Welcome to NHL Predictions. Each day, Last Word on Hockey looks at the games happening and gives our predictions for each one, breaking down head-to-head matchups and other factors that may play in. Today, we’re looking at the Calgary Flames against the Minnesota Wild. Be sure to check out more NHL predictions every day there’s hockey this 2024-25 season.
Time: 7:00 p.m. Eastern Standard Time (EST)
TV: ESPN+ | H FDSN NO, FDSN WI | SNW
The Calgary Flames and Minnesota Wild played their first head-to-head matchup on November 23rd in Calgary. At the time, the Wild were second in the Western Conference, and the Flames were second in the Pacific Division. Calgary outplayed the Wild in this game, outshooting them 31-23, and would eventually win a hard-fought contest in the shoot-out. Since then, both teams have fallen in the standings. However, Minnesota and Calgary are heading into tonight’s game in the playoffs, and both teams are looking to pick up valuable points tonight. Let’s look at the latest storylines and make a prediction ahead of tonight’s matchup.
The Minnesota Wild have lost four of their last five contests and currently find themselves just one point up on the Dallas Stars for second in the Central Division. With Colorado only two points back, the Wild need to start stringing together some wins to avoid falling into the Wild Card spot in the West. Minnesota started the season as one of the best defensive teams in the league. Allowing very few goals a game and getting Vezina quality goaltending from Filip Gustavsson. They have fallen off this pace, and Gustavsson has looked more beatable. This drop in defensive play has cost the Minnesota Wild, as they don’t have enough firepower to score their way to victory.
Offensively, they rely heavily on Kirill Kaprizov. He has been electric this year and has played his way into the Heart Trophy conversation. Kaprizov missed most of January, returning on Thursday night for the first time since December 23rd. If he can regain his form, the Wild’s offence and youngsters Marco Rossi and Matt Boldy should improve. This uptick could put pressure on the backend for Minnesota, hoping to win home-ice advantage for the playoffs.
Calgary currently has a three-point lead over the 9th-placed Canuck in the Western Conference. With such a slim lead, every game for the Flames is a must-win. Calgary is being led by their MVP, rookie goalie Dustin Wolf. Wolf has a 17-7-2 record and the 5th-best save percentage in the league. If he can continue his stellar play, the Flames could outlast the Canucks and Blues, who are currently chasing them for the final playoff spot. Wolf and the Flames, however, have struggled on the road and are heading into a tough matchup against the Wild.
For the Flames to make the playoffs and start winning on the road, they must improve offensively to help out their rookie goaltender. Calgary is 29th in the league in goals and has struggled to score more than three goals in a single game all season. Veteran Jonathan Huberdeau has found his scoring touch and leads the Flames with 19 goals on the year. Youngster Matthew Coronato has also started contributing more offensively lately, but it’s not been enough. Calgary will need players like Yegor Sharangovich and Nazem Kadri to elevate their scoring to help the Flames make the playoffs.
Calgary is coming into tonight’s game after a solid win against the Buffalo Sabres, in which they scored five goals despite being outshot. Calgary found a way to win in a game they didn’t have their usual energy. In Minnesota, they know they will have to bring their best, and they typically find a way to elevate themselves to their competition. Expect Calgary to bring a strong effort and keep this game close, like most games this season.
Minnesota has been in a funk lately and is coming off a 4-0 loss to Utah. However, they are getting healthy, and they should be motivated coming off that shutout loss. Surprisingly, the Wild have been better on the road this season, but the motivated team should be able to keep the low-scoring Flames in check. Expect Minnesota to find a way to get some opportunistic goals, including against a poor Flames penalty kill, and win a close contest.
Prediction: Wild win 3-2
Vegas has the over/under for goals at 5.5, and the Wild are favoured by 1.5 goals which are both too close to our prediction to take a chance on. Instead, we’ll focus on player props.
On the Flames side, Matthew Coronato has been dangerous lately, and you can get him at +425 for an anytime goal on BET3645.
For the Wild, Kirill Kaprizov is back for his second game. After being held off the scoresheet, expect him to get get to himself. Look for odds on picking up multiple points and capitalizing on the power play against Calgary’s weak penalty kill.
Main Photo: Brett Holmes- Imagn-Images
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