NHL
It’s much easier to identify centres who fit the Toronto Maple Leafs’ needs than it is defencemen.
What the Leafs figure to be looking for ahead of the March 7 trade deadline: a right-shooting defenceman, almost certainly to play on a second pair with Morgan Rielly.
The challenges are twofold.
For one thing, available defenders who fit that bill are hard to find. (One such option, Cody Ceci, was dealt to Dallas last week.) For another, the Leafs aren’t overflowing with trade assets and want to preserve the best ones for that centre.
The goal here is to identify defenders who make sense for the Leafs and who may also be available. The Athletic’s NHL insider (and my good pal) Chris Johnston weighed in with his thoughts on each candidate.
He’s a large (6-foot-4, 212 pounds) right-shooting defenceman who has posted strong defensive results playing for a Blackhawks team that will no doubt be selling ahead of the deadline. Check, check and check. The thorny elements here: Murphy has missed a bunch of time over the years with injuries, including a recurring groin injury he only just returned from. That’s scary for a team that already has some health risks on the back end.
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Murphy also turns 32 next month and has another year left on his contract, which comes with a cap hit of $4.4 million. That price could be hard to accommodate with raises coming for Matthew Knies, Joseph Woll, Jake McCabe and Mitch Marner (potentially) as well as a new deal (potentially) for John Tavares. Chicago is clearly open to the retention business (including the last year of McCabe’s current deal this season) so maybe the Leafs can get that number chopped in half … for a price.
CJ says: One asterisk I’d add to the retention conversation is that the Blackhawks only have one free spot remaining to use this season and they may elect to earmark that for getting an even more problematic contract off the books. Seth Jones, perhaps? In any event, a third-party broker can likely be arranged if needed. League sources say there is interest in Murphy from other contending teams, although his medical file remains a concern, or at least a question mark, for more than one of those clubs. That means Toronto would likely have competition in the marketplace if it ends up bidding for this player. But given how few available options there are at the moment, that may simply be the cost of doing business at this deadline.
The real fear with Savard is that it’s too late — that he’s past his point of expiration as someone who can play top-four minutes on a good team trying to win a championship. The 34-year-old is now a third-pairing defenceman with concerning underlying results for a so-so Montreal team. The Leafs might reasonably wonder if, with better talent around him and a more targeted role that sees him play with Rielly and take up PK2 duties, Savard can give them what they need in the playoffs.
A younger version of Savard already went on a deep run in Tampa that ended with a Stanley Cup (though even back then, in 2020, he played reduced minutes). Savard would add another layer of grit to the Leafs’ net-front as well as one more shot-blocking monster on top of Chris Tanev and McCabe. The likely price of a second-round pick — and perhaps one additional pick for salary retention — might rightly scare the Leafs off given the age-related risks.
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CJ says: I’d be surprised if Savard remained with the Canadiens beyond March 7, so there may be an opportunity to scoop him up last-second at a reduced cost if no other teams meet the asking price beforehand. Montreal is realistic about where it is in the competitive cycle and already acquired Savard’s replacement by adding Alexandre Carrier in a trade with Nashville before Christmas. As for how much Savard has left to give, Jonas has raised fair points here. There’s some risk involved at this stage of his career. However, since he’s playing on an expiring contract it’s arguably less risky than any of the players the Leafs may look at who have term remaining on their deals.
Oleksiak is a franchise staple in Seattle — he’s been with the Kraken since Day 1. And he has another year left on the five-year contract they signed him to soon after he was acquired via the expansion draft. Kraken GM Ron Francis may feel no urge to make a move here. Then again, Oleksiak is 32 now and has seen his minutes go up and down for Seattle these days. The Kraken’s playoff chances don’t look great at the moment, which could make them more willing to look to the future. The rub with Oleksiak? He’s another one of those lefties who can play the right. The Leafs already have a bunch of those guys, too many really. Would he even fit with Rielly?
The more optimistic side here: Oleksiak is a Toronto boy who, at 6-foot-7 and almost 260 pounds (!), would bring just the kind of oak-tree qualities to the Leafs that this team’s GM and coach adore. Oleksiak also has the experience of a long playoff run under his belt: He went all the way to the Final with Dallas back in 2020. Is there a deal that nets the Leafs both Oleksiak and third-line centre candidate Yanni Gourde?
