Stars. Find more NHL betting trends for Stars vs. Oilers.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
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Todd Cordell is a data-driven betting analyst. He uses numbers to help identify value across a wide variety of sports, with NHL being his specialty. Shot props, in particular, have proven to be a very fruitful market. Todd has served as a betting analyst in the public sphere for many years, most recently with theScore covering the NHL and MLB.
When not writing about sports betting, Todd stays busy analyzing the New Jersey Devils with a fine-tooth comb for InfernalAccess, his Devils-centric blog. Todd attended Sheridan College and graduated in 2014 with a diploma in print journalism.
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