NHL
NHL Playoffs
By Sean Gentille, Dom Luszczyszyn and Shayna Goldman
Everyone loves a rematch until things start to go stale — and this year’s Western Conference final is a nice blend of holdover talent, new blood and fresh storylines.
Edmonton’s megapowers are back … but all of a sudden, they have a more well-rounded supporting cast. Dallas’ deep cast of quality NHL players is mainly intact … and now they have a new alpha dog leading the pack.
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Can Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl hurdle Dallas on their way to another Stanley Cup Final? Will Mikko Rantanen and co. flip the script? It’s time to see who’s the best in this year’s West.
You guessed it, folks — it’s another close series. Half the series in these playoffs have featured 55-45 odds or tighter. It’s coin-flip city, and the clash between the Stars and Oilers likely will be no exception.
Maybe it comes down to luck, maybe it comes down to who wants it more, maybe it comes down to which team brings its best at the right time. From the outset, though, it’s anybody’s to lose. Sorry if that’s boring analysis, but that’s how it often is at this stage of the playoffs — and the hockey is better for it. Series aren’t won on paper, but that’s especially true when two teams are so closely matched.
At full strength, the Oilers are probably the better team and carry a slight edge for a reason. They showed as much last spring and could do so again this year, given how they’ve rolled recently. But the Oilers won’t be at full strength to start and the Stars have home-ice advantage. That could be enough for revenge.
Few teams can stack up to the Stars’ plus-36 Offensive Rating. The Oilers are one of the few; their plus-50 Offensive Rating leads the entire playoff field.
The Oilers were one of the best offense-generating teams at five-on-five in the regular season; their 2.88 xGF/60 ranked second to the Hurricanes. But Edmonton struggled to convert those chances into goals, especially after the 4 Nations Face-Off break. That hasn’t been a problem this postseason, though. The Oilers have flipped a switch and poured on offense against their opponents through two rounds, converting at a rate of 2.99 GF/60.
That five-on-five offense helped make up for a power play that only converted once in Round 2. After a few years of being unstoppable on the advantage, the Oilers’ power play was a lot more human this year. It was a difference-maker in Round 1, but wasn’t nearly as effective against Vegas.
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The story is the opposite for the Stars — a red-hot power play has helped make up for their less-than-stellar five-on-five scoring, despite an uptick in expected goal creation against the Jets.
The gap closes between these two teams defensively.
Regular-season numbers work against the Stars, who struggled post-4 Nations with Miro Heiskanen sidelined. Dallas was far from perfect in its own zone against the Avalanche, but tightened up in Round 2. Jake Oettinger stood tall behind that defense, especially in short-handed situations.
The Oilers had the slight edge in expected goal suppression in the regular season. But there was even less separation between these teams at five-on-five in Round 2, both in terms of expected and actual goals against. The penalty kill is a different story; despite making improvements between rounds, Edmonton’s goalies haven’t been as stout.
Can Mikko Rantanen tilt the scales in Dallas’ favor after last year’s loss?
In the 2024 Western Conference final, Edmonton outscored Dallas 17-14. That gap, as we’ve seen on a couple different occasions this spring, is a period’s worth of work for Rantanen — so the answer here, on some level, is an obvious “yes.” Thanks, everyone. We can move on.
Forget being glib, though. Rantanen is a needle-mover, a big-game player, a capital-G Guy — any bit of shorthand used to describe someone who can swing the result of a playoff series applies to Dallas’ newest foundational piece. He was the difference in Round 1 against Colorado, leading Dallas in goals (five) and assists (seven), and putting up a hat trick in Game 7. In Round 2 against the Jets, he again led them in points (seven) and had a larger impact at five-on-five; the Stars won his minutes 6-1, up from 5-3 against the Avalanche.
If Dallas could build a time machine and port Rantanen over to last year’s matchup, they’d have made the Stanley Cup Final. In that series, Dallas got outclassed in terms of top-end talent. McDavid and Draisaitl, as they are in most instances, were in a galaxy unto themselves. The Stars’ top line of Roope Hintz, Jason Robertson and Tyler Seguin drove play (74 percent expected goal share, 42-30 edge in attempts), but Dallas only won their minutes 3-1. With an elite finisher such as Rantanen on Hintz’s right wing, it’s easy to imagine a handful more of those chances turning into goals.
