Entering the playoffs having won or lost a few games in a row doesn’t bear much weight on Stanley Cup odds. But how you’ve played in a bigger sample — preferably, your final 25 games of the regular season — could tell us who may have a shot at making a deep run. Let’s assess the eight Western Conference playoff teams and see who’s hot and who’s not.
Are the Golden Knights not getting the attention they deserve? It sure feels that way, but they were one of the top teams in the NHL over their last 25 games. They had a 16-5-4 record and some of the best five-on-five numbers among all NHL teams, not just the Western Conference.
The Golden Knights had an expected goals share (xG%) of 52.75 percent over their last 25 games, ranked sixth in the NHL. Their power play was firing on all cylinders, as it clicked at 30.7 percent over that stretch, though they only killed off 72.5 percent of the man advantages they faced.
Still, the penalty kill is the only concern for the Golden Knights heading into the playoffs. They’re dominating at five-on-five, scoring goals, getting saves, and have one of the NHL’s hottest power plays. They look like a legitimate Stanley Cup contender.
The Jets were one of the best teams in the NHL, and it’s not just because of Connor Hellebuyck. Of course, it helps to have a goalie with a 47-12-3 record and a .925 save percentage, but they improved quite a bit at five-on-five as a team since the start of the season.
The Jets had a 16-8-1 record and 55.46 xG% over their last 25 games, the latter being the third-best rate in the NHL over that stretch. Only Utah HC and the Carolina Hurricanes had a better xG% over their final 25 games. The one concern for the Jets is that their special teams have dipped a bit. Their power play converted at only 19 percent over the last 25 games, and they killed off just 78.8 percent of opposing man advantages.
Nikolaj Ehlers and Gabriel Vilardi’s injuries are also slight concerns; Ehlers is out week-to-week, while Vilardi seems to be getting closer to a return. Otherwise, this Jets team looks like one that can make a run in the West. It won’t be easy, as some of the best teams in the regular season down the stretch have been in the West. But behind Hellebuyck and some high-end talent in Mark Scheifele, Kyle Connor and Josh Morrissey, the Jets have what it takes to break a streak of disappointing playoff showings.
Because of this playoff format, the Avalanche will take on the Dallas Stars in Round 1. The Stars have some red flags (more on that in a bit), but there’s still potential for this to be a grueling series that takes plenty out of each team.
Even so, I like the Avalanche’s odds of making a run in the West. They had an excellent trade deadline, acquiring Brock Nelson, Charlie Coyle, Jimmy Vesey and Ryan Lindgren. They revamped their goaltending earlier in the season by trading for Mackenzie Blackwood and Scott Wedgewood, and it’s all paid off.
The Avalanche had a strong final third of the season, going 16-7-2 across their final 25 games. They were among the best five-on-five teams, totaling an xG% of 54.4 percent, ranked fourth in the NHL. Their power play converted on 33.8 percent of its chances, and their penalty kill was at 80.1 percent.
It also doesn’t hurt to have a Hart Trophy contender in Nathan MacKinnon and a Norris Trophy favorite in Cale Makar. The Avalanche have the goods to make a run in the West, even if the Stars series is a gauntlet.
I don’t love this Oilers team as much as last season’s, but you can never rule them out when you have players like Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl. They’re arguably the two best players in the world, and their playoff resumés are nothing short of spectacular.
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However, this Oilers team is not as dominant as they were a season ago. They’ve played well at five-on-five, totaling a 54.44 xG% over their last 25 games, but that number was closer to 58-60 percent last season. Their power play hasn’t been as lethal, and the penalty kill has been a question mark all season.
The concern with this year’s Oilers is that they don’t have the depth they did a season ago. The Jeff Skinner and Viktor Arvidsson signings haven’t worked out, and they’ve felt the losses of Dylan Holloway and Philip Broberg to offer sheets. Stuart Skinner has barely been league-average, and Mattias Ekholm is out for at least the first round. There’s plenty working against the Oilers, but you can’t rule out Draisaitl and McDavid going nuclear and leading a run.
One team that could play spoiler for the Oilers is the Kings, who routed the Oilers 5-0 on April 14 to clinch home-ice advantage in their first-round series against the Oilers. This is the fourth consecutive time the Kings will face the Oilers in Round 1, but this may be their best shot to defeat them.
The Kings play structured, defensive hockey and have only allowed 2.19 expected goals per 60 over their last 25 games. Their offense was better than you think, too, as they generated 2.53 expected goals per 60. They’re an excellent five-on-five team and had comparable five-on-five numbers to the Oilers over their last 25 games.
It also doesn’t hurt that Darcy Kuemper has quietly emerged as a Vezina contender. He had a .920 save percentage during the season and saved 21.3 goals above expected. He won’t win the Vezina over Hellebuyck, but that’s a significant advantage the Kings have over Skinner and the Oilers.
Even though the Wild recently got Joel Eriksson Ek and Kirill Kaprizov back from injuries, I don’t see their playoff stay lasting too long. The Wild were the definition of average over their last 25 games, going 11-11-3 while totaling an xG% of just 49.54 percent at five-on-five.
The Wild’s struggles date back even further, too. Since Christmas, they have a 47.54 xG%, so they’ve played less-than-stellar hockey for quite some time. Filip Gustavsson had a great regular season and could steal a game or two for the Wild, but this team doesn’t look bound for some crazy Stanley Cup run.
The Blues went on an impressive 12-game winning streak to get into the playoffs. There’s no question they’ve played better since Jim Montgomery took over as head coach, but I’d still be surprised if they advanced past the first round.
Montgomery has improved the team at five-on-five, as they had a 51.11 xG% over their last 25 games. But the Blues are playing a brand of low-event hockey that doesn’t typically fare well in the playoffs in the modern NHL. They could make a first-round series interesting against the Jets, and they’ve been a nice story to get to where they are, but they also seem due for a first-round exit.
We need to have a talk about the Stars. Yes, they came close to challenging the Jets for first in the Central, but they have some major red flags. The Stars are 13-8-4 over their last 25 games, but they’ve been one of the worst five-on-five teams in the NHL over that stretch and have lost seven games in a row.
The Stars had a 44.92 xG% across their last 25 games, ranked 30th. The only teams with worse xG percentages were the Boston Bruins and Chicago Blackhawks, two teams firmly in the draft lottery. That’s not company you want to be in as you enter the playoffs.
The Miro Heiskanen injury has hurt the Stars, but it’s not just that. Even with Heiskanen, the right side of their blue line borders on tragic. Heiskanen’s status for Round 1 is up in the air, which is problematic against a team like the Avalanche. You’re telling me Cody Ceci, Ilya Lyubushkin and Matt Dumba have to try and defend MacKinnon and co.?
That’s a giant concern, but those three defensemen also lack puck-moving ability. Jake Oettinger has done well to cover up the Stars’ flaws, but I’m not buying them as a Cup contender. As grueling as a matchup with the Avalanche could be, it wouldn’t surprise me if they made quick work of the Stars.
The Western Conference playoffs are shaping up to be a gauntlet. Even though not every team is a Cup contender, everyone is competitive, and that should make for an exciting first round for fans league-wide.
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