By Shayna Goldman, Sean Gentille and Dom Luszczyszyn
Following more than a decade of regular-season dominance, with three Stanley Cup Final appearances, one championship, three Presidents’ Trophy wins and the all-time record for points, the bottom finally dropped out in Boston. After years of many saying the end was near, the end is finally here.
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It should be extremely hard to fail with a core of David Pastrnak, Charlie McAvoy and Jeremy Swayman, but the Boston Bruins found a way. Those three are the team’s biggest hopes of returning to form in 2025-26, but the rest of the team looks more than capable of dragging the Bruins back to the bottom.
Going into last season, we warned that this could finally be the time the Bruins lose a step. We just expected a drop to the wild card, not the bottom five.
Now we have to find the middle ground — a tricky exercise considering the roster upheaval since. The Bruins should be in a better spot than last year’s 76-point finish, but not by much.
A lot depends on just how much McAvoy and Swayman bounce back to their previous franchise-level form. Last season, they projected to be worth 28 combined goals. This year it’s 12. A return to normal wouldn’t be enough on its own to get Boston back to the playoffs, but it would be a strong start that would double the Bruins’ chances.
Until then, it’s better to be safe than sorry, and that makes Boston a playoff long shot at 16 percent. Another bottom-five finish is more likely.
Can Charlie McAvoy get back to a franchise level?
The goal here is not to rehash huge chunks of the Player Tiers discussion. We promise. Still, though, the question is similar, and the framework is helpful: Where does McAvoy, in the fall of 2025, rank among the rest of the league’s defensemen? Life for an NHL team — especially one in Boston’s current state — is easier with a true franchise guy in the fold.
Not long ago, McAvoy fit the bill. In 2022, he was viewed, both by data and league sources, in a class with Adam Fox and Roman Josi, both of whom had Norris Trophies in their recent past. In 2023, he was in a group of his own behind Cale Makar and Fox.
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The logic was that though McAvoy hadn’t quite assembled a monstrous offensive season, it’d happen for him in the near future — and that even if it didn’t, his diverse skillset and unique profile would buoy him. At his best, McAvoy is both a throwback player — size, strength, physicality and intangibles, all in ample quantities — and a thoroughly modern one.
That mega-productive stretch, though, hasn’t come. Part of that is due to the Bruins’ overall dip, going from 135 points to 109 to 76. Part of that is due to their ongoing inability to even sniff replacing Patrice Bergeron, the definition of the rising tide that lifts all boats, as their 1C.
Perhaps the biggest issue, though, is McAvoy’s own limitation on the power play, where the gap between him and ultra-elite peers like Makar and Quinn Hughes is jarring. Last season, Makar and Hughes both put up more than seven points per 60 minutes with the man advantage. Zach Werenski and Evan Bouchard were in that realm. Rasmus Dahlin: a career-best 5.33. McAvoy, though, has declined dramatically year-over-year, going from 6.3 to 3.3 to 1.5 in 2024-25.
It’s not that gaudy point totals are a prerequisite to being a top-10 defenseman, though it certainly helps with awards voting. Players like Miro Heiskanen (whose profile is similar to McAvoy’s but stronger) and Jaccob Slavin (the best defensive D-man in the game but a power-play non-factor) are this season’s examples. Point totals are, though, at least some indicator of offensive dynamism — and offensive dynamism matters, especially for someone like McAvoy. As good as he’s been in his own zone, he’s not Slavin or Gustav Forsling. Zone-entry defense, a strong suit of McAvoy’s not long ago, was a particular problem last season, according to All Three Zones tracking data.
In other words, he seems to lack the offensive ceiling of certain players ahead of him and the defensive ceiling of others, and his overall package isn’t quite as compelling as, say, Heiskanen’s or Dahlin’s. For 2025-26, he’s projected to be a No. 1 defenseman but not a particularly high-end one.
