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🏆 Playoffs
Last updated: April 20, 2025 6:54 AM EDT • 6 min read
It’s the first-round series people wanted, and it’s probably the matchup the Ottawa Senators and Toronto Maple Leafs desired, too.
The puck will drop on the first Battle of Ontario in 21 years when the Maple Leafs and Senators square off tonight at Scotiabank Arena (7 p.m. ET, ESPN2). 
Our Senators vs. Maple Leafs prediction and NHL picks give the home team a slight advantage due to their recent outstanding patch on home ice while expecting superb goaltending from both sides.
👉 For more playoff predictions and expert picks, check out: Stanley Cup Predictions and odds
📅 Date: Sunday, April 20 
🕗 Time: 7 p.m. ET
📍 Location: Scotiabank Arena (Toronto)
📺 TV: Sportsnet, CBC, ESPN2
💻 Streaming: ESPN+, Sportsnet+
📈 For full team stats and betting line history, follow our Senators vs. Maple Leafs matchup page. 
🎯 Score prediction: Maple Leafs 3, Senators 1

The Maple Leafs finished the season with a league-best 13-2-2 stretch and will enter the playoffs against their regular-season bogey team bursting with confidence. The Sens outscored the Maple Leafs 9-3 in the three-game season sweep and had the third-best record (15-5-2) since March 5. 
While both teams won’t be short of self-belief, I give the Game 1 advantage to the Maple Leafs, who culminated the campaign with seven straight victories at Scotiabank Arena. The -156 odds at FanDuel don’t offer much value, with a winning $10 bet profiting just $6.51, so I’m focusing my attention on Under 5.5 goals. 
Two of three regular-season meetings ended with five goals or fewer, with the exclusion going Over due to Michael Amadio’s empty-net goal. Down the stretch, the Maple Leafs played stingy defense at home, resembling their early-season selves at Scotiabank Arena. In their seven-game win streak to end the season, they allowed a league-best 1.43 goals per game. It was quintessential Craig Berube hockey, which will be ramped up even more in the postseason. 
Stolarz, the confirmed Game 1 starter, has been almost impenetrable in his last nine starts. Winning eight of nine, he posted a .943 save percentage and a 1.55 goals-against average (GAA). That stingy streak is just part of his sterling resume, with the Maple Leafs’ No. 1 also thriving on home ice.
In his 19 home games, a lower total due to his midseason injury, Stolarz sported the fifth-best save percentage (.932) on home ice and the third-best GAA (1.86). His last four games at Scotiabank Arena were even better, with Stolarz registering two shutouts, a .940 save percentage, and a 1.41 GAA. 
While Ullmark hasn’t been as good on the road this season, his two starts in Toronto went exceptionally well. He shut out the Maple Leafs 3-0 in November, turning aside 27 shots and finishing with a spectacular 3.78 goals saved above expected. While his second start was much quieter, he finished with a respectable 0.5 goals saved above expected, allowing two goals on 23 shots. 
Most of our best sports betting sites offer -110 for the Under, which would profit $9.09 on a winning $10 bet. 
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Nylander had at least three shots in his last four playoff contests, and he is a shooting machine against the Senators, hitting the Over in seven straight meetings.
The 2.5-shot total is conducive to an Over, as the Maple Leafs’ top goal scorer from the regular season will be looking to create a spark early and often. You can lock it in at BetMGM, whose -130 odds would yield a $7.69 profit on a $10 bet. 
🔢 William Nylander player prop bet odds
It’s the time of year when Matthews must shine for the Maple Leafs to get past the Senators. He finished the season with 45 assists, one short of his career-best despite missing 14 games through injury. Matthews hasn’t had a lot of success against the Senators lately, but still managed two helpers in the previous four meetings.  
The Maple Leafs captain posted two assists in his last two playoff encounters, and I expect a spirited display on Sunday. A few of our best sports betting apps offer -105 odds, implying a 51.22% probability.  
🔢 Auston Matthews player prop bet odds 

Stutzle finished the season on a tear, scoring seven points in his last three games. He’s even more prolific against the Maple Leafs, whom he has at least one point against in six of the previous seven contests, amassing nine points in that stretch. FanDuel offers -138 odds, the longest of our best sportsbooks. A winning $10 bet will profit $7.25, and it’s only a three-star play with the limited overall offense I expect from the visitors in the opener.   
🔢 Tim Stutzle player prop bet odds
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🛒 Shop around for the best Senators vs. Maple Leafs odds from our best sports betting apps.
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Opening odds via BetMGM.
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