With Mitch Marner fired up to reach a major milestone in his career, it's the Toronto Maple Leafs coming in with a heightened level of motivation to clinch the Atlantic division as they take on the Buffalo Sabres.
This article contains predictions for an old game!
Tonight, the NHL betting slate includes 10 games, featuring a matchup between the Toronto Maple Leafs and the Buffalo Sabres at the KeyBank Center.
Mitch Marner is one point shy of 100 and I expect for him to be motivated to reach that milestone tonight against a team he’s piled up the points on throughout his career.
Find out why with my Maple Leafs vs. Sabres predictions and NHL picks for this April 15 matchup.
My Leafs pick: Mitch Marner Over 0.5 assists (-125 at Sports Interaction)
My Leafs analysis
The Toronto Maple Leafs will be highly motivated in Buffalo tonight with a chance to clinch the division title with a win.
After years of struggles against this underdog Buffalo Sabres squad, Toronto appears to have finally cracked the code on Buffalo going 2-0 against them this season and now looks for the series sweep tonight.
However, despite the ups and downs over the years, there has been one Maple Leaf that has consistently dominated Buffalo, and that’s Mitch Marner.
The Leafs winger has 34 points in 27 career games against Buffalo, including a point in each matchup earlier this season, totaling three assists in those games. In fact, assists are the preferred way of accruing points for Marner against Buffalo, as 27 of his 34 points have been helpers, including 16 of them in his last 10 meetings– five of which were multi-assist games.
Buffalo is coming off a game in which they surrendered seven goals to the playoff-bound Tampa Bay Lightning. They’ve lost three straight, allowing an average of 4.3 goals per game. The Sabres are also turning to Ukko-Pekka Luukkonen in goal, who has an .820 SV% in his last six starts.
So, there should be ample opportunity for the Buds to muster up some offense and for Marner to find his way on the scoresheet.
Additionally, Marner should be highly motivated to secure a point tonight, as he’s just one shy of reaching the 100-point plateau for the first time in his career. Based on his career goals-to-assists ratios, there’s a 70% chance it comes via an assist.
Mitch Marner Over 0.5 assists
Auston Matthews anytime goal
Leafs puck line
For the first leg of our SGP, we’ll mirror our best bet with Mitch Marner’s 2+ shot prop. With him being one point shy of 100, I can envision him being motivated to shoot the puck a bit more today.
Next, we’ll take an Auston Matthews anytime goal. He has eight goals in his last seven games against Buffalo, and it would be poetic for Marner’s 100th point to come on an assist on a tuck from AM34.
For the final leg of my SGP, let’s take the Leafs -1.5 on the spread. A win clinches the division for Toronto, and the Buds seem to have Buffalo’s number lately, winning four straight games against the Sabres, going 3-1 on the spread in those contests.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
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Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction
The Over is 6-2-2 in the last 10 games played between the two clubs. Find more NHL betting trends for Maple Leafs vs. Sabres.
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Mike DiStefano joins Covers after a successful five-year stint with TSN. Distefano hosted Leafs Lunch, a Toronto Maple Leafs-centric radio show which featured a daily best bets segment where he found the biggest and best value plays of the night. He was also a weekly staple on TSN’s flagship radio/tv show “OverDrive” as a betting analyst during their NFL picks segment #TeamAl-DogForever.
A graduate of Centennial College’s Sports Journalism program, Mike has also contributed to the Canadian Baseball Network, FanSided, and The Hockey News.
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