NHL
It’s hard to stay at the top, especially in a salary cap world. Thirty-one other teams all want a piece of the reigning Stanley Cup champs. Sometimes, instead of finding new ways to emulate success, teams want to outright replicate it by signing players with championship experience, no matter the cost.
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Most would have handed Sam Bennett a blank check. Aaron Ekblad, one of the few top-four right-handed defenders, could have signed to be a number one elsewhere. And anyone would have welcomed Brad Marchand’s Rat King energy.
But the Panthers have created something special in Sunrise. A few extensions (and a couple of low-key signings) later, Florida is looking to start a dynasty. That makes them one of the biggest winners to start free agency.
It seemed like the Panthers were going to have to pick and choose which of their big-name free agents to extend. Instead, all three are sticking around long-term. The Ekblad contract is incredibly team-friendly; he projects to be worth his cap hit in at least seven of eight seasons. The Bennett deal is a bit of an overpayment based on his regular-season play, but there’s no question that he is an absolute dawg in the playoffs, which has been pivotal to the team’s success. And Marchand couldn’t have been a better fit in Florida, showing exactly what he has left in the tank.
Taxes can be a factor in the contract process. But it’s not everything. Players are more willing to take a hometown discount when the team creates a winning environment everyone wants to be a part of. Pair that with management’s strategy of interchanging depth roles with inexpensive contracts (from Oliver Ekman-Larsson on the third pair to Nate Schmidt last year and now Jeff Petry) and everything is staying sunny in Florida.
It doesn’t matter how well Marner played for stretches of the playoffs. The negatives outweighed the positives, from a disastrous Game 5 performance against the Panthers that pushed the Leafs to the brink of elimination, to a disappointing Game 7.
But now, the good, the bad and the ugly of his Maple Leafs tenure are behind Marner. It’s the start of a new era in Vegas.
The Golden Knights are a perfect landing spot for Marner. The team craved help on the wings, and they found someone with elite playmaking ability and Selke-caliber defense. The test now is whether or not he can bring that regular-season energy to the playoffs.
The pressure is still there to perform, it’s just different now. There is no more discussion on what his next contract will look like, or whether he’s just in it for the money. Marner didn’t choose to sign for $14 million with a bottom-feeder. He signed for $12 million — the same as Mikko Rantanen — to stay in the contender’s circle. It’s still superstar money, without the pressure of being the highest-paid winger in the league.
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And as cutthroat and competitive as Vegas’ front office is, it’s a completely different environment than the Toronto market. And that should help Marner settle in and play to his strengths, instead of worrying about all of the constant noise around him.
With Marner signing early, it makes Nikolaj Ehlers the best winger on the market — and now he is one of the big winners of the day. There are a lot of teams in need of someone with his offensive creativity, so now he will have his pick of the best situation and contract.
It’s a good year to be a blueliner.
The market was already thin heading into the offseason. Most big-name pending UFAs extended early, from Shea Theodore, Victor Hedman and Jaccob Slavin, to Esa Lindell, Marcus Pettersson, Jake McCabe and Jakob Chychrun. That made every remaining top-four defenseman that much more valuable.
While the Panthers extended Ekblad with a team-friendly deal, the Blue Jackets signed Ivan Provorov to a premium at $8.5 million a year for the next seven years, when his market value is closer to $3.8 million over that span. Then, a little after the market opened today, Vladislav Gavrikov cashed in with a seven-year, $49 million contract that looks like a fit for the Rangers.
Pricey defensive contracts went to the restricted free agent class too, with Noah Dobson (eight years, $9.5 million AAV), Alexander Romanov (eight years, $6.25 million AAV), Evan Bouchard (four years, $10.5 million AAV), and Martin Fehervary (seven years, $6 million AAV). Each contract carries an element of risk and upside.
The defensive market is always interesting, and the rising cap added another level of intrigue. The signings over the last week have recalibrated the market, which should have a ripple effect for a 2026 class that includes Rasmus Andersson, Jake Walman and Mario Ferraro, along with RFAs Thomas Harley and Jackson LaCombe.