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What really hurt the Stars, though, was that they got beat in depth scoring. Seven Stars scored goals, compared to 11 for the Oilers. Matt Duchene and Joe Pavelski — crucial top-six pieces — were both kept off the scoresheet entirely. The Hintz line drove play but couldn’t score enough, Dallas’ other two primary lines (Wyatt Johnston between Logan Stankoven and Jamie Benn, Duchene between Mason Marchment and Pavelski) were chasing the puck too frequently, and the Duchene line was a mess. An unquestioned first-liner such as Rantanen helps everyone else slot in a bit more comfortably.
A big part of the reason Edmonton eliminated Dallas in six was also, of course, the power play; Dallas put up a goose egg in 28 minutes at five-on-four, didn’t do a good job of creating chances (2.25 expected goals) and gave up a short-handed goal. Their counterparts scored four times in 14:36. It’s tough to win with that sort of disparity.
This spring, Dallas has the No. 3 power play in terms of efficiency (30.8 percent success rate) and goals/60 (11.4), both up dramatically from 2024. Rantanen, naturally, is a big part of that, tying with Thomas Harley for the team lead in power-play points.
None of this is meant to say that Rantanen makes Dallas a lock. Far from it — with Carolina and then initially with the Stars, we saw him struggle to combine play-driving and finishing. It was, at times, one or the other. If he maintains his level from the first two rounds, though, odds are good that this year’s version of Stars-Oilers follows a different path.
Can Edmonton’s depth keep shining?
Star power leads the way in hockey, especially in the playoffs. But any team with hopes of going on a deep run needs some scoring depth.
This year’s regular-season team didn’t have it. It was McDavid, Draisaitl and a cast of Other Guys. McDavid and Draisaitl both crossed the 100-point threshold. No other forward even reached 50. It was a throwback to past iterations of the Oilers who had fallen short.
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That said, there’s a lot more support to go around this postseason.
Nugent-Hopkins and Hyman are back to being reliable contributors. Connor Brown’s speedy play has chipped in another seven points. Corey Perry has scored five goals so far, while Adam Henrique added another three. Even Kasperi Kapanen, who was inserted into the lineup for Game 5, has made an impact with the series-clinching goal in Game 6.
The players are picking up the pace around their core, and coach Kris Knoblauch has pushed the right buttons with lineup adjustments to deepen this team’s approach. Going into the playoffs, the Oilers were projected to have only four above-average forwards based on their Net Rating. Instead, they have 11 through two rounds. If the depth can keep clicking, it should help move the needle against an opponent as deep as the Stars.
On paper, we know the key arguments for both sides. The Oilers have the best players in the series; the Stars have more good players beyond them.
That’s at least how it’s supposed to go, and while it may still go that way, the script has been flipped so far. The best player in these playoffs is arguably playing for the Stars. The deepest team in these playoffs is arguably the Oilers. For both sides, it feels like a new wrinkle, one that reveals a path to prevail.
It also means the usual strengths have room for improvement.
For McDavid and Draisaitl, we’re speaking in relative terms. With a Net Rating north of plus-4.0 in these playoffs, both players have been just as valuable as Rantanen on the other side. In fact, they’ve been exactly as good as you’d expect, playing right in line with their projected pace. They’re not quite as offensively prolific, but are doing more than enough defensively to make up for it, Draisaitl especially. His plus-1.4 Defensive Rating leads all forwards.
McDavid and Draisaitl have been exceptional. As usual. As expected. But in the playoffs, they have a reputation for being otherworldly, elevating their games to heights that felt impossible. Per 82 games, McDavid’s Net Rating jumped 10.6 goals in the playoffs over the last three years. Draisaitl’s jumped 7.6 goals. We haven’t seen that same elevation in these playoffs. Not yet, anyway.
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It’s an unfairly high bar, but for the two best players in the world, it might be one they have to rise to, again, in order to beat Dallas. On the other hand … knowing what they’re capable of, knowing they haven’t hit that point, and knowing what’s at stake is a terrifying trifecta. Expect greatness in this series.
That means Dallas’ strengths have to be equal to the task, and there’s a lot more to worry about on their side of the ledger. Aside from Rantanen, the Stars’ plethora of talented forwards have not been good enough.
