by | Oct 15, 2024 | 16 comments
As the Seattle Kraken settle into the regular season, they have their sights set on a return to the playoffs. Last year, they were in the hunt for a wild-card spot until the final weeks of the season, but inconsistent scoring held them back. To address this, the front office made significant moves, including head coach and assistant coach changes, and two key free-agent signings—Brandon Montour and Chandler Stephenson—to help right the ship.
In a recent Sound Of Hockey roundtable discussion, I predicted that the Kraken would finish with 95 points, a number higher than others on the panel. Why 95? Over the past 10 full NHL seasons (excluding those shortened by COVID and the lockout), teams reaching 95 points have made the playoffs 80 percent of the time. On paper, this season’s roster looks like the best in the young franchise’s history. A 95-point season is not out of reach and gives fans a realistic, exciting goal to root for as the year unfolds.
During last season’s playoff push, Sound Of Hockey categorized NHL teams into three tiers, setting target win percentages for each. I’ll be following a similar approach this season by sorting all 32 NHL teams into the following tiers:
These tiers are fluid and will shift as the season progresses, with teams moving up or down based on their performance. In the NHL, only 16 teams make the playoffs—eight from each conference. With 10 teams currently classified as Playoff Bound, only six playoff spots remain available: three in the Eastern Conference (Atlantic and Metropolitan divisions) and three in the Western Conference (Central and Pacific divisions).
The NHL schedule consists of 82 games, and when aligned with the team tiers, it breaks down into the Kraken playing 27 games against Playoff Bound teams, 35 games against Bubble teams, and 20 games against Tankers. While no game in the NHL is easy, earning wins against Tankers should be less challenging than defeating Playoff Bound teams. As a result, we can expect a higher point percentage from games against Tankers, a moderate percentage from Bubble teams, and a lower percentage from Playoff Bound teams.
These percentages will adjust throughout the season based on whether the Kraken are ahead of or behind their projected pace. For now, my projected point percentages for the Kraken break down as follows:
There are 164 possible points available in a full season (two points per game across 82 games). To reach 95 points, the Kraken will need to maintain a .579 points percentage. The purpose of these tiers is to highlight the quality of the opponents and to illustrate that losses are expected throughout the season. But Seattle should win far more often than it loses against Tanker teams and will still need to win a good portion of its games against Playoff Bound teams.
The regular season has begun with the Seattle Kraken facing tough competition right out of the gate. They have 11 games scheduled in October, with six at home and five on the road, and five of those games are against Playoff Bound teams. With only two games against Tankers, the Kraken will need to earn points against high-quality opponents to stay on pace. To stay on pace for their goal of 95 points for the season, they need to target 12 points out of a possible 22 in October.
Through three games, the Kraken are 1-2-0, having earned two points. With eight games remaining and 16 points possible, they need to secure 10 more points to stay on track for 95 points.
We’ll be tracking the Kraken’s progress toward 95 points each month and analyzing how they perform against each tier. It’s still early, but there’s plenty of reason for optimism with the new additions to the roster.
One notable stretch to watch begins just past the mid-point of the season, running from Jan. 18 until the break for the 4 Nations Face-Off (see more about the event here). During this stretch, the Kraken play 11 games, nine of which are at home. Six of those games are against Pacific Division rivals, and five are against Tankers. This could be a pivotal moment when the Kraken’s playoff picture becomes much clearer.
If you have any questions, thoughts, or suggestions, feel free to leave them in the comments below, or reach out to me on the X @blaizg.
I am not as optimistic as you are Blaiz. Having said that, I do not think they can score enough to reach that many points. The Kraken are built and coached for defense but goaltending must be almost perfect for that. They will be competitive but if they get 85 points, I will be surprised
Lack of scoring was a concern in the Kraken’s second season, but they came out firing. With the season still young, there’s hope that Coach Dan can find the right line combinations to make all four lines a consistent threat.
