NHL
PITTSBURGH — Business is about to pick up.
Kyle Dubas, Pittsburgh Penguins general manager and president of hockey operations, is eager to intensify the team’s reshaping. He wants the organization to regain its winning status as soon as possible.
This week presents a significant opportunity to make a meaningful impact.
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The Penguins will pick 11th in the first round of the NHL Draft on Friday, their highest pick since taking Derrick Pouliot eighth in 2012. They also could have the 12th pick, depending on what the New York Rangers decide. They’ll also have a second-round pick and three third-round picks.
With the opportunity to add five or six quality assets, this week already would have been important to the Penguins. However, much more is at play.
Dubas expects to be busy on the trade market.
What does all of this mean?
Dubas isn’t looking to acquire draft picks or prospects. Instead, he’s interested in bringing in young NHL players who, for whatever reason, aren’t long for their current teams. Teams looking to be aggressive or those dealing with salary cap problems are most likely to be in conversations with Dubas.
Keep the Utah Mammoth in mind as a team that might do business with Dubas.
An Erik Karlsson trade is very much on the table. The Penguins have concluded that, after two seasons, Karlsson wasn’t what this roster needed. Moving forward, Karlsson, now 35, is not part of the Penguins’ long-term plans, despite having two years remaining on his contract.
Although many general managers will balk at Karlsson’s $10 million salary cap hit, there is interest in the three-time Norris Trophy winner.
The Penguins may need to retain a small portion of Karlsson’s salary to finalize a deal. They also need to receive Karlsson’s approval, given his no-movement clause. So, there are hurdles, but there’s a real chance it could happen this summer.
If Karlsson returns next season, Dubas won’t be disappointed. The Penguins believe Karlsson could be better under the direction of a new coaching staff.
But if Karlsson is willing to go, and if a dance partner comes calling, the Penguins won’t keep him in Pittsburgh for the duration of his contract.
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I don’t believe much has changed regarding Rickard Rakell.
He was available during the trade deadline last season, but only for a significant price. The same mindset remains.
Many Penguins fans were miffed that Dubas didn’t trade Rakell in a seller’s market at the deadline. However, the Penguins didn’t receive offers close to what they’d anticipated for Rakell, and interest in him wasn’t overwhelming. There was interest, but not as you may have expected, given Rakell’s season.
Things could change this summer because the salary cap is increasing significantly. In particular, if teams are willing to part with a talented, young NHL player as part of a package, Rakell could be had.
But he won’t come cheap.
We are now eight days away from Bryan Rust’s no-movement clause expiring.
Why is that so significant?
There is considerable interest in Rust. There has been for a long time.
General managers around the NHL — especially those in charge of young, talented teams knocking on the door of contention — are ravenous to add Rust to the fold.
Why wouldn’t they be?
How many players will score 25 or more goals a season while being outstanding penalty killers and excellent leaders and showing up bigger than the rest in the biggest of games? Rust is wildly valuable.
The question then becomes: What kind of offer would Dubas require to move him? A few months ago, I was under the impression that Rust would never be traded — that he and Sidney Crosby would be the last men standing from the Cup teams a decade ago.
Now, I’m not so sure.
I don’t have the sense that Dubas wants to trade Rust. After all, he should be good for many more seasons. His departure will make the Penguins significantly worse in the short term.
There’s also the reality that Crosby, who wants to win sooner rather than later, wouldn’t be thrilled with the move.
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However, team sources said Dubas will move Rust if he gets the right offer. Rust is not untouchable.
If Rust is traded, it would most likely be at the trade deadline, when Dubas could create a bidding war. It’s difficult to say what an acceptable return for Rust would be. I’ve been told neither Rust nor Rakell is the least bit unmovable.
In general, Dubas wants the Penguins to become bigger and tougher to play against. He is not blind to the success of teams such as the Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning in recent seasons, to say nothing of other championship teams, like the Vegas Golden Knights.
All of those teams were big, durable and miserable to play against. Dubas’ Penguins are small, easy to play against and not exceptionally durable.
Of course, Dubas isn’t opposed to acquiring skill or talent. However, he wants the Penguins to become much more challenging to deal with.
The desire to make the Penguins bigger and tougher is likely to show itself in the draft, free agency and on the trade market.
So, about that Rangers No. 12 draft pick.
Currently, the Rangers have the 12th pick. If they’d like, they can keep that selection. Doing so guarantees that the Penguins own the Rangers’ first-round pick next year. The Rangers also have the option to give the Penguins the 12th pick this year, which will allow the Rangers to keep next year’s pick.
What will New York do? We’ll find out soon enough. The deadline for the Rangers to tell the Penguins of their intentions is coming on Wednesday evening. Most people in the Penguins organization expect the Rangers to keep the 12th pick, which will give the Penguins the New York first-round pick in 2026.
The Penguins are perfectly fine with that scenario. Naturally, they are prepared to use the 12th pick on Friday, if they receive it. As far as the Penguins are concerned, it’s a win-win for them.
(Photo of Bryan Rust: Bruce Bennett / Getty Images)
Josh Yohe is a senior writer for The Athletic covering the Pittsburgh Penguins. Josh joined The Athletic in 2017 after covering the Penguins for a decade, first for the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review and then for DKPittsburghSports.com. Follow Josh on Twitter @JoshYohe_PGH
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