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Last Updated: April 21, 2025 4:21 PM EDT • 6 minute read X Social Google News Link
Will the upstart Montreal Canadiens make life difficult for the Eastern Conference’s top seed at Capital One Arena in Washington, D.C., tonight (7 p.m. ET, ESPN) for Game 1?
The Canadiens will look to put early pressure on the Caps to sow a seed of doubt after ending the season on divergent trajectories. Our Canadiens vs. Capitals prediction and NHL picks jump on a few concerning storylines for the latter entering the postseason tonight.
👉 For more playoff predictions and expert picks, check out: Stanley Cup Predictions and odds
📡 How to watch Canadiens vs. Capitals live Game 2
📅 Monday, April 21
🕗 7 p.m. ET
📍 Capital One Arena (Washington, D.C.)
📺 ESPN, Sportsnet | 🛜 ESPN+, Sportsnet+
📈 Check out our Canadiens vs. Capitals matchup page for full team stats and betting line history.
✅ Against the spread pick: Canadiens +1.5 (-165 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐⭐
✅ Moneyline pick: Canadiens (+164 via DraftKings) ⭐⭐⭐
✅ Over/Under pick: Under 5.5 (+110 via bet365) ⭐⭐⭐
The Canadiens are playing with house money after making it to the postseason. Touted before the season as a potential Eastern Conference bottom feeder, the Canadiens ascended to relevance after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. Martin St. Louis’ team tied the Tampa Bay Lightning for the fifth-best record (15-5-6) since Feb. 22.
They’ve impressed me so much that my long-shot alarm is on high alert. One thing could scupper the Canadiens’ chances of upending the Caps: They are markedly inferior on the road, losing seven of the last nine in enemy rinks.
However, the Caps – with the 13th-ranked home record (17-11-3) since Feb. 2 – weren’t as good at home during the regular season, which could negate the Habs’ road deficiencies.
Depending on whether the Canadiens can channel their exuberance and turn it into a strength, inexperience could be their second fatal downfall.
Make of it what you will, but the Capitals were comparatively abysmal down the stretch. I discussed the reasons for their regression in my best underdog bets in Round 1.
I’m interested to see whether Spencer Carbery’s team, one of the most consistent before the end of March, can flip the switch and recapture their dominant form. Based on some worrying stats down the stretch, I have my doubts.
The Caps, among the Stanley Cup odds contenders, had the third-worst goals differential above expected (-16.38) while allowing the third-most goals per 60 minutes 5-on-5 (3.11) over the last 20 games. They also had the eighth-worst PDO and ranked 23rd in goals percentage.
The Habs haven’t been as happy with their goaltending since Carey Price was forced out of the lineup. Samuel Montembeault is 13-3-4 in his last 20 games, sporting a .912 save percentage and a 2.48 goals-against average (GAA).
For the Caps, things aren’t as stable. Their long-term playoff success is predicated on having Logan Thompson between the pipes. Thompson missed the last seven games of the season with an upper-body injury. While back at practice, his availability for Game 1 is still unconfirmed.
It could take Thompson a while to return to his best, even if he wins the race against time. Charlie Lindgren was 20-14-3 with a 2.73 GAA and an .896 save percentage. He was one of the reasons his team struggled in the waning weeks, with an .878 save percentage and a 3.11 GAA in his last eight starts.
✅ Best bet: Canadiens ML (+164 via DraftKings)
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Monday’s game marks Caufield’s first trip to the postseason since his rookie season, when the Habs lost in the Stanley Cup Final to the Tampa Bay Lightning. He must be at his best for the Habs to win Game 1.
With at least three shots in six of the previous seven meetings against the Caps, I expect Caufield to channel his best version. He hit the Over in six of the 10 games down the stretch, and a winning $10 bet at FanDuel will yield an $8.33 profit.
💰 Best odds: -120 via FanDuel
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Cole Caufield player prop odds
There is no way the Habs are in the playoffs without their captain and primary difference-maker. Suzuki was exquisite down the stretch, scoring the fourth-most points (37) in the last 26 games, 22 of which were assists. Suzuki posted at least one helper in six of the previous eight games against the Capitals.
BetMGM and DraftKings offer the longest odds of our best sports betting apps (-105), where a $10 bet will profit $9.52.
💰 Best odds: -105 via BetMGM
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Nick Suzuki player prop odds
Strome led the Caps with 53 assists in 82 games during the regular season. His assists dried up in the last meaningless stretch, where he posted two in the final five games. Beforehand, Strome notched at least one helper in five straight. He has three assists in the last four games against Montreal.
At DraftKings, you can get even-money odds for Strome to secure at least one helper.
💰 Best odds: +100 via DraftKings
Dylan Strome player prop odds
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Latest Canadiens vs. Capitals odds from our best sports betting sites.
Opening odds via BetMGM.
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