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My friends, the 2024-25 NHL season is still going as the Islanders navigate their pivotal offseason. Tonight’s Game 4 of the NHL Western Conference Final should be full of drama as the Dallas Stars attempt to knot the series at two games.
A month ago, the Edmonton Oilers were left for dead as they fell into a 0-2 hole versus the Los Angeles Kings. They then rose like Lazarus and rattled off four straight wins, eliminating the Kings. They then made quick work of the Las Vegas Golden Knights.
Now, according to FanDuel Sportsbook’s current NHL odds, the Oilers are the second-shortest shot (+145) to win the 2025 Stanley Cup. Edmonton can get one step closer to the Cup by throwing the Dallas Stars into an almost insurmountable 3-1 crater.
Here’s how I’m betting on tonight’s Game 4 of the NHL Western Conference Final.
The Edmonton Oilers have scored the first goal in every game so far this series. And other than Game 1, where Dallas scored five unanswered third-period goals, the Oilers have strangled the Stars’ offensive attack. In games two and three, Dallas scored only one goal.
Scoring the first goal tonight is crucial for the Stars to stop the Oilers’ momentum. A first goal, especially within the first ten minutes, will silence the raucous Edmonton crowd and force the Oilers to attack. Edmonton mistakes could follow.
A first Dallas goal will also give goalie Jake Oettinger a chance to settle in. Oettinger, who’s been rock solid for the Stars through two rounds, has been under siege through most of this series, letting in 12 goals on 76 total shots.
Dallas needs to get off to a hot start tonight, and I expect they will.
Edmonton goalie Jeff Skinner has an inconsistent reputation. He’ll play like a Vezina-winner for a stretch, and then a switch flips, and he’s as leaky as a Ford Pinto.
Skinner is playing extremely well right now, allowing only one goal over the previous two games. While Edmonton has shown a far more serious commitment to team defense during these playoffs, the Stars are getting their chances.
Through three games, Dallas averages 9.7 high-danger scoring chances at even strength. Skinner has just been that good.
Dallas also knows they can’t win this series, or this pivotal game, if they don’t stop McDavid and the Oilers’ offense.
Look for a strong defensive effort from the Stars, plus another strong game from Skinner to keep this total under 6.5.
I’m taking a flyer on this bet, but I think it makes sense, given how I predict tonight’s game will play out.
I expect a tight-checking slog, as Dallas is playing for its life. With limited chances and a hot Jeff Skinner, this game could easily be a 2-2 slugfest at the end of the third period.
While no Western Conference Final game has yet extended into extra periods, the Oilers have played three OT games these playoffs. I like the chances of this one going into overtime.
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