CJ says: The Kraken are going nowhere fast and management is believed to be under increasing pressure from ownership to show signs of progress, which makes a trade involving Oleksiak appear more likely. The organization committed big term and dollars to free agent Brandon Montour last summer and only has so many options at its disposal to start turning over the bottom half of the roster. Oleksiak represents a valuable trade chip in the NHL’s current trade environment. While the Kraken may ultimately end up holding onto the option of dealing him as a pure rental next season, they’ll have to at least listen to any expressions of interest they get before March 7.
Carlo falls into the same department as Charlie Coyle, who cracked our recent top-10 centre targets list for the Leafs. Like Coyle, Carlo has long been a foundational supporting piece in Boston and is under contract beyond this season — two more seasons, in fact, with a $4.1 million cap hit. The Bruins may not feel inclined to deal him, especially to a divisional rival like the Leafs. Carlo will be 29 in November though and Boston, with a team that’s admittedly considering a reboot, might ultimately decide to try to recoup some assets for the future.
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Do the Leafs have enough of those assets to lure their divisional opponent into a trade, especially with that aforementioned need at centre? Perhaps not. Carlo would be a really nice fit nonetheless. He’s got that length component (6-foot-5 and over 200 pounds) this team now prizes along with the requisite defensive ability to play top-four minutes (plus PK) alongside any one of Rielly, McCabe or Oliver Ekman-Larsson. A phone call to Boston GM Don Sweeney to see where exactly the Bruins are at is worth making.
CJ says: By their own admission, the Bruins are staring down the possibility of a quick retool at this deadline. Carlo represents a prime piece to move if they elect to go down that path. Still, a significant trade involving the Leafs feels unlikely given Boston’s desire to remain competitive in the Atlantic Division next season and beyond. That said … you miss every shot you don’t take! There’s no harm in putting out some feelers even if this kind of deal looks like a long shot given the long history of the teams that would be involved.
The most attractive aspects of a Schenn reacquisition for the Leafs:
1. They know he’s a perfect fit for what they need. No one, arguably, has fit more comfortably next to Rielly over the years than Schenn during the 2023 playoffs. Unlike the rest of the names here, the front office doesn’t have to hope for a fit. They know they’ve got one.
Add Schenn and the rest of the defence slots in as it should.
McCabe — Tanev
Rielly — Schenn
Ekman-Larsson — Timmins/Benoit
McCabe and Tanev can team up as a top-line deterrent while Oliver Ekman-Larsson gets more proper slotting, at age 33, on a third pair with one of Conor Timmins or Simon Benoit.
2. Schenn is totally at ease playing under the spotlight in Toronto and was a valued dressing-room figure during that brief return two years ago.
3. Also appealing is the likely acquisition price. Schenn came at the cost of a third-round pick two years ago. Something in that range still feels about right given that Schenn is 35 now and under contract for one more season at $2.75 million on the cap. (Some retention feels like a requisite part of any trade.)
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Schenn wouldn’t be without some risk, obviously, given his age and foot-speed limitations. But with an improved bunch on defence from his last go-around, the Leafs wouldn’t necessarily be asking as much from Schenn — just that he eats some physical minutes with Rielly and kills penalties.
Can the Preds be induced to move him? Is there a Schenn plus Ryan O’Reilly mega-deal that works for both teams?
CJ says: This feels a little like playing the greatest hits even though Schenn’s second go-round in Toronto was unquestionably a success, particularly during the 2023 playoffs. That qualifier aside, Nashville’s disastrous season has left it in a position where it must seriously consider any outside trade interest in non-core veteran players. Schenn won’t be viewed as an untouchable if and when someone comes calling. It’s worth noting here that like O’Reilly, he had the opportunity to stay in Toronto before testing free agency two summers ago and landing with the Predators instead. Does that history give the Leafs any pause? Given the term remaining on Schenn’s contract, he is not a player Nashville needs to part with at this deadline. Someone is going to have to compel them to make that kind of move with a strong offer.
— Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, PuckPedia and Hockey-Reference
(Top photo of Jamie Oleksiak: Steph Chambers / Getty Images)