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Montreal had taken a lower-key approach throughout this retooling process. Instead of taking big swings, management prioritized drafting and developing a core and finding reclamation projects for support.
But after last year’s post-4 Nations turnaround and push to the playoffs, the Canadiens are making moves.
Sometimes, a playoff appearance can give a team the wrong idea about its trajectory. It can inspire big-name free agent signings to accelerate the process, instead of finding players whose timelines actually align with the team’s. That isn’t the case in Montreal.
The Canadiens have taken two measured swings: Noah Dobson and Zachary Bolduc. The team is in the right position to start flipping future assets for players that will help now and in the long run. Dobson is exactly that: a difference-maker from the back end. And Bolduc is a savvy addition to the middle-six; he really found his footing in the Blues’ post-4 Nations run with 13 goals and 18 points in 26 games.
It started with the Yanni Gourde extension in Tampa Bay early in June. A six-year deal for a 33-year-old may seem odd, but there’s a method to the madness. That allowed the Lightning to sign him for $14 million, but keep the cap hit down to $2.3 million. It doesn’t matter what happens in those later years, because the Lightning’s window will be closed by then. And if he ends up retiring early, so be it.
It’s a trend that a handful of other teams are taking note of. At 34, John Tavares will earn another $17.5 million, split across four years. That lowers his cap hit from $11 million last year down to $4.4 million, which is incredibly team-friendly for a second-line center. The same applies to Matt Duchene’s four-year deal in Dallas; a $4.5 million contract should help the Stars navigate their own cap crunch.
Jake Allen could have commanded more money upfront on a shorter-term deal if he had reached the market. Instead, his $9 million extension is spread out over the next five years for a $1.8 million AAV.
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The key with these contracts is that they were all signed before the players turned 35. So when (or if) they retire before the conclusion of the deal, it won’t count against the cap.
That isn’t the case in Florida, with Brad Marchand’s six-year extension that takes him to 43 years old. But if that’s what it takes to keep his cap hit to $5.25 million, so the Panthers can maintain cap flexibility in this window of contention, it’s worth it.
Usually, teams at the bottom of the standings can leverage cap space to spend big in free agency. And while stars usually don’t bite, supporting players do.
The Sharks signed Tyler Toffoli and Alex Wennberg last year. Tyler Bertuzzi and Teuvo Teravainen joined the Blackhawks. Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson signed in Seattle.
This year, despite so many rising costs in free agency, it has rarely been the case. There have only been a few exceptions, like Christian Dvorak in Philadelphia, Mikael Granlund in Anaheim and John Klingberg in San Jose.
Those signings can be pretty important for rebuilding teams. It’s a way to ensure their up-and-coming stars have actual NHL-caliber talent around them for support. It’s a way to add eventual trade assets that can be moved at future trade deadlines. And it’s a way to help reach the cap floor around entry-level and inexpensive contracts.
The market isn’t closed just yet. There are UFAs to sign, RFAs to target with offer sheets, and trade options for contenders against the cap. But it’s a different feeling from last summer, when more players were willing to sign for more, even if it meant playing meaningless hockey for a time.
The goalie market was incredibly weak this year. Igor Shesterkin, Linus Ullmark, Jake Oettinger, Joey Daccord, Mackenzie Blackwood, Logan Thompson, Frederik Andersen, Adin Hill, Juuse Saros and Karel Vejmelka all extended early. That took essentially every single elite goalie, bona fide starter and 1A off the market.
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The Allen extension took another name out of the mix. With David Rittich, Dan Vladar, Alex Lyon and Anton Forsberg all finding new landing spots, it leaves teams with a bleak list of free agent options that includes Ilya Samsonov, Alexandar Georgiev, Spencer Martin and James Reimer.
With the Red Wings freeing John Gibson from Anaheim and the Canucks extending Thatcher Demko to a pricey short-term deal, the trade market isn’t booming, either.
So the teams that need help in net, like the Oilers, are going to have to get creative this summer because a short list of options is almost nonexistent now.
