NHL
Based on the Edmonton Oilers’ training camp roster and early reports from the first days of practice, the team’s minor league affiliate (Bakersfield Condors) is going to be wildly entertaining and could be the most successful edition of the team.
Bakersfield has housed Edmonton’s top minor-league team since 2015-16, with a large number of prospects who have gone on to great NHL success. Names like Leon Draisaitl, Evan Bouchard, Darnell Nurse, Dylan Holloway, Philip Broberg, Mike Kesselring and Stuart Skinner played on the team before arriving as NHL players.
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Last season, the club deployed Matt Savoie in a feature role. His development on the farm may mean full-time work with the Oilers this fall. He could even land in a feature role for the team.
Over many seasons of tracking NHL prospects, trends have developed that aid us in identifying NHL success. Here are the rules of AHL development and how they apply to this year’s Condors.
Over 10 AHL seasons in Bakersfield, Edmonton prospects who have played a significant role at 20 have a high rate of NHL success. Bouchard (7-29-36 in 54 games at 20) leads a strong group of defenders that includes Broberg, Ethan Bear and Caleb Jones. Ryan McLeod and Jujhar Khaira had success with the Condors as centres, and wingers include Savoie, Kailer Yamamoto and Dylan Holloway.
Tyler Benson is an outlier because he enjoyed great AHL success at 20, but lacked the foot speed to succeed in the NHL.
The most promising 20-year-olds this season in Bakersfield will be defenceman Beau Akey, rugged winger Connor Clattenburg and goalie Nathan Day. Akey has the draft pedigree in the group; Clattenburg’s physical style fills the greatest need. Day would seem to be a distant bell based on his junior performance, but the Oilers have been successful in developing goalies (Skinner, Laurent Brossoit) over the past decade.
This category is sometimes referred to as the “tweener” group and is a massive part of the AHL population each season. The group from last year’s Condors who fit this category include Matvey Petrov and Jayden Grubbe. The chances of these players making an NHL impact are poor; it’s possible the organization walks both at the end of their entry deals next summer.
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There are exceptions. Roby Jarventie was 22 one year ago and lost another season to injury. He was on his way to a career in Europe when the Oilers signed him to another contract. His presence in this category is due mostly to injuries, so if he can find a way to stay on the ice, Jarventie could still have an NHL career.
College players often turn pro at 22, meaning their prospect clock begins at just about the same point that CHL grads are reaching a career pressure point in the AHL (Petrov is a current example). The Condors have developed several quality NHL players from the college ranks. Names include defenceman Kesselring, Jordan Oesterle and Noah Philp.
This area of procurement could be the strongest for this year’s Condors. Ike Howard, a highly touted acquisition this summer, arrives in pro hockey at 21 after a scorching season with the Michigan State Spartans (Big Ten). His 26 goals in 37 games are equivalent to 19 NHL goals (in 82 games) and approximately 38 AHL goals (in 72 games). It isn’t known where he’ll play, and he could see Bakersfield only briefly, but if Howard spends most of the season with the Condors, he could break the single-season goals record. It is currently held by Seth Griffith, who scored 30 goals in the 2021-22 season.
Quinn Hutson is another college winger who may make some noise in the AHL this season. He has a reputation for being a responsible two-way player, and popped offensively in 2024-25 with Boston University (50 points in 38 games). He could be in the NHL mix by this time next season.
Damien Carfagna is an under-the-radar defenceman turning pro this fall who could surprise. He has a two-way resume and is a terrific skater. That’s a brilliant combination, and he could fly up the organizational depth chart.
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Philp, formerly of the Alberta Golden Bears, has played effectively for the Condors in recent seasons. He appears poised for an NHL career.
Going back over many decades, the real heroes of AHL development tend to be middle-six forwards and two-way defencemen, along with a few starting goaltenders along the way. These men spend more than one season in the AHL and then blossom to become central to a team’s NHL success.
Goaltender Skinner qualifies here, plus McLeod, Holloway, Fernando Pisani, Jason Chimera and others. These players arrive with real skill but something that needs some work, and apply themselves to the task at hand.
It’s rare for an AHL player to suddenly emerge as an NHL solution past a certain age. This wasn’t always the case. In his book “Hockey In Canada: The Way It Is,” former NHL player Brian Conacher explained the AHL during his era (the 1960s): “As in other areas of modern society, hockey teams too have their generation gaps. This situation stood out on the Rochester team in 1965 which consisted of three groups: the veterans (had all resigned themselves to making the best of their minor league hockey careers), the young ones (who have stars in their eyes and are in the AHL for just a little time, or so they think) and the group somewhere in between (these players kept hoping that a break would come their way and they might get their chance in the “big tent”).”
Oilers general manager Stan Bowman signed two Europeans who are a little old for the Atlantic crossing in pursuit of an NHL career. However, David Tomasek and Atro Leppänen are both substantial talents and could spend little or no time in Bakersfield this year. If they do, these two men would qualify in the “veterans” category described by Conacher.
The Condors should be better this year than in 2024-25, and will absolutely offer the Oilers more attractive recall options than one year ago. Fans should look for players like goaltender Samuel Jonsson, defenceman Damien Carfagna and forwards such as Viljami Marjala and Josh Samanski to show their skills and possibly become recall options.
Bowman and Condors general manager Keith Gretzky should receive abundant credit for upgrading the Condors roster for the coming season. I’ve been observing this team’s minor league system for decades. It has rarely been stocked with a more diverse and interesting group than the one fans will see this season.
(Photo of Beau Akey: Perry Nelson / USA Today)
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Allan Mitchell is a contributor to The Athletic’s Oilers coverage. Veteran radio broadcaster. His blog, Lowetide, has chronicled the team since 2005. Follow Allan on Twitter @Lowetide
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