McDavid may sign a discount extension with the Oilers — but the real contract bomb may come years from now, when he cashes in past his prime.
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Connor McDavid has yet to officially sign his new deal with the Edmonton Oilers, but multiple reports suggest an extension is coming before the end of August. The expectation is a four-year contract worth around $16 – $17 million per season — a figure notably lower than the $19 million he could command at 20 percent of the NHL’s salary cap.
Long-time NHL analyst John Shannon said while appearing on Oilers Now, “Connor is also smart enough to know that if he gets too much, that’s less to acquire free agents and other players for this hockey club.” He added, “That’s what superstars do, who want to win the Stanley Cup.”
“I think Connor’s going to come in lower than a lot of people (think), Shannon told host Bob Stauffer.
For Oilers fans, the news isn’t exactly shocking. McDavid has long been viewed as a team-first superstar, willing to sacrifice some individual earnings to give Edmonton the flexibility needed to contend. By leaving money on the table now, the Oilers can keep pieces like Leon Draisaitl and Evan Bouchard in the fold, while also filling out the supporting cast that’s necessary for another push at the Stanley Cup.
But not everyone is convinced this is in Edmonton’s best long-term interest. The structure of the deal could set up the Oilers for what some are calling a future “contract bomb.”
When this extension runs its course, McDavid will be 33 years old and potentially past his prime. If the salary cap climbs as projected — to $120 million or higher — 20 percent of the cap could equate to $24 million per season. Should McDavid come back after doing the Oilers a favor with this deal and say the favors are over, he could cash in, asking for full market value when the Oilers are less inclined to give it to him.
Edmonton is likely always going to want McDavid, and McDavid is likely to be productive into his 30s, but the Oilers would find themselves paying a premium for a player whose production, while still valuable, may not match the unbelievably high salary he could command. To expect McDavid to go the Sidney Crosby route and sign yet another team-friendly deal is a long shot, even if it’s technically possible.
The reality is, McDavid is going to sign the kind of contract he wants to sign. The Oilers will give it to him. There will be little negotiation, and the idea of the Oilers pushing for a longer-term extension now is essentially pointless. There’ll be no pushing here.
Instead, the Oilers can only hope for one of two things. First, McDavid wants to sign through his mid-30s at a respectable average annual value and lock in for eight years. Edmonton will pay more now, but the deal will look excellent in four or five seasons. Second, the Oilers only want to run the next series of plays with McDavid for four or five seasons. If he can’t win the Stanley Cup in that window, they might be prepared to move on. If so, what he asks for in four years won’t matter because the plan is to trade him.
For now, the Oilers are clearly prioritizing flexibility in the present. McDavid’s team-friendly extension would give Edmonton the best chance to maximize its championship window in the next four years. The risk, of course, is what happens when that window closes — and whether McDavid decides to cash in one final time, leaving the Oilers with a difficult financial puzzle to solve.
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