by | Feb 2, 2025 | 12 comments
Over the past month, I’ve written two pieces examining NHL standings—one on NHL standings point models and alternatives, and another as an NHL half-season roundup. While working on these articles, I noticed a trend: most NHL teams perform better at home than on the road. That observation led me to dig deeper. I compiled data from the NHL API since the start of the 2021-22 season to see if the numbers back up the notion of a “home-ice advantage.”
As of Jan. 31, 28 of the 32 NHL teams have boasted better home records compared with their road records over the last three and a half seasons. The four teams that just missed the mark were within five points of their home records: the Vancouver Canucks (even record), the New Jersey Devils (even record), the Buffalo Sabres (three points under) and the Anaheim Ducks (five points under).
During the 2021-22, 2022-23, and 2023-24 seasons, home teams enjoyed an average boost of 5.5 percent in standings points earned compared with their road performance. Overall, home teams posted a points percentage of .585, while road teams registered .524. That .585 mark is notable because it surpasses the 95-point pace when extrapolated out—a good measuring stick for playoff contenders.
The home-ice advantage extends to all types of wins—regulation, overtime, and shootout. Regulation wins were 6.8 percent higher for home teams, while overtime and shootout wins were 6.5 percent higher.
The data above covers the last three full seasons, and this season is showing similar trends. As of Jan. 31, home teams have benefited from a 6.8 percent increase in overtime and shootout wins compared to road teams, and a 9.9 percent boost in regulation wins. It should be noted that the current season’s data is partial and may be skewed, as the teams have not yet played an equal number of home and away games against every opponent.
Clearly, there is a consistent boost to the home team’s winning percentage. Now the question is: why?
A handful of rules benefit the home team, and while most may not directly affect the game’s outcome, one in particular allows coaches to shine.
When playing at home, the visiting team must put its players on the ice first prior to a face-off. This rule gives the home team’s coaching staff a chance to assess who is on the ice and adjust their lines accordingly—allowing them to dictate matchups. For example, if the away team deploys its top scoring line, the home team can counter with its shutdown line. The only exception is icing; if the home team ices the puck, it is not allowed to change, letting the away team dictate the matchup.
Hockey is a fast-paced sport where line changes happen on the fly, and teams can switch lines in any order during play. The last change rule only applies during stoppages when a face-off is about to occur. During such stoppages, you’ll notice a referee near the team benches: the visiting team has five seconds to make a change before the referee raises their hand and signals that no further changes are allowed by the visitors, and then the home team has eight seconds to adjust before the referee lowers their hand. This rule is outlined in rule 82.2 of the NHL rule book.
In the NHL, players taking a face-off must put the blade of their stick on the ice, making contact with the white part of the face-off dot. Once both players’ sticks are on the ice, the puck is dropped. A common misconception is that the away team must place its stick first. However, according to NHL rule 76.4:
“The sticks of both players facing off shall have the blade on the ice, within the designated white area. At the eight face-off spots (excluding the center-ice face-off spot), the defending player shall place his stick within the designated white area first, followed immediately by the attacking player. When the face-off is conducted at the center-ice face-off spot, the visiting player shall place his stick on the ice first.”
For the home team, the only “benefit” comes at center-ice face-offs, as others are determined based on which zone the face-off is occurring. In theory, if the proper procedure is followed, neither team should have an advantage. In practice, however, the second player sometimes never places his stick on the ice, which can provide an edge. Outside of center-ice, the defending team’s center places his stick first, meaning any home-ice advantage is limited to the center-ice draw.
Looking at face-off data from the 2023-24 season, there were 8,383 center-ice face-offs. The home team won 50.4 percent of these draws, so a benefit, but minor one. This figure may be slightly skewed by the last change rule, as coaches sometimes counter the visiting team’s matchups with lines that are not necessarily their best at winning face-offs. For instance, the Seattle Kraken have typically started either Yanni Gourde’s or Matty Beniers’ line at home. However, Chandler Stephenson leads as the top face-off man, winning 51.7 percent of his draws, while Beniers won 47.8 percent and Gourde 49.9 percent as of Jan. 31.
