NHL
NHL Preseason
A new NHL season is around the corner, which means that hope and optimism are at their peak for every franchise. This is a unique season because most of the teams that missed the playoffs last year are trying to improve and get back into the dance, rather than selling off their impact players and committing to a tank/rebuild.
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Reality will kick some teams in the teeth quickly once the regular season starts, but for now, there are probably 25 clubs or so that see themselves realistically fighting for the playoffs. But there are only 16 playoff spots to go around.
The NHL has played four 82-game regular seasons since the COVID-19 pandemic. Four or five new playoff teams have emerged in every one of those years, except for the 2023-24 season, during which only three new teams qualified. With that in mind, let’s dissect four teams that missed the playoffs last year, who I believe have the best chance of bouncing back and qualifying for the 2026 Stanley Cup playoffs.
Why they could make it: Utah’s top-six offensive attack should be primed for a breakthrough. Last year, the Mammoth averaged only 2.93 goals per game, which ranked 21st in the NHL. Newcomer JJ Peterka, who scored 68 points last season, is a strong stylistic fit with Utah’s rush-based offensive approach. Logan Cooley (65 points in 75 games) and Dylan Guenther (60 points in 70 games) are two of the best U23 players in the league; they could both break out as point-per-game stars this season.
Between Peterka’s arrival, internal growth from Cooley and Guenther, and the superstar, 90-point level that Clayton Keller reached last year, Utah could have some serious star power offensively. Nick Schmaltz and Barrett Hayton are underrated players to round out the top six; Schmaltz has averaged 0.84 points-per-game over his last four years (a 68 points per 82 games pace) and Hayton has evolved into a defensive stud on top of being a 20-goal, 45ish point producer.
The Mammoth were very unlucky that both Sean Durzi (30 games played) and John Marino (35 games played) were injured for most of last season. Injuries affect every organization, but very few teams would be able to make the playoffs without their two best right-handed defensemen in the lineup. Durzi and Marino have historically been durable players, so this season could be our first extended opportunity to see what Utah’s full, healthy defensive group looks like after the splashy upgrades they made in the 2024 offseason.
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Utah was also the only team in the top 10 in terms of five-on-five expected goal share to miss the playoffs. The Mammoth didn’t always convert puck possession and scoring chances into wins last year — perhaps because they’re a younger, inexperienced core — but I’d expect that to change this season. Just look at the impressive company they were in.
Weaknesses that could hold them back: Utah’s bottom-six forward group isn’t a strength on paper. There is some potential — Lawson Crouse, who only scored 18 points after three straight 20-goal seasons, is a good bounce-back candidate — but if Crouse doesn’t get going, the bottom six might struggle to contribute secondary offense, especially since Josh Doan and Matias Maccelli are gone. The Mammoth blue line is solid, but it’s only about league average in quality.
Utah’s goaltending could also be prone to ups and downs. Karel Vejmelka is a credible starter, but with the club ready to move on from Connor Ingram, Vitek Vanecek is poised to be the team’s backup. Vanecek hasn’t posted a save percentage above .900 since the 2022-23 season.
And finally, while there’s a high probability that Cooley and Guenther break out, there’s always a small but legitimate chance that they plateau this year. Young player development isn’t always linear, and players sometimes hit their peak a little later than expected.
Why they could make it: After missing the final wild-card spot by just two points last year, the Blue Jackets could finally be ready to snap their five-year playoff drought.
Columbus is already a dynamic, high-end offensive team led by Zach Werenski’s emergence as a bona fide superstar. The Blue Jackets were tied with the Maple Leafs as the seventh-highest scoring team in the NHL last season.
Years of drafting and developing have paid off, as Kirill Marchenko, Adam Fantilli and Kent Johnson all broke out as stars last season. Marchenko scored 74 points, Fantilli racked up 31 goals as a 20-year-old, and Johnson scored at a near 70-point pace. There’s a high probability that Fantilli, almost 21, and Johnson, nearly 23, will take another step this year. Yegor Chinakhov could be a sneaky breakout candidate if he stays healthy, too, and you can’t forget about Dmitri Voronkov, an underrated power forward, coming off a 23-goal campaign in 73 games. Add Sean Monahan and Boone Jenner as savvy, productive veterans, and you’ve got a scary top-nine forward group, even if the young players only show modest improvement this season.
