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Welcome back to NHL Predictions, where we break down matchups, analyze stats, and pretend we have the foresight of a veteran goalie in a shootout. Tonight, it’s the Tampa Bay Lightning vs. Ottawa Senators, which means two teams fighting for playoff seeding. Will the Lightning roll through the Canadian capital like a Florida hurricane, or will the Sens rise up and play spoiler like they were born to do? Let’s get into it.
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Daylight Time (EDT)
TV: TSN5; Fan Duel Sports Sun; ESPN+
The Bolts are heating up like a Tampa beach in July. Nikita Kucherov is leading the league in points and treating defences like speed bumps. Jake Guentzel has six goals and five assists over the last 10 games. He continues to carve up opposing blue lines with the efficiency of a sushi chef. Add in Victor Hedman casually quarterbacking the power play, and you’ve got a recipe for destruction.
NHL Predictions thinks if Tampa can establish their transition game early and get their feet moving, Ottawa’s defensive structure (or lack thereof) could collapse faster than a paper umbrella in a Hawaiian drink. Tampa doesn’t need 40 shots to beat you—just a few power plays and some open ice. And then there’s Andrei Vasilevskiy, a.k.a. The Big Cat. He hasn’t been vintage Vasi all season, but he’s still better than most goalies on their best day. Ottawa loves to fire shots from the perimeter—Vasi eats those for breakfast.
The Sens are hanging on to the first wild-card spot, but they’re only five points ahead of the next four teams fighting to get either of the two seeds. Brady Tkachuk (29 Goals/ 26 assists) is the heartbeat of this team. He’s big, physical, and fully capable of dragging his team into a fight they didn’t even want to be in, like a Rocky 37 movie. Though he’s listed day-to-day, if he’s throwing hits, causing mayhem in front of the net, and jawing at Point or Kucherov, you know Ottawa’s trying to set the tone.
Tim Stützle has the kind of wheels that could give Tampa’s defence headaches. He has 21 goals and 50 assists for the Senators. If he gets loose in transition or draws penalties with his speed, Ottawa could sneak in a few goals.
But let’s be honest: the key is in net. Anton Forsberg has given up seven goals in his last five games. So, the Sens will need him to channel his best inner brick wall. Tampa creates high-danger chances like it’s a hobby, so Ottawa’s goalie better be ready for 30+ shots—and not the easy ones.
Tampa has too much firepower. They’re deeper, more experienced, and better structured in all three zones.
Prediction: Lightning 5, Senators 3
(Expect some late-game fireworks and at least one moment where Brady Tkachuk tries to fight a guy on line buying peanuts.)
Tampa will look to stay hot heading into the playoff race, and Ottawa? Well, they’ll look to make it weird, physical, and just chaotic enough to pull an upset and stay in playoff position.
If the Lightning can stay disciplined and avoid the dreaded “afternoon nap game energy,” they should come out on top. But if the Sens muck it up and Tkachuk starts throwing bodies like he’s at WrestleMania, buckle up.
Main photo by: Kim Klement Neitzel-Imagn Images
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Joe Rendace is an entrepreneur and sports writer. He resides in FL and is actively creating new content for Sports, Novels, Screenplays and Podcasting.
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