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Can that change in a hurry? Absolutely. We’re talking about a player who doesn’t turn 28 until December. He’s barely a year older than Makar. Improved play and production from teammates would help. So, too, might a different approach to defense under new coach Marco Sturm — particularly with those zone-entry stats. McAvoy is also a foundational player for the U.S. national team and put that on display during the 4 Nations Face-Off. A shoulder injury there turned into an infection that put him in the hospital and ended his NHL season. Now, with a clean bill of health, he’ll certainly be part of the American Olympic team.
Overall, while there’s work to be done, our front office/coaching staff/scouting sources saw a player capable of reversing course and moving more firmly back into the top-10, Norris-ballot discussion.
“He’s got competitiveness and skating and wants to lead,” one scout said. “It’s a big year for Charlie, but Charlie’s a really good player.”
Who is the real Casey Mittelstadt?
We’ve seen Mittelstadt at his best. With Buffalo in 2022-23, after a slow start to his NHL career, he began to show legitimate playmaking ability and a knack for creating scoring chances. He was 11th in the NHL in primary assists per 60 minutes (1.21) and certainly looked the part of a solid middle-six piece.
After similar production in 2023-24, the Colorado Avalanche acquired him with the clear intent of plugging him in as the 2C on a Cup-capable team. Early returns were OK — he put up nine points in 11 playoff games with the Avs — but last season was a mess. Mittelstadt went from scoring at a rate of 2.41 points per 60 down to 1.9 with a sub-45 percent expected goal rate. He bounced between Colorado’s second and third line, never found a permanent spot and was sent to Boston at the deadline, where he finished with six points in 16 games (0.94 per 60). This season, he projects to produce like a third-liner — something the Bruins, at this point, might be wise to take.
The issue is that Mittelstadt is slated to start on Boston’s second line. Whether he plays second- or third-line center is up in the air. If the 2023 version of him shows up, that’ll be passable, but it’s far from a guarantee.
The Bruins’ retool is going to hurt their trajectory in the interim, but big picture, it was necessary.
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If McAvoy and Swayman can return to being franchise-level players, the Bruins should have three strong cornerstones — one at each position — to build around. One of those cornerstones being a top-10 player in the league only strengthens that framework.
Pastrnak has gone from being one of the top goal scorers in the league to one of the most dynamic players, period. He proved that even further last season, despite his surroundings.
“What Pastrnak did with that lineup last year is pretty incredible,” one team executive said this summer. “He had 106 points. The next closest guy on his team had 57 points. That is insane.”
Pastrnak’s elite offensive impact, plus positive defensive marks, add up to a projected plus-18.9 Net Rating for the season. That is more than double the next best value in Boston. And it’s one of the best forward ratings in the league.
Up front, there was one other bright spot in Boston last season: Morgan Geekie.
Playing alongside Pastrnak obviously elevated his game, which would be the case for most players. But what he did in that time is impressive, especially with his priors in mind; Geekie set career-highs in goals (33) and points (57), while having the best expected goal impacts of his career at five-on-five, relative to his teammates.
The Pastrnak-Geekie duo even elevated Elias Lindholm’s game after he got off to a slow start with his new team. In almost 94 five-on-five minutes together, the trio earned a 69 percent expected goal rate and outscored opponents 16-4.
Can Geekie maintain that level? Playing with Pastrnak gives him a good chance, but he doesn’t have the track record to back it up. That’s why he is only projected at a plus-4.9 Net Rating, which is far below league-average for the role. Geekie’s actual level from 2024-25 is closer to the ideal range if he can repeat it.
On the back end, if McAvoy can get back to the level of a true No. 1, that should put Hampus Lindholm in a position to succeed. Injuries shortened his 2024-25 season to just 17 games, but the past couple of years showed how well he fits in with Boston. His quiet, dependable defense raises his Net Rating to a plus-4.6, which is above-average for a No. 2.
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McAvoy and Lindholm’s defensive stability should make life easier for Swayman in net. Without the complications of a contract stalemate and a delayed start to the season, his track record suggests he should rebound from last season’s career lows.
“Demko-Swayman-Saros are tough ones. Each has had good seasons in the past,” one executive said. “Swayman would be the only one I am confident can get back to that ‘star’ level.”