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The Blue Jackets scored on 10.5 percent of their five-on-five shots last year, which was the third-highest mark in the NHL. There is a chance that their finishing efficiency regresses, preventing the team from achieving elite-level offensive results. However, in polling hockey operations personnel on other teams, there’s a belief that Columbus’ young forwards are so fast, talented and lethal off the rush that they should maintain an above-average finishing clip, and that they’ll only improve as play-drivers this season, too.
Charlie Coyle is a solid pick-up to solidify the Blue Jackets’ third-line center role, even if the club arguably overpaid to trade for him.
Overall, this is an electric offensive team with an enviable mix of young, up-and-coming talent and quality veterans. They’ve become an exceptionally tight-knit team after the Gaudreau brothers’ tragedy, and they’re well-coached by Dean Evason, who has made this team greater than the sum of its parts.
Weaknesses that could hold them back: As tantalizing as the Blue Jackets’ offensive profile is, their inability to keep pucks out of their own net is the last remaining hurdle to a playoff spot.
Defensively, Columbus gave up too much last year, ranking 26th in the NHL for five-on-five scoring chance suppression. Part of that is the growing pains of young players learning how to master their two-way responsibilities, and part of it is that the blue line was in a state of flux early on. The Blue Jackets weren’t able to land a high-end top-four defenseman this offseason, but they may already have answers internally that could make their blue line playoff-caliber.
Columbus was in seventh place in the Metro Division, sitting at 5-6-2 when it claimed Dante Fabbro off waivers on Nov. 10. Fabbro was an excellent fit on the top pair with Werenski, and the Blue Jackets had the eighth-best points percentage in the East in their remaining 69 games. Denton Mateychuk’s rise could be a game-changer, too. Drafted No. 12 in 2022, Mateychuk dominated the WHL for two years and produced at a near point-per-game clip as a 20-year-old defender in the AHL last season. He was called up to the NHL in late December and performed well in 45 games, averaging 18:02 of ice time per game. Mateychuk is a blue-chip talent and could become a needle-moving top-four driver as soon as this season.
Beyond that, there are the annual concerns in net. Elvis Merzlikins has had a sub-.900 save percentage in three consecutive years as a starter, with the team’s save percentage ranking 29th in the NHL over the last three seasons. Jet Greaves, who was excellent in the AHL and spectacular in 11 NHL games at the end of last season (.938 save percentage), could break out and remedy some of those goaltending concerns, but they could be in trouble if he isn’t ready for that step.
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Why they could make it: Everything went catastrophically wrong for the Canucks last year. Vancouver’s locker room was a dysfunctional mess due to the rift between J.T. Miller and Elias Pettersson. Pettersson mysteriously went from being a 90-100 point franchise centerman to not even cracking 50 points. The Canucks were one of the hardest-hit teams in the league in terms of man games lost, and worse, the effect was mainly felt at the top of the lineup: Quinn Hughes, Filip Hronek and Pettersson all missed significant time due to injury. Thatcher Demko went from being the Vezina Trophy runner-up in 2023-24 to appearing in just 23 games and posting an .889 save percentage because of injuries.
Despite all those worst-case scenarios unfolding, they were still a 90-point team that narrowly missed making the playoffs. If one of Pettersson or Demko bounces back and performs at an elite level (which they both did in 2023-24), that could squeak them into the playoffs. And if both return to form, then the club’s postseason chances become even stronger.
Vancouver’s blue line, led by Hughes, is probably one of the 10 best six-man units in the NHL. Hughes and Hronek are one of the best first pairs in the league. Behind them, the Canucks’ bottom four saw a tremendous improvement after a series of midseason transactions beginning in late January. Marcus Pettersson was acquired from the Penguins and instantly stabilized the second pair. AHL All-Star defense prospect Elias Pettersson was called up and emerged as a standout on the third pair. Bringing those two in, while trading away Carson Soucy and Vincent Desharnais, made a night-and-day difference.
Before the bottom-four defense changes were made, the Canucks’ results in non-Hughes minutes were comparable to the Chicago Blackhawks or San Jose Sharks. They were brutally outshot, outchanced and outscored (minus-21 goal differential). After the midseason renovations, however, Vancouver posted a plus-two goal differential in non-Hughes minutes, marking a gargantuan improvement.
You might be wondering: Why didn’t the Canucks shoot up the standings if these changes were so impactful? Well, this is the same time that Hughes, who was playing through multiple injuries, faded down the stretch. Hughes was in and out of the lineup at times, and his performance, understandably, suffered as a result of his suboptimal health. Vancouver was outscored by 10 goals during Hughes’ five-on-five shifts from Feb. 1 onward.