Hintz, riding shotgun next to Rantanen, has been solid enough. That he’s second among forwards with 10 points — nine back of Rantanen — is troubling. During the regular season, the Stars had nine forwards scoring at a 50-point pace or higher. During the playoffs, they have just three. And Johnston, with eight points in 13 games, only barely qualifies. Mikael Granlund at seven is close, too.
It’s a low bar given the talent the Stars have, one that their talented forward group has struggled to clear. Duchene, who scored 30 goals and 82 points this year, has zero goals and five assists. Seguin has five points in 13 games, Marchment has four and Benn has only three. Robertson has a lone secondary assist in his six games since returning.
We can cut Seguin and Robertson some slack, given they’re coming off serious injuries and probably aren’t 100 percent. But this team is supposed to be deep enough to withstand that. So far so good, but it can’t just be the Rantanen show against Edmonton.
Part of the struggle is Dallas’ blue line, which was a bit of a horror show before Heiskanen’s return. Harley has been a revelation and a key factor to Dallas surviving Heiskanen’s injury, but the rest of the group didn’t hold up well. Now that the team’s top steed is back — and back to his usual level after his Game 6 heroics — it’s possible that changes. It’s tough to create offense without a back end that’s able to support it. With Heiskanen back, things fall into place. Having him and Harley running things is a big deal. Having two top-10 defensemen is a major competitive advantage.
They’ll need more out of Esa Lindell in a shutdown role, though. Yes, he’s playing tough minutes. Yes, he’s doing it with Cody Ceci as his partner. And yes, the Stars have limited goals-against despite that. But they’re also playing with some serious fire considering the chances the shutdown pair has allowed. Against McDavid and Draisaitl, the Stars need Lindell to be a lot closer to his regular-season self.
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This is also where the Oilers have a decent edge, especially with the impending return of Mattias Ekholm. While the Oilers may not appear deep up front on paper (though they’re certainly playing that way), they are deep on the back end.
Evan Bouchard was arguably their best player against Vegas and continues to be a playoff dawg. But more important is how the rest of the group has played in Ekholm’s absence. Jake Walman and John Klingberg have formed an unbelievably strong pair, with the latter looking like his vintage self. That duo has earned 66 percent of actual and expected goals during the postseason and even took on the toughest matchup in Game 5 against Jack Eichel. That’s a major development, one that has allowed the Oilers to heavily control the pace of play. Brett Kulak has been a defensive rock, too. If Darnell Nurse can get back to his regular-season form, look out.
The great equalizer for the Stars is Oettinger, who has obvious series-stealing potential. With 10.4 goals saved above expected and a .919 save percentage, he’s been one of the best goalies during the playoffs. His game comes alive in the postseason, and there’s no doubt he’s ready to avenge last year’s duel against Stuart Skinner. All due credit to Skinner for how his game turned around against Vegas in relief, and he’s a great goalie when he’s on. But Oettinger is the obviously safer bet between the pipes.
Given how the Oilers have looked since Game 3 of the first round, he’ll need to be at his very best.
Mattias Ekholm vs. Miro Heiskanen
The Oilers and Stars went into the postseason with a similar problem: finding a way to survive without one of their top defensemen.
Ekholm, like Heiskanen, isn’t the flashiest defenseman but makes an impact on both ends of the ice. Filling that void hasn’t been easy — Nurse has been leaned on more in his absence, along with deadline-add Walman. The Oilers will be without the injured Ekholm for at least another two games, though.
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That’s what gives the Stars an edge in this matchup. Heiskanen, their No. 1, is already back in action and up to speed. Not only does Dallas benefit from his high-caliber play — and in Game 6 against Winnipeg, he dominated with a 46-13 edge in shot attempts in his five-on-five minutes and a 92 percent expected goal rate — his return means the coaches don’t have to deploy lesser defenders, such as Ceci and Ilya Lyubushkin, in meaningful minutes as often.
The path to victory seems clear for both teams. Dallas needs Oettinger to limit the damage done by McDavid and Draisaitl and for Rantanen to keep the train rolling. Edmonton needs its all-world duo to step up and for its depth players to fill in the gaps. Drop the puck.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Photo of Mikko Rantanen: Perry Nelson / Imagn Images)
