NHL
The wackiest day on the NHL calendar has come to a close. Now it’s time to look at the best and worst from the start of free agency.
As usual, it’s a lot easier to find deals that fit the “worst” list compared to the “best” list. That’s the nature of the open market, where the highest bidder is usually the one left holding onto a very expensive mistake. Still, it’s not all bad. Getting a great player without giving up assets is still a win, and there are some under-the-radar adds that should provide some positive value, too.
Here are the five best and five worst signings from the start of the offseason.
The big fish
Now that the NHL is exiting the flat-cap era and entering a cap-growth era, talent acquisition has arguably become just as important as spending discipline. With so much cap space available, just getting the guy is a big deal.
That’s within reason, and we’ll get to that on the other side, but it’s hard not to love the Golden Knights and Rangers landing the biggest fish on the market in Mitch Marner and Vladislav Gavrikov. Vegas fills a massive need, adding to its core with a two-way superstar winger, while the Rangers fill their own with a defensively stout partner for Adam Fox. Two teams with lofty ambitions got their guys and that’s a win in and of itself.
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What sets these deals apart is that, on paper, they were also pretty damn good. Especially compared to what was rumored for both Marner (over $13 million) and Gavrikov (over $8 million). Both ended up signing for almost their exact worth. These were more than fair prices and on July 1, for the best players, it’s hard not to say anything but “bravo” for both signings.
The hometown discount
With how little actually happened on July 1, we’re going to make several exceptions for this list. One of them is Aaron Ekblad’s new deal, which will pay him just $6.1 million for the next eight years. Ekblad could’ve easily commanded $8 million on the open market and he probably would’ve been worth it too. This is, without a doubt, a massive win for the Panthers, who get to keep the band together for several more runs.
A lot of people will clamor about the “no state tax” advantage here and there’s a kernel of truth to that. But this goes beyond that because Ekblad left money on the table even with that considered. The Panthers have several advantages that they’re able to stack on top of each other, making the Ekblad deal possible only for them.
That starts with knowing how to price players. They know how to negotiate because of that, they know how to create a winning roster because of that, and they can keep building on top of that in an endless cycle of good deals. Players want to win, players are willing to take less to win, and Florida provides the best opportunity. Sprinkle the no state tax discount on top of that and it becomes an easy decision where the discounts become obnoxiously large.
That’s where Ekblad’s deal lands. Florida is home for Ekblad and it’s also where he’s gone back-to-back with a chance to build a dynasty. That’s worth all the millions (and more) he could’ve gotten somewhere else.
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Great RFA bets
This may be cheating, but the best deals in this league are almost never for UFAs — they’re for RFAs. We got proof of that with three massive signings over the last two days for Evan Bouchard, Matthew Knies and Logan Stankoven.
Bouchard is one of the absolute best offensive defensemen in the world, serving as rocket fuel for Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. He helps make them better with his dynamic puck play from the back-end and he only elevates his game further in the playoffs. In a world where Noah Dobson gets $9.5 million and Jakob Chychrun gets $9 million, having Bouchard for just $10.5 million is a steal. And that’s true even if it’s only for four years and even if he’ll make some Big Mistakes along the way.
In Knies and Stankoven, the Maple Leafs and Hurricanes made big bets on potential — both of which have a strong shot of panning out. Knies looks like he may become one of the NHL’s premier power forwards and having him locked up for the next six years at a reasonable price is terrific. The Leafs finally get good value on a core forward’s second contract. As for Stankoven, the Hurricanes are paying him second-line money on an eight-year extension that kicks off in 2026-27. With the cap set to explode and Stankoven’s legitimate star upside, it’s a savvy bet that has the potential to provide a massive return. If he can become a top-line talent, it could become one of the league’s best deals, period.
These deals don’t come without risk. But that risk is well worth the potential reward in a growing cap world. In this league, it’s almost always better to bet on what a player will likely become than what a player was. While other teams spend big on the back half of a player’s career, these deals take on the player’s prime. Pay for their best, not their worst.
Cheap depth defensemen
While many teams spend July 1 shelling out tons of money for defensemen who aren’t very effective, the best bet is usually to scour the bargain bin. That’s how Florida got Oliver Ekman-Larsson two years ago and Nate Schmidt last year.
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It should come as no shock that the two-time defending champs decided to employ the same strategy this offseason with Jeff Petry. While he may no longer be top-four caliber, he should be more than fine in a sheltered role. At league minimum, Petry is a valuable add.
A few others that fit that bill: Mike Reilly signing for $1.1 million in Carolina, Pittsburgh nabbing Parker Wotherspoon for $1 million and Detroit adding Jacob Bernard-Docker at $875,000. None are big needle-movers, but they can be fine in a third-pair role. For the price, it’s a lot more sensible than what some of the more desperate teams are doing, paying $3 million or more for comparable on-ice performance.
The question marks
Not being sure how actually good a player is can often be a market inefficiency that can be exploited this time of year. The brand-name guys get overpaid based on reputation. These guys? They usually get underpaid due to an air of uncertainty about whether they’re legit or not. Now, that obviously adds some risk where maybe the target really isn’t that good, but it does leave some room for error. The other bonus: the term is usually short too, leaving some flexibility if it doesn’t work out.
This year, the best candidates for that are Andrei Kuzmenko, Jonathan Drouin and Dante Fabbro. All three look like they can be top-of-the-lineup contributors, with Kuzmenko and Drouin offering second-line ability and Fabbro establishing himself as a top-four guy. Their numbers are good, they’ve looked good, but some caveats create question marks. Can Kuzmenko be a consistent producer? Is Drouin just a byproduct of Nathan MacKinnon and Cale Makar? Can Fabbro drive a pair?
