With Team USA showcasing depth in every facet while boasting the tournament's best defense and goaltending, Finland will be out of its depth against the Americans on Thursday.
The 4 Nations Face-Off continues Thursday, February 13, with a Team USA and Team Finland tilt at the Bell Centre in Montreal.
This battle is a mismatch on paper, and my top USA vs. Finland predictions and betting picks expect it to play out that way on the ice.
My pick
USA -1.5 (-110 at BET99)
My analysis
The Finland blueline is going to miss Miro Heiskanen a lot, and his absence makes an already tournament-worst defense corps considerably weaker.
Finland practicing with five forwards on its No. 1 power-play unit further reinforces the lack of impact bluelines on the roster, and defenseman Urho Vaakanainen has only played 164 NHL games across his seven-year career, while Nikolas Matinpalo has suited up in just 22.
Forward depth is also a shortcoming for the Finns, while it’s a strength of Team USA. Many would also agree that the Americans have the best blueline and goaltenders in the tournament.
Star netminder Connor Hellebuyck paces the NHL with a .925 SV% and 2.06 GAA, and he’s also running the table in the advanced metrics with a league-best 0.64 goals saved above average per 60 minutes, 2.20 adjusted GAA, and 10.1 goalie point share.
By comparison, likely Finn starter Juuse Saros has an underwhelming .898 SV% and 2.95 GAA, as he’s struggled all season long with Nashville.
To put the offensive firepower of the Americans in perspective, Team USA has a third line of J.T. Miller, Matt Boldy, and Brady Tkachuk, and they all boast 30-goal seasons on their resumes. The fourth line of Vincent Trocheck, Brock Nelson, and Dylan Larkin can also say the same.
This is a true mismatch, and I expect it to play out exactly that way.
USA -1.5
Over 5.5
Finland team total Under 2.5
In addition to the highlighted lack of talent on the Finnish blue line, Team Finland also lacks offensive firepower. Mikko Rantanen and Mikael Granlund are the only two Finns inside the Top 50 point producers at five-on-five in the NHL.
As a result, I’m anticipating Finland prioritizing attention to defensive detail at the detriment of generating high-danger scoring chances. Even with the additional defensive efforts, I’m expecting a relentless offensive onslaught from the Americans, and Team USA doing the heavy lifting to cash this Over.
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Neil Parker is, first and foremost, a sports fan. A huge supporter of the Cowboys, Cubs, and Maple Leafs, he has managed to parlay his passion into writing gigs at some of the top websites in the industry.
Neil takes a numbers-based approach to his handicapping and complements his in-depth statistical analysis with a keen eye on the markets to provide the best available odds. He loves to lean on his rolodex of idioms to offset his inner nerd. When it comes to wagering, he throws down on anything that catches his eye at bet365, Betway and BetVictor. He also keeps a close eye on CoolBet because the polar bear brand often has outlier NHL and NFL moneyline prices.
Neil graduated with honors from St. Thomas University in 2007 before completing his BEd at Acadia University in 2010. After teaching a myriad of courses and subjects, he found a groove delivering fun lessons to exceptional learners in non-traditional classroom environments. If his decade-plus teaching run taught him anything about sports betting, it’s to stay the course and use the summer – or offseason – to refresh and prepare to be better in the year to come.
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