While there is a lot of belief in a Swayman rebound, there is still a level of uncertainty after last season’s performance. Rocky contract negotiations cost him training camp, and after a tough start, he never truly found his footing as the Bruins’ No. 1. His game didn’t just trend down; it plummeted. Swayman went from saving almost 23 goals above expected in 44 games to a GSAx of minus-6.43 in 58 games. That year-to-year inconsistency is concerning, especially without Linus Ullmark to pick up the slack.
If the Bruins intend to spend this season retooling, Swayman’s 2025-26 numbers don’t matter much in the short term. But his caliber matters plenty in the big picture. He is going into only the second year of an eight-year, $66 million contract.
There is more pressure on Swayman to show that he can be The Guy in Boston this year, considering how little two-way support he is projected to have.
Even if Hampus Lindholm can compensate for where McAvoy lacks as a true No. 1 defenseman, the next four defensemen all fall below average in their respective roles.
Nikita Zadorov was overleveraged and overtaxed last season in Boston, and that weighed on his all-around impact. His zone-entry defense, which was a strength in 2023-24, suffered. And he botched more of his retrievals and attempts to exit his own zone.
With a healthy McAvoy and Lindholm, the Bruins can adjust Zadorov’s usage. Sturm’s leadership and system could also help maximize his game. Is that enough? There’s a lot of pressure on Zadorov to rebound for two reasons: He’s only in Year 2 of a six-year deal, and the defensive depth is sketchy below him.
For all Mason Lohrei can do with the puck — and that’s key for a team that ranks 28th in Offensive Rating — his play in his own zone needs work. Henri Jokiharju and Andrew Peeke aren’t stalwarts in their own end, either. Jordan Harris has potential if he makes the starting six, but his two-way play with the Columbus Blue Jackets was suspect.
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If the Bruins’ defense falters, there may not be enough offense away from Pastrnak to make up for it.
Only four forwards have a positive Offensive Rating. Those four also happen to be the only forwards with positive defensive marks. And within that group of four, there are still some red flags.
Impressive as Geekie’s 2024-25 was, shooting almost 22 percent isn’t a sustainable strategy in the future. If he regresses, the team will be pretty starved for goals from anyone not named Pastrnak. The depth below that is pretty bleak.
A full season of Matt Poitras and Fraser Minten should help boost the supporting cast. But as easy as it is to get excited about a youth infusion, these are still two lower-upside prospects.
While Elias Lindholm’s defense was a plus, his scoring has been suppressed for a couple of seasons. No one should expect him to repeat his 42-goal, 82-point 2021-22 season, but a scoring rate in the 2.50 points per 60 range isn’t an unreasonable ask. That was his average in his last six seasons with the Calgary Flames.
Pavel Zacha’s scoring also took a hit, adding him to the long list of players who need to rebound. That list extends to Viktor Arvidsson and Mittelstadt. And while trading for Arvidsson was the exact kind of reclamation bet the Bruins should be making, it’s hard to see how he will pick up the pace in Boston. He didn’t in Edmonton, despite sharing the ice with Leon Draisaitl.
The offseason move that makes far less sense is the Tanner Jeannot signing, considering how little he brings to the table at either end of the ice. You can’t teach size and strength, but there isn’t enough substance below that to justify a five-year contract worth $3.4 million. That signing served as a reminder of past poor decisions that contributed to the team’s current position.
McAvoy and Swayman make glorious returns to being franchise-caliber players, Pastrnak’s dominance continues and a return to health from Hampus Lindholm fuels a return to the playoffs.
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Pastrnak slumps to only 90 points, unable to carry an extremely tepid supporting cast. The team’s depth becomes too much of a burden, and Swayman struggles again behind the team’s weakened defensive structure. The Bruins enter a full-blown rebuild.
If Boston gets the best versions of Pastrnak, McAvoy and Swayman — and that’s a reasonable expectation — some degree of success will still be on the table. Still, Boston’s ongoing issues behind their best players, particularly at center, make it tough to believe in them as a legit contender.
References
How the model works
How the model adjusts for context
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving-Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of David Pastrnak and Charlie McAvoy: Brian Fluharty / Getty Images)
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