An explosive American offense (and questionable goaltending) will lead to another crooked number on the scoreboard for this WJC semifinal.
Team USA continues its quest to win a second straight World Junior Hockey Championship gold on Saturday when it faces Czechia in the second semifinal matchup.
Both teams are coming off high-scoring games, with the US dropping a touchdown on Switzerland while the Czechs survived a dramatic upset of host Canada. My USA vs. Czechia predictions expect plenty of goals on Saturday night as well.
See why the Over is the play when these two nations square off at the Canadian Tire Centre in Ottawa, with puck drop set for 7:30 p.m. ET and broadcast on the NHL Network.
Odds courtesy of bet365 as of 1-3.
My best bet: Over 6.5 (+100 at bet365)
It’s no surprise Team USA is an offensive powerhouse at this year’s tournament. The defending champions led Group A with 22 goals in group play — an impressive feat considering no other team in the group topped 10 goals, and they didn’t have a chance to beat up on Kazakhstan — then followed that up by hanging a touchdown on Switzerland in the quarterfinals.
Skill is the name of the game in the World Juniors… and nobody has as much top-end offensive talent as the Americans.
The top line of 2023 first-rounders Ryan Leonard and Gabe Perreault, plus potential 2024 No. 1-overall pick James Hagens, are all teammates at Boston College — and returnees from last year — and have combined for 21 points so in overwhelming opponents both at 5v5 and with the man advantage.
Cole Hutson has been dazzling on the blue line and Zeev Buium is coming off his best effort yet, while Brodie Ziemer, Trevor Connelly, and Cole Eiserman provide additional scoring depth through all four lines.
The biggest boost for Overs, however, has been the issues between the pipes: No. 1 Trey Augustine has struggled with rebound control all tournament, ceding the crease to Hampton Slukynsky, a 2023 fourth-round pick, in the quarters… and he also did not look overly convincing.
That’s good for boosting the offensive potential of Czechia, which ended round-robin play with a tournament-high 25 goals (aided by 14 vs. Kazakhstan) and conceded a Group B-low nine goals.
However, that airtight defense wasn’t as dominant against the upper-echelon teams; the Czechs allowed four goals to Sweden and three to Canada in the quarterfinals, with the Canadians carrying the play at even strength despite being one of the least skillful Canadian rosters in recent memory.
I’m not saying Czechia doesn’t have talent — it’s a roster filled with 19-year-old veterans, features some recent first-round picks in defenseman Adam Jiricek and forward Eduard Sale, and backstopped by arguably the top goaltender in the tournament in 2023 second-rounder Michael Hrabal — but if Sweden and Canada were able to tilt the ice (and find the back of the net frequently)… I can’t see Czechia keeping the Americans at bay.
Team USA should pot 4-5 goals Saturday night, with the Czechs needing to chip in two or three — very possible with the shaky US goalies. Add in that some operators have this Over as short as -130, and I’ll happily take even money on another high-scoring affair.
Over 6.5
USA -1.5
Ryan Leonard anytime goalscorer
A high-scoring game favors the high-octane Americans, so I’m banking on them to cover the puck line as well — something in the 5-3 range of a final is what I envision — which bet365 is still posting at -1.5 whereas other books have moved to -2.5.
USA can get offense from everywhere on the roster, but I’m keying in on Leonard to continue his hot streak. The eighth-overall pick by the Capitals in 2023, Leonard scored twice in the quarterfinals, tallied against Canada, and has found the scoresheet in three of the last four games.
Looking at the composition of the USA top line, Perreault and Hagens are more playmakers, while Leonard is the triggerman. He has a team-leading 12 goals in 16 games at BC this season and isn’t afraid to use his physicality on the ice either — the perfect mix for a goalscorer.
Team USA has scored five or more goals in seven of its last 11 WJC games.
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Before Jared Hochman joined the Covers team in 2020, he worked for newspaper outlets such as the Chronicle Herald and The Coast, worked in marketing for SkipTheDishes and Vivid Seats, and previously ran a magazine. A journalism graduate from the University of King’s College in, Halifax, N.S., “Hoch” brings more than a decade of experience in sports betting, having worked as a freelance handicapper, making appearances on Monumental Sports Network and the Sharp 600 podcast, and now also filling in occasionally as host of Covers’ NHL Puck Props.
Awarded Covers’ company MVP for 2023, Jared is an avid bettor of MLB, NFL, NHL, and NBA, while also wagering on some soccer and WNBA. His best advice for sports bettors? Price shop, which is something he does daily across 10 different sportsbook apps.
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