DiStefano's selection: Low-scoring hockey goes hand-in-hand with Game 7s, which is why the Under is the way to go in tonight's Panthers-Leafs tilt.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
The puck drops on Game 7 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers at Scotiabank Arena tonight at 7:30 p.m. ET. TNT and Sportsnet have the coverage.
If Game 6 taught us anything, it’s that both teams are afraid to make the first mistake, leading to a well-structured, tight playoff game.
My Panthers vs. Maple Leafs predictions see another low-scoring affair to decide who moves on to the Eastern Conference Final.
Find out why with my free NHL picks for Sunday, May 18.
Game. Seven. The two greatest words in hockey.
The Toronto Maple Leafs kept their season alive with a 2-0 win Friday night, and now have a chance to close out the Florida Panthers on home ice.
I believe home ice plays a significant factor tonight.
The Leafs are 31-15-1 at home this year, including going 4-2 at Scotiabank Arena throughout the playoffs. The Panthers, however, have a pedestrian 24-21-2 record on the road this season, including a 1-2 record in Toronto in this series.
It felt like the Leafs learned what is needed to beat Florida in Game 6, controlling 56% of the expected-goals with a 13-6 high-danger chance discrepancy. If they play like that again, which I think they will, the Maple Leafs will win this game and meet Carolina in the Conference Finals.
My Panthers vs Maple Leafs pick: Under 5.5 (-165 at Sports Interaction)
It’s Game 7 between the Toronto Maple Leafs and Florida Panthers.
The Buds stormed out to a 2-0 series lead before squandering it with three straight Florida wins, then forcing Game 7 with their third win Friday night.
Game 6 showed us what these two teams are capable of when there’s something on the line. Both sides were afraid to make a mistake, leading to a low-scoring, low-event hockey game.
I anticipate a similar approach from both sides tonight, leading me to bet the alternate Under of 5.5 at -165 as my best bet.
Neither side, the Leafs or Panthers, gave up much on Friday night with a series low 19 combined high-danger chances at 5-on-5. Toronto had 13 while Florida was held to just six.
A big reason for this was the number of blocked shots in the game. Florida recorded 10 blocks in the game, while Toronto blocked a staggering 31 shots, allowing only a series-low 22 shots on goal in Game 6.
Both goaltenders have been excellent as well, especially in high-pressure games.
Sergei Bobrovsky has given up just three goals in his last three starts with a .958 SV%. Joseph Woll is coming off a shutout in a win-or-go-home scenario. He’s been outstanding in elimination games throughout his career, posting a 4-1 record, with a 1.13 GAA and a .958 SV%.
So I expect both teams to lock it down defensively and both goalies to do everything they can to get in front of pucks, leading to a low-scoring game of the 2-1 or 3-2 variety — possibly in overtime.
Under 5.5
Auston Matthews 3+ shots on goal
John Tavares 2+ shots on goal
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll mirror our best bet by taking U 5.5 total goals
With the second leg of the SGP, I’ll continue to back Leafs captain Auston Matthews after he led the charge in Game 6 with the game-winner and four shots on goal. We’ll take him to record 3+ shots tonight, a number he’s reached in every game this series, and in nine straight playoff outings.
For the final leg of my SGP, let’s go back to the shot prop market and take John Tavares to record 2+ shots. He is averaging 3.66 shots per game in the series, and this prop has gone 6-0 on this number.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Maple Leafs are 4-2 on the puckline in this series against Florida. Find more NHL betting trends for Panthers vs. Maple Leafs.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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