Fantasy Hockey
Since goaltending is one of the trickiest positions to project, we wanted to be super detailed with this season’s goalie guide. Last week, we looked at goalies who experienced a glow up in 2024-25, along with rebound candidates for this season. Now, let’s dig into some wild cards and quietly dependable starting goaltenders.
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After saving 25.8 goals above expected in 2023-24 — a mark that ranked fourth-best in the league — injuries derailed Demko’s 2024-25. It took him time to recover and rebound from a delayed start to the season; just when it seemed like he had hit his stride, he was sidelined again. That makes his next season really tricky to project. Demko is healthy and ready to go this year, but will he stay that way? With a solid 1B in Kevin Lankinen, will the Canucks alleviate his workload to keep him fresher for the playoffs? And what caliber of play will he bring to the blue paint after only getting 23 reps last year? Those questions add uncertainty to an already volatile position. So how should you navigate that? The skill is worth trusting, just a little bit later in the draft; make sure you have a solid No. 2 goalie (maybe someone who is at least deployed as a 1A) to round out your crease.
Speaking of volatility in net … there’s Stuart Skinner — a goaltender who has reached back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals. His seasons also tend to be filled with ups and downs. Sure, he found his footing when it mattered most last year, when the Oilers needed him to take over for an injured Calvin Pickard. But then again, he lost his net to Pickard in the first place. The fact that he’s on the Oilers and behind a very good defense counts for something; he will earn wins. Skinner’s a high-risk, high-reward kind of pick.
Gibson is finally out of limbo and has a chance to show he still has the chops to be a No. 1. This will be an interesting test for him. Did his game trend down due to an impossible workload in Anaheim, or is he just well past his prime? Expect him to rise to the occasion in Detroit, after picking up the pace last year behind the Ducks. Gibson earned a GSAx of 11.7 in 29 games last year, while earning a .911 save percentage. The problem? He got injured. He isn’t joining a defensive stalwart, so there are some real question marks. Consider Gibson a No.2 option worth drafting late, not a true No. 1 until he proves otherwise.
Knight hit his stride last year, between Florida and Chicago. He started strong behind a stout Panthers team. Then, he was traded to a completely different environment — from reigning Stanley Cup champs to a rebuilding Blackhawks team that was a disaster in their own zone. Despite such a jarring change in scenery, Knight responded to the move really well; he earned seven quality starts in 14 appearances in Chicago. Expect another year of growth from Knight, who will likely surpass his career-high 38 appearances in one season at the NHL level. But don’t expect perfection. There are generally growing pains when a goaltender takes on a heavier workload, especially behind a defensively challenged team. But if your league awards points for saves, he could be a solid consideration.
Honorable mentions: Arturs Silovs, Jet Greaves
Managers who bought into Gustavsson’s stock after 2022-23 were seriously disappointed by his 2023-24 performance. But last season, he rebounded and showed his capabilities as a starting goalie. In 58 games, his toughest NHL regular season workload, he earned a .914 save percentage and GSAx of 10.9. It was extra impressive, considering how many key injuries the team sustained in front of the blue paint; Kirill Kaprizov missed half the year, Joel Eriksson Ek lost time, and there was a rotation of absences on the blue line. So imagine Gustavsson kicking it up a notch, behind a notoriously sound defensive team that should actually be healthy this season.
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Vejmelka emerged as the starting goalie Utah needed last year. His impact was bigger than just a .904 save percentage and 20.8 goals saved above expected. When the Mammoth leaned on him down the stretch, he stepped up night after night. So while his year-over-year numbers are far from perfect, last season showed what he can do behind this up-and-coming team. Utah will lean heavily on Vejmelka again this year, especially now that Connor Ingram won’t be in the mix. If last year’s an indication of what’s to come, he should bring quality play between the pipes to give a rising Utah squad the support they need in the blue paint.
One of the biggest questions in Ottawa last year was how Ullmark would look outside of Boston, without Jeremy Swayman sharing the workload in net. While injuries shortened his season to just 44 games, he proved to be up to the task when healthy with a 15.6 GSAx and .909 save percentage. The numbers weren’t as sparkling as his Bruins’ era, but they were still very solid. It will help Ullmark if the Senators continue building their defensive structure to support him. If Ottawa can start converting on its chances and provide more scoring, Ullmark can earn more wins, too.
Montembeault hasn’t really played behind a contender, so he doesn’t collect the wins or have the best traditional metrics. He doesn’t get a ton of hype because he doesn’t play a flashy style, either. Still, a look under the hood points to some solid play, especially over the last three seasons. Last spring, that play helped fuel a surprise playoff run in Montreal; in 62 games, Montembeault saved 29.6 goals above expected. His play down the stretch may have been most impressive — 17 quality starts in 20 appearances that added up to a GSAx of 18.9. The Canadiens had a really strong offseason, so there is reason to think their goaltender will be in an even better position to succeed. If Montembeault can build off last year, he should be a solid workhorse option.
Honorable mentions: Adin Hill, Joey Daccord
Data via Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Dom Luszczyszyn, TheStanleyCap, and Natural Stat Trick. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Photo of Filip Gustavsson: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
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Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
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