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The Bruins have a lot of work to do between now and the July 1 opening bell of free agency, namely hiring a coach and drafting a player at No. 7 that they hope will be a foundational stone for the next era.
But with some new projections for free agent salaries recently released, we thought we’d take a quick look ahead at some players that coould be on the B’s shopping list.
Seeing how much the NHL salary cap is rising – up from $88 million to $95.5 million in 2025-26, with it rising to $113 million in 2027-28 – and then how much spending money the Bruins would have after the off-loading of contracts with term for Charlie Coyle and Brandon Carlo, it’s hard not to get intrigued.
But tap those brakes just a bit. Rebuilding or retooling (choose your own verb) a team through free agency is a hardly a can’t-miss proposition. You only have to go back to last summer to see that the B’s return on $84.25 million in contracts for just two players, Elias Lindholm and Nikita Zadorov, was their first DNQ in nine years. And last summer was a retool. This summer is a lot closer to a rebuild.
According to puckpedia.com, the B’s have just under $29 million in cap space, but that’s with just five forwards and four defensemen on the current roster. With that in mind, the final projections from AFP Analytics that were recently released suggest that cap space will get chewed up pretty quickly.
First off, let’s look at the pressing in-house business. They have to sign restricted free agent Morgan Geekie, and it’s going to cost them. After his breakout 33-goal season, the AFP Analytics projection for him is a four-year deal for just under $6.6 million. The B’s could take Geekie, whose previous high was 17 goals two years ago, to arbitration if they don’t want to go that long on term. But don’t expect the number to be much less than that. With one more year of control over the player, GM Don Sweeney has said definitively that Geekie will be on the team next season, one way or another.
At forward, he B’s also have to make decisions on whether to bring back UFA Cole Koepke and to give qualifying offers to RFAs John Beeecher, Jakub Lauko and Marat Khusnutdinov. Those deals would be for shorter money, but it adds up.
The other must-sign is defenseman Mason Lohrei, also an RFA. The young D-man had what can only be hoped to be a productive development season, experiencing highs and lows. Playing up in the lineup because of Hampus Lindholm’s knee injury, the offensive-minded D-man led all Bruin blue-liners in points with 5-28-33 but also absorbed a minus-43. There are two projections for him: a two-year bridge deal for just over $3 million a season or a six-year deal for just under $5.5 million that would eat into his UFA years. Considering it’s still hard to know exactly what the B’s have in Lohrei, a short-term deal seems more palatable.
Still, it could cost almost $10 million just to lock up Geekie and Lohrei.
Once the B’s dip into the unrestricted free agency market come July 1, the prices for impact players become really inflated. While there is a need for centermen, the true impact ones are usually draft-and-develop players. So it’s no surprise that Sweeney mentioned at the season-ending presser that he’ll be in search of wings.
*At the top of the market for forwards, if he chooses to leave Toronto, is Mitch Marner. The projection for the 28-year-old right wing in the prime of his career is a whopper, a seven-year deal worth just under $13 million per, which would eclipse David Pastrnak’s $11.25 million salary at the top of the team salary structure. We have our doubts that the B’s would be the most attractive landing spot for Marner (who exactly would he play with?), but he’s as close to a slam-dunk signing as there is out there. Over the last seven years, he’s averaged 1.22 points per game, with this season being his personal best (27-75-102). He may not be a perfect player – Toronto coach Craig Berube is lamenting his hesitance to shoot (sound familiar?) – but he’s an all-situations wing that you can pencil in for 80-100 points every year. If they had one hole to fill, Marner would be the guy to target. Unfortunately, there are multiple holes.
*At the next tier down there are a couple of legitimate top-six wings, but they will still be pricey. Brock Boeser, who had 40 goals two years ago for the Canucks, is projected to garner a six-year deal worth $8.5 million a season. That seems pretty high for a player who has only cracked 30 goals just once, but he is in the prime of his career at 28 and, well, this is the cost of doing business near the top of the market. There is also the Jets’ Nikolaj Ehlers, who at 29 has four 60-plus point seasons under his belt, including this year (24-39-63). His projection? Six years at $8.1 million. Yowza.
*There are some interesting players that are projected to go at a more bargain rate, and one is known to B’s fans. Ryan Donato, on his fourth team since being dealt to Minnesota for Coyle, picked a great time to have a career year, posting 31-31-62 totals, doubling his previous career high of 31 points. The 29-year-old Donato is projected to get a three-year deal with an AAV of $4.2 million. The Hurricanes’ Jack Roslovic (projection: three years at $4.1 million) wasn’t as prolific as Donato, but he did put up 22 goals for the second time in his career.
*And what about Brad Marchand? Many fans still harbor hopes that the captain will return, but the vibe in the dressing room, from management and even Marchand himself when he spoke in Boston shortly after the trade, was that though no doors were closed, it was time to move on now the Band-Aid was ripped off. But, interestingly, AFP Analytics’ projection for a Marchand deal is down from where they had him at mid-season, which was three years at just over $7 million a season. Now, despite the jump he’s shown in the Panthers’ playoff run (albeit as a third-liner), the projection is two years at $5.1 million. With the Panthers deadlocked 2-2 in a great series with Toronto, the 37-year-old Marchand still has time to prove he’s got a lot more in the tank – and more earning power.
*While the B’s have gotten kudos for the return on the Carlo trade, they still have to replace him on the back end. UFA Henri Jokiharju, still just 26, filled in competently after being acquired at the deadline and found some chemistry with Zadorov. He’s projected to get a three-year deal at $3.6 million. Nate Schmidt, 33, has found a career boost in Florida and he might be able to be had for two years at $3 million. Other right defense possibilities are 40-year-old Brent Burns (projection: one year, $5.3 million), 31-one-year Cody Ceci (3 x $3.5 million) and 26-year-old Nick Perbix (2 x $2.7 million). At the top of the market is Florida’s Aaron Ekblad (projection: 7 x $7.8 million) but it’s hard to picture the B’s forking over for a deal like that for the 29-year-old Ekblad with $20 milllion already tied up in Charlie McAvoy, Hampus Lindholm and Zadorov.
Lastly, for the B’s fans who are pining for the team to sign an RFA to an offer sheet, the compensation packages for such endeavors were released on Tuesday. Everyone is hot and heavy for Toronto wing Matthew Knies. The starting point for Knies would probably start in the $7,020113-$9,360153 offer tier, which would cost a first, a second, and a third-round pick. The next tier up to $11,700,192 would cost a two firsts, a second and a third. Anything higher than that would cost four first-rounders. Like most teams, the B’s have been reluctant to go the offer sheet route, but the B’s do have some draft capital. They have an extra first rounder in 2026 from Toronto in the Carlo deal (top-five protected) and possibly another extra one in 2027, if the Panthers advance to the next round. They have to use their own picks for an offer sheet.
No matter whom they lure this summer, the 2025-26 Bruins should look vastly different from the one that finished 2024-25.
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