I’m not so sure we were in the playoff hunt until the final weeks of the season, depending on how many weeks you’re talking about… 6? 😂
My dark horse pick to possibly miss the playoffs is the Edmonton oilers, fingers crossed. I feel they are even more top heavy than last season and still have shaky goaltending. An injury to a top player could seriously sink the ship, they just don’t have enough depth.
Had a dream that we went 4/5 in the upcoming home stand 🤞
All in all great breakdown, obviously surprises will happen it’s a long season. My target is 97, not far off.
97, I like it. That increases the percentage to 90%. To get to 100% in the last 10 seasons, you had to get 98 points to guarantee a spot in the playoffs.
I’d like to clarify that my 97 point prediction is a little more optimistic but I feel like if everything falls into place and we can reach it.
Interesting approach. I often think about the NHL in a similar way but using quartiles because 32 teams sort nicely in 4 groups and playoffs are just the top two quartiles.
Popular YouTuber “The Hockey Guy” does something similar with his weekly power rankings.
To me it makes more sense to do your analysis with quartiles because there is too much quality variation between teams in triads. Also, year to year progression (if there is any) tends to happen in moves of +/- 1 quartile. Very seldom do you see teams leaping from 4th to 2nd or falling from 1st to 3rd in one season.
Anyway good luck with your methodology, I’ll be interested in reading your updates!
The idea of using quartiles is interesting. While I haven’t looked at the data yet, the first big movement that came to my mind was the St. Louis Blues, who were in last place in the NHL in early January and went on to win the Stanley Cup in the 2018-19 season.
I really enjoyed this series last season, Blaiz. Even though it painted a clear picture of it fading away which was pretty painful to watch. Please make the monthly updates new posts if possible!
My own personal prediction for the team this year is 87, though I hope they do way better.
Thanks TimH. I will plan to make new posts. There should be enough to review in a month’s worth of games.
95 might be dependent on if 95 starts earning his inflated salary (Edited version for the sensitive eyes)
I appreciate Blaiz’s analysis, as always, though I am less optimistic than he (I’m predicting a 90-point season). This made be chuckle, however: “In the NHL, only 16 teams make the playoffs.” Since when is 50% of the league “only”? 😂
Good point! It still feels like a tough bar to clear, so the “only” felt right. But 95 points feels within reach, and we’ll see how it plays out. 90 points was the playoff cutoff for 2 out of the 10 seasons, so playoffs still possible there.
Interesting way to look at the season. I think to reach the playoffs depends on the following five factors:
1. Dunn, Montour, and Evans don’t get injured so they can drive the offense
2. Team GAA is .905 or better
3. Matty Beniers scores nearly 30 goals and 60+ points
4. One of the wingers not named McCann comes close to or surpasses 30 goals
5. Shane Wright gets serious Calder consideration.
1. Agreed
2. A team GAA of .905 or better would be historic (though I didn’t fact-check this). I assume you mean save percentage, which is more realistic. Surprisingly, the Kraken were top 10 in both GAA and SV% last season—and the only team in the top 10 to miss the playoffs.
3. A rebound season from Matty would be huge. A bounce-back year from Burky would help as well.
4. I’m with you on this—my pick is Bjorkstrand. He’s already a five-time 20-goal scorer, and I think he can push for more this year.
5. Shane isn’t eligible for the Calder anymore :(, but a strong season from him would still be a big win for the team.
Oops on SV% but yes that is essential. I forgot it was 6 or more games in each of the preceding two seasons for the Calder but anyway, I was trying to make the point that Shane Wright has to be considered one of the top new players for the team to be successful. Beniers is even more important and I hope he starts contributing offensively pretty quickly before the season goes off the rails. We already know the limits of Stephenson and Gourde offensively, so it is really up to Beniers and Wright to bring the offense up the middle or it may be another top 10 draft pick next summer. I wonder if they would pick another center.
So far their strategy seems to be to take the best player available. So could be a center and figure out how to trade for what you need.
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