In other words, we haven’t seen yet what this revamped bottom-four defense actually looks like behind a healthy Hughes. That, coupled with a tandem of Demko and Kevin Lankinen, is what the Canucks are banking on as the foundation for the team this season.
Weaknesses that could hold them back: Vancouver’s forward group lacks elite, game-breaking talent. Last year, the Canucks didn’t have a single forward who hit the 55-point mark, which meant the offense was overwhelmingly reliant on Hughes. It was a struggle all year to score goals, and the club wasn’t able to land any substantial upgrades in the offseason — Evander Kane in and Pius Suter out is basically a wash.
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Vancouver’s center depth, in particular, looks shaky. Pettersson has been a bona fide No. 1 center for most of his NHL career, so you’d like to think he’ll rebound, but he’s been a shadow of himself since the 2024 All-Star break. This isn’t a mini slump; it’s been a year and a half since he’s performed like an elite player. Filip Chytil played well after being traded to the Canucks and is skilled enough to be a low-end second-line center, but his durability is a huge concern. Chytil has had several concussions in his career (he most recently got another one late last season), which has resulted in him missing 98 games over the last two seasons. It feels like one bad hit could knock him out of the lineup at any time. Lastly, the club also lacks an established 3C with Suter gone.
It’s also impossible to know whether Demko will be able to stay healthy all season. Vancouver’s No. 1 netminder has a lengthy injury history, even prior to last year. The Canucks have a quality insurance option in Lankinen, who was solid as the club’s starter last year, but this group is likely going to need top-10 goaltending to make the playoffs and that becomes a lot harder if Demko runs into injury troubles again.
Why they could make it: On paper, this is a team with more than enough individual talent to make the playoffs. Between Igor Shesterkin, Adam Fox and Artemi Panarin, the Rangers have a superstar at every position. J.T. Miller and Mika Zibanejad also built some impressive chemistry in the top six after the former’s trade to Manhattan. Miller scored 35 points in 32 games, the duo controlled 55 percent of scoring chances in their time together, and Zibanejad, who had struggled mightily in the first half, was rejuvenated by the shift to the wing, potting 33 points in his final 32 games.
Will Cuylle, 23, is emerging as a premier power forward, and New York would get a huge boost if Alexis Lafrenière can return to the 28-goal, 57-point version of himself (if not better if he gets more PP1 time) that he was in 2023-24. Put all those ingredients together, and you’ve got the profile of a team that could be high-end offensively.
Vladislav Gavrikov’s addition and his marquee shutdown ability should help Fox bounce back and settle down a defensive group that was chaotic and prone to big mistakes last season. Mike Sullivan is also the new coach and we’ve seen this core group thrive with a new head coach bump before.
Weaknesses that could hold them back: The Rangers were one of the most disorganized, dysfunctional defensive teams in the NHL last year. It was frankly shocking to watch at times. Players were lackadaisical and casual all over the ice, with brutal turnovers, half-hearted defensive efforts and rush breakdowns a common sight. It’s one problem to be bad defensively, but it’s a whole other issue when you look like you’re playing as individual mercenaries rather than a team that’s bought in and battling for one another.
It’s also no secret that this is an aging veteran core, with Panarin, Miller, Zibanejad and Vincent Trocheck all at least 32 years old. There’s always a risk that one or multiple of those players could take an unexpected step back.
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Fox and Gavrikov should be a formidable top pair, but after that, New York’s blue line has some question marks. Carson Soucy, for example, could be leaned on to play second-pair minutes on the left side when he’s really best suited for a third-pair role.
A big X-factor that could make or break the Rangers is their power play. New York’s power play was the fourth-best in the NHL from 2021-22 to 2023-24, but it plummeted to 28th last season. There should be enough dynamic skill on this roster to field a league-average or better man advantage this season, but we’ll see.
Other playoff contenders if everything goes right for them: Anaheim Ducks, Buffalo Sabres, Detroit Red Wings, New York Islanders, Calgary Flames
(Top photo of Dante Fabbro and Vincent Trocheck: Joseph Maiorana / Imagn Images)
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Harman Dayal is a staff writer for The Athletic NHL based in Vancouver. He combines NHL video and data analysis and tracks microstats as part of his coverage. Follow Harman on Twitter @harmandayal2
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