Between extending Morgan Geekie and Mason Lohrei to fair contracts, and buying low on Viktor Arvidsson, the Bruins got off to a solid start this offseason.
Until the Tanner Jeannot contract.
The Bruins aren’t the first team to overvalue Jeannot. Just think back to 2023 when the Lightning traded a first, a second, a third, a fourth, and a fifth for the winger.
The difference now is that Jeannot isn’t one year removed from an encouraging 24-goal campaign, where he proved to be a combination of secondary scoring and physicality. As misguided as that was in terms of acquisition cost, the player fit made some sense back then.
But over the last three seasons, it’s become abundantly clear that Jeannot’s 2021-22 scoring was just a flash in the pan. He couldn’t replicate it in Nashville, Tampa Bay or Los Angeles. Instead, he has settled into a bottom-six role and doesn’t thread the needle much on either end of the ice.
According to Evolving-Hockey’s model, he was projected to sign a four-year deal worth $2.7 million a year, on average. His market value is even lower, at $800,000.
Instead, the Bruins signed him for five years, with a $3.4 million cap hit.
The Bruins could’ve extended Brad Marchand to make him a Bruin for life and instead they’re spending their money like this on July 1. pic.twitter.com/BOlR4yPPNd
— dom 📈 (@domluszczyszyn) July 1, 2025
Boston may be in a position to bet on reclamation projects as the team retools back into the playoff picture. But that doesn’t mean they should commit five years to someone who doesn’t show a lot of potential to be a difference-maker, either.
There are always missteps and mistakes in the early goings of free agency. But the biggest loser on Day 1 is clear: the Kings.
The Andrei Kuzmenko extension was a promising start to the offseason, considering how well he fit in Los Angeles post-deadline. But on July 1, management made not one but two questionable defensive signings: Cody Ceci (four years, $4.5 million AAV) and Brian Dumoulin (three years, $4 million AAV).
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Welcome to the Ken Holland era.
There is value to being a minute-eater who can go up against top competition. That kind of player can help a team maximize the rest of their blue line. Oftentimes, that player’s underlying numbers aren’t going to be pretty. Ceci’s numbers weren’t in Dallas last year, and the difficulty of his minutes is a big reason why.
But at the end of the day, it holds a contender back when they trust someone like Ceci to play those minutes in the first place. That was true in Dallas this spring and Edmonton last year. Now, expecting him to do that at 31 years old and beyond is extremely short-sighted.
Dumoulin doesn’t look cut out for that role, either. At this point in his career, he should exclusively be playing sheltered minutes on the third pair. Instead, he could be viewed as a lefty to step up in Gavrikov’s absence.
Maybe the Kings’ structure can help insulate Ceci and Dumoulin. Maybe having Drew Doughty and Mikey Anderson on the top pair will limit their usage to more fitting roles, too. It just doesn’t make any sense to get older and slower after getting burned by the Oilers’ pace and scoring in each of the last four years.
It doesn’t make sense to have three one-dimensional defensemen in the starting six, either, between Joel Edmundson, Ceci and Dumoulin. Just ask the Stars how well that worked for them while Miro Heiskanen was sidelined.
The Kings needed to make bold changes this summer to get past the first round, but management has taken them in the wrong direction so far.
Data via Dom Luszczyszyn, Evolving-Hockey, HockeyViz, HockeyStatCards, All Three Zones, Natural Stat Trick and TheStanleyCap. This story relies on shot-based metrics; here is a primer on these numbers.
(Top photo of Tanner Jeannot, Sam Bennett and Brad Marchand: Jessica Alcheh / Imagn Images; Jared C. Tilton / Getty Images)
Shayna Goldman is a staff writer for The Athletic who focuses on blending data-driven analysis and video to dive deeper into hockey. She covers fantasy hockey and national stories that affect the entire NHL. She is the co-creator of BehindtheBenches.com and 1/3 of the Too Many Men podcast. Her work has also appeared at Sportsnet, HockeyGraphs and McKeen’s Hockey. She has a Master of Science in sports business from New York University. Follow Shayna on Twitter @hayyyshayyy
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