Those are all reasonable questions to ask, but at the prices paid — right around $4 million, there’s very little actual risk to the deals. At worst, they’re modestly expensive third liners or third-pair guys. In a growing cap world where Miles Wood’s salary can be cleared with ease, that’s no longer an issue. With Kuzmenko and Fabbro, we know the fit is there, too, which helps. As for Drouin, there’s a potentially great fit next to Bo Horvat with his name on it.
The other big fish
I don’t want to harp anymore on Ivan Provorov than I already did with his contract grade. Good player, bad deal — don’t need to beat a dead horse.
On the other hand, that was before seeing Gavrikov’s deal, which comes in $1.5 million cheaper for the same length. Ouch. There’s no doubt who the more valuable defensemen is between the two, right? That comparison puts Provorov’s deal further into perspective and not in a good way. The Blue Jackets were able to keep their big fish fed and happy enough to stay, but at a truly exorbitant cost.
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The opposite of a hometown discount
I don’t know what the word is for the opposite of a hometown discount, but the Canucks got one in Thatcher Demko. Yes, he looked franchise-calibre two years ago, but that’s sandwiched by two years where injuries took a serious toll on his game. After an .889 save percentage where Demko was only able to play 23 games, was an $8.5 million AAV really warranted?
The Canucks did well to keep the term short given the unpredictable nature of goalies in general and with Demko in particular. But it does feel like they should’ve gotten a much better deal on the cap hit, considering the season Demko is coming off of. Combine that with the deal they recently signed for Kevin Lankinen, and there’s a lot that doesn’t make sense about Vancouver’s approach here. Paying $13 million for potentially mid goaltending starting in 2026-27 doesn’t sound ideal.
Tough RFA bets
Not every RFA bet is made equal. Even with team control, there’s still room for error if a team misevaluates what they have. That’s easier on defense, where a lust for size can lead to ignoring actual on-ice quality. Kevin Bahl and Nicolas Hague are two prime examples of that. How either player is getting over $5 million is beyond me.
Even with the cap growing, a $5 million cap hit should still be reserved for defensemen who can actually play in the top four. It’s fair to be skeptical that either Bahl or Hague can do that to an effective enough degree to be worth it. While Bahl was in that role for the Flames last season, that was out of necessity more than merit. Bahl’s presence there was part of the reason the Flames weren’t a very good hockey team. As for Hague, he struggled in third-pair minutes with Vegas last season, making him a difficult bet to move up the lineup on a worse team. To Hague’s credit, he’s at least been close to the calibre of a No. 4 defenseman in the past, but the Predators should be paying for what he is now — a fine third-pair guy — not what he used to be.
Expensive depth defensemen
Oh, Ken Holland, you couldn’t resist, could you?
The veteran GM put his stamp on the Kings with two high-risk bets on the back end in Cody Ceci and Brian Dumoulin at the combined cost of $8.5 million. At that price, it would’ve been better to just overpay Gavrikov — at least you know he’s a rock-solid top-four defenseman. These guys? Not so much. Maybe they were at one point, just not anymore.
Ceci’s underlying numbers have been rough for years, but in Edmonton, he at least had the tough minutes excuse. For the Oilers, he offered mostly fair value with that in mind, but it was evident during the 2024 Stanley Cup Final run that Ceci’s game didn’t have much left. During the 2024-25 season, he struggled mightily with the Sharks and was just as poor with the Stars. It’s possible that Ceci does better in the Kings’ defensive system and bounces back, but at his age and this price, it’s a bad bet.
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The same thing goes for Dumoulin, whose inability to play in the top four has been made exceptionally clear over the last few years. In a sheltered role with the Kraken, Dumoulin thrived. But that wasn’t the case in Pittsburgh or Anaheim, where he was tasked with a much larger burden.
If Ceci and Dumoulin end up as the Kings’ third pair, they can probably work just fine. Given the price paid, it looks likely they’ll be asked to do a lot more and it wouldn’t be a shock to see this duo as the Kings’ opening night second pair. Woof. Between these two and Joel Edmundson, Los Angeles’ blue line is in dire straits with guys who can’t do a lot with the puck. That probably won’t cut it in the playoffs.
Just because guys used to play top-four minutes doesn’t mean they can still play that role. Or that they should still be paid to that level. In Ceci and Dumoulin, Holland made a difficult bet that looks very unlikely to pay off.
Shocking money for a replacement-level player
I am not sure how the Tanner Jeannot deal happens in the year 2025. Did the Bruins learn nothing from Barclay Goodrow or Miles Wood and the perils of paying too much and too long for a depth guy? Did they learn nothing from the Lightning trading a whole draft class for Jeannot a few years ago? Have they witnessed Jeannot’s own play over the last few years?
At this stage of his career, Jeannot is a replacement-level guy who moves the needle way too far in the wrong direction. It’s absolutely indefensible to pay him third-line money for the next five years, especially mere months after the team reportedly nickel-and-dimed their captain into going elsewhere.
It’s been a long time since Jeannot has been a top-nine player, and while there’s a small chance he gets back to that level, the Bruins made way too rich of a bet to find out.
(Top photos of Ivan Provorov and Mitch Marner: Joseph Maiorana and John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Dom Luszczyszyn is a national NHL writer for The Athletic who writes primarily about hockey analytics and new ways of looking at the game. Previously, he’s worked at The Hockey News, The Nation Network and Hockey Graphs. Follow Dom on Twitter @domluszczyszyn
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