The last-change rule also applies during 3-on-3 overtime, where controlling matchups is crucial for scoring a timely goal and ending the game. Overall, overtime has favored the home team, which has won 9.6 percent more games in OT than when playing on the road.
If a regular-season game remains tied after regulation and 3-on-3 overtime, it goes to a shootout. The home team gets to choose whether to shoot first or second. Over the last few seasons, home teams have opted to shoot first 85.2 percent of the time.
Over the last three and a half seasons, there have been 317 shootouts. In those contests, the home team won 162 times, and the road team won 155 times—a slim 2.2 percent advantage for the home team. If you only consider the teams that shot first, the advantage grows to 5.34 percent. In recent years, the trend has been that more and more NHL teams have have been choosing to shoot first.
One might think that the home team would prefer to shoot last, allowing it to mount a comeback or finish the game on a goal. However, goaltenders hold the edge in shootouts. It appears that home teams are not so much choosing to shoot first as they are opting to “save last.” League-wide, NHL goaltenders have posted a combined stoppage percentage of .679 in these 317 shootouts—meaning that 68 percent of the time, the goalie is more likely to stop the shot than the shooter is to score. I call this a “stoppage percentage” because it includes missed shots, which are not part of a goaltender’s save percentage but still result in a failed shootout attempt.
The trend continues when comparing penalties called on teams at home versus on the road. For this analysis, I looked at the raw count of individual penalties—not penalty minutes. A minor, double minor, major, or game misconduct each counts as one penalty. Overall, home teams enjoy a 3.2 percent reduction in penalties called against them.
Over the last three seasons, 26 of 32 NHL teams have accrued fewer penalty minutes at home than on the road. When broken down by division, the benefits vary significantly. Atlantic Division teams saw only a 1.1 percent benefit, Metropolitan teams 2.9 percent, Pacific teams 4.4 percent, and Central Division teams 4.5 percent.
The Calgary Flames have enjoyed the largest home-ice advantage in penalty minutes at 9.2 percent, while Canadian teams overall fared well, with 4.5 percent fewer penalties at home, matching the Central Division. It might be a good time to rethink the hockey tradition of booing the referees as they come onto the ice and haven’t actually done anything yet. Statistically, they tend to side with the home team, especially in the Western Conference. I propose Kraken fans start cheering them on before the game.
Enough with the numbers—the biggest X-factor in home-ice advantage is the hometown crowd. Nothing fires up a team more than thousands of fans erupting after a big goal, a crushing hit, or some good, old-fashioned fisticuffs at center ice. That energy feeds into the players, creating a momentum shift that can tilt a game. It’s a dopamine hit for the skaters, and the crowd knows it—fans do everything they can to will their team to victory.
This isn’t just superstition; players and coaches often talk about how a raucous home crowd provides an extra edge. It can be the difference between sluggish legs and an adrenaline-fueled surge late in a tight game. That’s why road teams have a strategy—either silence the crowd with an early goal or grind through the first 10 minutes without allowing one. Survive the opening wave, and the crowd might settle. But if the home team scores first? Expect an onslaught of momentum.
Of course, the flip side is also true—when a home team is trailing, and the crowd starts to quiet, that energy can fade. The best teams learn to ride the wave of home-ice advantage but also generate their own spark when things aren’t going their way.
Overall, the last change and shootout options come down to the coaching staff’s ability to capitalize on the slight advantages presented to their team. The Kraken have seen a 2.1 percent boost in their performance at home, making use of the home-ice advantage. In the penalty department, Seattle has 2.3 percent fewer penalties called on them at home than on the road. Both numbers are positive for playing at Climate Pledge Arena, but they fall short of the league averages of 5.5 percent for standings points and 3.2 percent for penalties.
