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By Brady Trettenero in NHL Hockey
Published:
The confetti’s barely settled in Sunrise, but Brad Marchand’s free agency drama is already stealing the spotlight.
Fresh off his second straight Stanley Cup and a near-miss on the Conn Smythe Trophy, the 37-year-old pest is about to get PAID. And rightfully so.
Marchand torched the playoffs with 10 goals and 20 points in 23 games, including that overtime dagger against Toronto that flipped the entire series. Now he’s looking at contracts north of $8 million annually, a massive jump from his previous $6.125 million deal.
Let’s break down where hockey’s ultimate agitator lands next and find the smartest bets in this wild free agency market.
The Panthers opened as 19-1 longshots to keep Marchand. Now they’re the favorites at +270. That’s what winning championships together does: it changes everything.
The Rat King’s message to Panthers GM Bill Zito at a Dairy Queen appearance Friday? “Give me a contract!”
Toronto sits second at +380, ready to throw serious money at a guy who’s tortured them for 15 years. Only Gordie Howe has more playoff points against the Leafs than Marchand’s 37. Talk about Stockholm syndrome.
Odds as of June 20, 2025 at FanDuel. Use this FanDuel promo code when making any NHL futures bet.
Florida’s implied probability of retaining Marchand is only, as the cap math looks tricky. But Marchand was practically born to be a Panther.
The fit is perfect. Panthers fans literally throw plastic rats on the ice to celebrate goals. Marchand’s nickname is “The Rat” and he plays like one, although he’s cleaned up the shenanigans over the years. Still, it’s almost destiny that Marchand closes out his career in South Florida.
Sam Bennett credited Marchand’s leadership as a key part of their championship run. Matthew Tkachuk found his perfect partner in crime. The chemistry is undeniable, and Marchand’s made it clear he wants to stay.
“I love you, brother. Best thing in the world.”
This embrace between Brad Marchand and Matthew Tkachuk moments after Florida won the Cup 🔥 pic.twitter.com/lyFbR8v9YT
The important thing to remember when making your prediction is that Florida’s tax advantages matter. Marchand’s been transparent about it – “If you have two teams that are offering the same contract, you’re going to pick the team with less tax.”
A $7.5 million deal in Florida nets him more than $8.5 million in Toronto. That’s real money, especially for a guy chasing his last big payday.
Yes, the Panthers have tough decisions with Sam Bennett and Aaron Ekblad also needing new deals. But GM Bill Zito said Tuesday night he thinks they can bring everyone back. When you’re chasing a three-peat, you find a way.
Top Marchand Next Team Pick:
Imagine Marchand in a Maple Leafs jersey. I’ll wait while you throw up a little.
But actually makes some sense when you really break it down. As it stands right now, A $100 wager on Toronto at +380 returns $38 in profit. There’s real value here if you believe the two sides can come to an agreement.
With Mitch Marner likely departing, Toronto’s sitting on over $25 million in cap space. GM Brad Treliving wants to change the team’s “DNA,” and there’s no better way than signing the guy who’s eliminated them multiple times.
Brad Treliving’s comments on the DNA of the Leafs needing to change. pic.twitter.com/j1vfaBQJ1e
Marchand brings exactly what Toronto lacks: playoff grit, leadership, and the ability to score when it matters. He’s fourth all-time in playoff goals during the salary cap era with 66. The Leafs desperately need that clutch gene.
Plus, the endorsement opportunities in Toronto would be massive. Marchand’s been clear about maximizing his earnings both on and off the ice. No. 63 jerseys would fly off the shelves.
The storyline alone is worth the price of admission. But Marchand’s already denied reports linking him to Toronto, so let’s pump the brakes a little bit.
A few teams at longer prices in the Marchand next team odds deserve attention.
Boston at +1900 can’t be completely dismissed. Yeah, the relationship went south when they traded him after 16 years. But Don Cherry’s stirring the pot with conspiracy theories about a secret one-year agreement to return.
It’s probably nonsense. One insider said bluntly: “I can’t see a way he returns to the Bruins. That ship’s sailed.” The Bruins are rebuilding, and Marchand wants to win now. Maybe he finishes his career there eventually, but not this summer.
And here come the ‘THANK YOU BOSTON’ chants for Marchy 😂
Bruins fans you may want to keep scrolling. pic.twitter.com/flztUacAwj
Vegas at +1900 makes sense if they miss out on Marner. Marchand’s playoff pedigree fits their win-now mentality perfectly. But they’re clearly prioritizing younger options first.
The real wildcard? Utah at +1900. They need veteran leadership and someone to bring personality to their serious locker room. Marchand’s clutch scoring might’ve pushed them into the playoffs last season.
Carolina’s got $28 million in cap space but sits way down the board. They could use Marchand’s experience to finally break through in the playoffs. However, we’re predicting they win the Marner sweepstakes, which would almost certainly price them out of Marchand.
Value Pick:
Lead NHL & NCAAF Editor
Brady is the lead NHL and College Football editor at Sports Betting Dime, where he specializes in betting odds and data-driven analysis. Brady has over 10 years experience working in sports media, with work published by outlets such as ESPN, CBS Sports, Yahoo! Sports and Fox Sports.
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