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It’s been just over three weeks since the July 1 frenzy, and teams settling into their rosters for the upcoming season. I’ve got some quick hit thoughts to share, and will do so after recapping the Avalanche’s moves.
Here’s everything we’ve seen from Colorado since the beginning of June:
1. Most teams are pretty much set, but I still stand by my thought that we’ll see more notable movement before opening night. There are too many teams with too many questions for it to not happen.
Maybe arbitration settlements will re-engage clubs. For example, the Maple Leafs seemingly have too many bottom six forwards and another in RFA Nick Robertson, who has an arbitration date on the horizon.
What are they going to do with their roster?
2. I believe two things have frozen the trade market. One, way too many teams think they’ve got a shot at the playoffs, and it might take 15–25 games until reality settles in for some of the bottom feeders.
I always like using the 2022-23 St. Louis Blues as an example. Nobody expected that team to drop off the way it did coming off a competitive second-round series against the Avs. But they did, and it led to Vladimir Tarasenko and Ryan O’Reilly, among others, being moved before the deadline. I would’ve never imagined either of those two leaving St. Louis.
So which team(s) will it be this time? If the Predators start terribly again, I’d imagine Barry Trotz might decide to blow it all up. Will Steve Stamkos be made available? Jonathan Marchessault? O’Reilly? Teams will actually have the cap space to add guys like that with term.
That’s just one of many examples of how quickly a team can adjust its plan and make really good players available for trade.
And second, I just think GMs are taking a bit of a breather. Maybe most of them are using late July to spend time with their families before getting back to it. There are no actual deadlines right now.
3. UFA’s Jack Roslovic, Victor Olofsson, and Matt Grzelcyk are all way too good to not be on opening night rosters. Even Joel Kiviranta is still out there. At some point, these guys are all going to sign, and maybe teams who miss out on them will start to maneuver.
4. Which brings me to the Avs. Their total moves since the Nelson deal are not all that many. They cleared cap space for a reason, and I’m still intrigued to see what they do with it.
I understand the frustrations of losing Coyle and Wood without any NHL players coming in, but the cap space will be used. Whether it’s now, in September, or during the year. I do think we’ll see something happen.
I would’ve loved to see Coyle stay, but I can’t stop thinking that the team probably didn’t feel like they were going to utilize him in a way to justify that cap hit. Now they have flexibility.
5. Speaking of flexibility, PuckPedia currently has the Avs listed at just over $4.1 million in available cap space. It’s actually slightly more than that because this also accounts for Stienburg, Ivan Ivan, and Tye Felhaber. They probably won’t be on the roster when all is said and done.
Anyway, more importantly, that $4.123 million is actually $18+ million in trade deadline cap space. They finally have the ability to make mid-season and deadline moves without needing to account for salary retention.
It’s a far cry from last year, when they were barely able to add Erik Johnson’s $1 million cap hit at the eleventh hour.
This management group has spent years making moves with little space. Now they have space, albeit not many assets. But still, more will come.
6. Speaking of which, I’m fascinated at the two targets they were reportedly interested in until the very end. They already had a plan to use their cap space.
It sounds like they were the runner-up in the Jonathan Toews sweepstakes, and it’s clear they had him targeted as their 3C.
Toews made his decision a week before Coyle was traded. That means the Avs were looking for a 3C well before the draft and that trade with the Blue Jackets. That also reminds me that even if they start the season with Jack Drury in that slot, I don’t think they’re going to end the year like that unless it goes very, very well.
They were also in on Nikolaj Ehlers until the end, and that one is even more fascinating. The Avs have their top six locked up. Valeri Nichushkin, Nathan MacKinnon, Brock Nelson, and Gabe Landeskog are all under contract for the foreseeable future. Artturi Lehkonen, making just $4.5 million for two more years, is a big hit at that number.
So, was the Ehlers move a sign that they’re not close on an extension with Martin Necas and are entertaining the idea of moving him? It’s the only reasonable scenario I can think of. Otherwise, it would’ve meant Lehkonen is downgraded to the third line, which kind of makes sense but also doesn’t. He should absolutely be a staple in the top six, if not the first line.
7. So where are we with Necas anyway?
I like the player — despite what some think — and I’d love to see him get a full season with MacKinnon. But I don’t like him as much as Mikko Rantanen, nor do I think he should be making anything close to Rantanen money. It defeats the purpose of that trade and not just paying your superstar.
Again, the Ehlers thing makes me wonder. What are they planning here? Why were they targeting Ehlers in the first place?
8. How many of Yegor Chinakhov, Mason McTavish, and Marco Rossi are actually going to get moved before opening night? I’ll say one.
9. Let’s talk about the defense a little bit. Is Brent Burns instead of Ryan Lindgren enough change on the blueline? I don’t think so, and I can’t imagine the front office believes so either.
I still can’t stop thinking about an eventual Samuel Girard trade. And no, that doesn’t mean I hate the player. It just seems like the scenario that would make the most sense given the Manson extension and recent Burns and Malinski contracts (obviously Cale Makar and Devon Toews are untouchable).
It just seems like we’re in an era where teams are more interested in bigger defensemen than someone like Girard.
10. Not saying there are any reports or rumors connecting the two, but if I had to pick a reasonable option to get in a trade involving Girard, it would be Seattle Kraken’s Jamie Oleksiak.
There are others, but this would be an option that will probably be available at some point and is a pending UFA at the end of the year.
Oleksiak played really well under Dave Hakstol (not that Hakstol is going to run the defense in Colorado.)
Colton, Girard, and a sweetener for McCann and Oleksiak.
I suspect it would take considerably more than that for McCann and Oleksiak.
I also think that a lot of the “available” trades will only happen if a team is desperate enough to overpay. Too many teams willing to trade good players, but only for a super high price. The reality is they are not really on the trade market. Another one today is Pavel Zacha. Is Boston really looking to trade him? I would love for him to be an Av and would have preferred him to Coyle, but my guess is that Boston will be asking too high a price.
Another problem is so many teams have a surplus in cap space. Not as many teams this year with the cap increase need to shed salary. So there aren’t those usual cap casualties & teams getting squeezed into moving guys they don’t want to really move.
Dallas is the only one in that spot that comes to mind. And obviously they aren’t doing those types of deals with the Avs.
The thing about cap space & salary flexibility is in theory it’s great. But when you have virtually no real tradable assets outside of a few guys on your roster (Necas, Girard, etc). Who already make substantial money. What good does 7 plus million in unused cap space well after July 1st really do for them? And out side of two prospects (Nabokov & Gulyavev) & a 1st in 27. They have nothing that will bring back anything of value. Going into the off – season after they re – signed Nelson. All they really needed to do had they… Read more »
Aarif? Do you think its possible that Mackinnon’s reputation as a teammate could affect some players in coming here? The food thing a couple years ago was laughed off, and the bench incidents don’t seem that big. However, the players do talk behind closed doors, and it would not surprise me if many guys just don’t want to play with him especially if the facts are actually worse than the rumors.
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