While these boosts might seem modest, they do add up over the course of a season. There’s one more key factor that could tilt the scales for the Kraken, though: us—the fans.
What are your thoughts on home-ice advantage? Put them in the comments below.
Blaiz Grubic is a contributor at Sound Of Hockey. A passionate hockey fan and player for over 30 years, Blaiz grew up in the Pacific Northwest and is an alumni of Washington State University (Go Cougs!). When he’s not playing, watching, or writing about hockey, he enjoys quality time with his wife and daughter or getting out on a golf course for a quick round. Follow @blaizg on BlueSky or X.
Interesting set of facts and Statistics. Thanks!
Although as far as the Kraken are concerned. The second season when they almost went to the Western Conference Finals, They played much better on the road than at home. Including an incredible a 7 game road trip when they won every game.
Yep, That 7 game road trip is a good memory. There are pockets of teams that succeed more on the road for a season here and there and the Kraken 2022-23 season is definitely one of them. Because of that season the Kraken home/road point totals are close to the break even. They have 148 points at home and 142 on the road (as of Jan. 31). This is why I aggregated data across multiple seasons, to smooth out the one-offs.
I would be curious about the relationship between the depth and deployment of that 100 point team and how that might have affected the “last change” advantage.
That would be interesting to correlate, not sure offhand how to get that data easily. There are ways to do it with shift charts, but would be pretty manually. Nino calls out teams with top heavy lineups, so might be something that were you can look at average ice time per line and teams with larger 4th line ice time compared to top heavy ones.
With Seattle especially at that point we had a pretty deep bottom 6, helps a lot with one the road matchups.
The teams with good top units would definitely benefit more from a home rink last change, that is if their coach is able to get the matchups he wants.
The home ice advantage to me is definitely the last change and good coaches do a better job making that an advantage. It’s not just the last change it’s the play before the whistle, what lines are on the ice what advantage could there be to just getting a whistle and getting a matchup that could favor you from it. Example short sift your first line let another line tire out the best D paring then throw your top line back out on last change at a time that might not be expected. Lots of different strategies can be used to help you get the matchups that benefit your team but I don’t really see Seattle making those kind of efforts.
I feel that as much as people say that the crowd booing bad calls etc doesn’t help I think it makes a difference, it at least makes them wonder if they missed something and throughout a game it could impact a call.
I was thinking about the impact of booing the refs at the start of the game, but booing perceived bad calls could have some psychological impact as well. Fans generally expect a makeup call when a soft call is made, so maybe the home town booing helps push the refs in this direction.
“The Calgary Flames have enjoyed the largest home-ice advantage in penalty minutes at 9.2 percent, while Canadian teams overall fared well, with 4.5 percent fewer penalties at home, matching the Central Division. It might be a good time to rethink the hockey tradition of booing the referees as they come onto the ice and haven’t actually done anything yet. Statistically, they tend to side with the home team, especially in the Western Conference. I propose Kraken fans start cheering them on before the game.”
Only a day later, this paragraph did not age well. Anyone want to join me in a rousing chant of, “refs, you suck”? What a hosing!
Yes, definitely was not a great game to pair with a home ice advantage article. Lol.
No kidding what a horrible called game. I’m still trying to figure out how we ended up going 2 men down after the failed challenge? The slash or whatever it was happened before the puck went into the net, that first penalty should have been cancelled when the puck went into the net.
Bjorkstrand was serving a penalty for McCann. A penalty was called on Oleksiak, then Calgary scored. At this point Bjorkstrand had like 30ish seconds remaining on the penalty and comes out of the box as his penalty has less time on it and Oleksiak goes in, so a new 2 minute penalty. Then the Kraken challenged for goaltender interference and failed. Which gives them a second 2 minute minor for a full 2 minutes of 5-on-3.
Hope that helps.
Thanks, I thought that the penalty was over. That makes sense.
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