NHL
By Dom Luszczyszyn, Sean Gentille and Shayna Goldman
Ladies and gentlemen, for the first time in over two decades: the Battle of Ontario.
The relatively dormant rivalry has always had a spark, despite the Toronto Maple Leafs and Ottawa Senators’ competitive trajectories over the past 20 years. Geographical proximity will have that effect. Now that they’re on the same competitive wavelength, that spark is about to ignite. This series has potential to be a hate-filled, five-alarm fire.
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On one side, a perennial playoff disappointment aiming to prove they have what it takes to go the distance. On the other side, a playoff newcomer aiming to prove they belong after annual regular season disappointments.
Let the flames begin.
Usually, Toronto’s first-round matchup is a coin-flip series — and one that usually lands heads when the Leafs call tails. But not this time.
This time, the Leafs finally won their division, earning the right to face a wild-card team where their chances to win are much higher. Their reward: a Senators team considerably weaker than the Tampa Bay Lightning or Florida Panthers. The Leafs are heavy favorites as a result, winning the series in nearly three-quarters of projections.
Of course, this is the Leafs we’re talking about. They’ve been a heavy favorite before and that series didn’t end well for them when they blew a 3-1 lead to the Canadiens back in 2021. For the Leafs, the odds don’t matter because they’ll be battling themselves as much as they’ll be battling the Senators.
If this year is actually going to be different, this is the first test for Toronto: defeat a beatable opponent.
Each team hovered around break-even in expected goals this season at five-on-five, but Toronto has better actual results to match. The Leafs have much more firepower and turn their chances into goals at a higher rate. That was a weakness in Ottawa for much of the season. The team only mustered 2.09 goals/60 across the season, which ranks fifth to last in the league. But the Senators’ scoring since the 4 Nations is a promising uptick heading into Round 1. Defensively, the Maple Leafs allow a bit more back in terms of shot volume and quality, but their goaltending has stood tall.
The special teams battle slants toward Toronto, too. Power-play scoring burned the Maple Leafs last postseason, but their five-forward unit is coming into the playoffs hot. Since the 4 Nations, they have been one of the most dangerous teams on the advantage, while the Senators’ PK has had to rely on goaltending to mask some defensive deficiencies.
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If regular-season trends hold, the Senators could get more power-play opportunities. Ottawa has led the league in drawn penalties in each of the last three seasons but needs to work on its finishing if it is going to gain momentum from those chances.
On paper, it’s clear that the Maple Leafs have the edge. Ottawa has the worst Offensive Rating of the playoff field, and its Defensive Rating is half of Toronto’s. But that hasn’t mattered much in their regular season meetings — the Senators swept the season series this year and could carry that disruptive momentum into Round 1.
Will Toronto’s defensive upgrades flip the script?
When Craig Berube replaced Sheldon Keefe last offseason, one widespread bit of logic was that the former St. Louis Blues coach would help the Leafs dial in defensively. Your mileage may vary on that; just how much of an issue team defense had been for Toronto is a fair debate, and Berube’s last few seasons in St. Louis featured a whole lot of leaky play. In his final two full seasons with the Blues, they were 24th and 26th in expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five. Not good.
An important bit of context, of course, is that the Blues’ defensive group had become deficient, and expecting any coach to spin it into gold was unrealistic. When Berube led them to the Stanley Cup in 2018-19, they were an elite defensive team (No. 3 in expected goals against), and they kept that up for another season before age and roster attrition began to take hold.
Part of the credit for the Leafs’ defensive glow-up — they’re third in actual goals against per 60 at five-on-five — goes to him. There are kudos to spread around, though.
We’ll start with Anthony Stolarz, who’s given them truly high-end goaltending for the first time in a generation. Or two. Or three. His .926 save percentage is the best on record for any Leaf goaltender with more than 20 starts since Johnny Bower in 1965-66, and his 31 goals saved above expected is the best since at least 2007-08. Joseph Woll (.909 save percentage, 17.5 GSAx) isn’t far behind. Their play is the primary reason 2.53 expected goals against per 60 at five-on-five (16th) becomes 2.0 actual goals against per 60 at five-on-five (great).
Adding Chris Tanev, as expected, has been gigantic. He came to Toronto with a well-earned reputation as the truly elite defensive defenseman they were lacking, and he’s delivered; only three D-men in the league (Mikey Anderson, Vladislav Gavrikov and Philip Broberg) have higher Defensive Ratings than Tanev (plus-9.7). Despite playing against better offensive competition than any other Leaf and starting more of his shifts in the zone than any other defenseman in the league, Toronto is winning his minutes 55-34. Some of that has to do with the goaltending and finishing — in expected goals, Toronto has an edge of about 48-45 — but Tanev is the real deal, no matter what.
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Brandon Carlo, acquired from Boston at the trade deadline, has also brought something important to the table: real defensive depth and a reliable partner for Morgan Rielly. When the two play together, Rielly’s on-ice expected goals percentage jumps from 42 to 57 percent. That’s not a small sample size, either; they’ve got 214:31 of ice time as a pair. Toronto has won those minutes 12-8 and controlled nearly 60 percent of all high-danger chances.
That all sounds great on paper. The Leafs, of course, have shown several times in recent history how quickly things can change. Undeniably, though, they’re coming into the playoffs in a better spot — in terms of goaltending and their top two pairs — than we’ve typically seen.
Is Playoff Brady ready to take his game to the next level?
On paper, it’s been a down year for Brady Tkachuk. He posted his lowest points per 60 (2.49) since 2020-21, owing mainly to a dip in effectiveness as a set-up man; his 0.69 primary assists per 60 are down nearly 0.5 from last season.
Of course, we know things are going about as well as they ever have for Ottawa’s captain. That’s not just because of the postseason berth, either — Tkachuk showed at the 4 Nations that he’s capable of raising his game in truly high-leverage moments. Many had assumed that’d be the case; Tkachuk gave them some degree of proof, posting the fourth-best Net Rating among American forwards, scoring three times and generally acting like a Grade-A, “hard to play against” force.
That runs in the family. And just like Matthew Tkachuk used the 2023 postseason to push himself into a different stratosphere, his younger brother is faced with a similar task. He’s got the player profile necessary to make it happen. We know he’s a rare combination of size and skill, and we’ve seen him produce at an even higher level than what he managed in the regular season. Now it’s time to put it all together.
Toronto’s biggest advantage is the same as usual: The team’s best forwards are extremely good.
Auston Matthews, in a down year, still finished with the league’s seventh-best Net Rating per 82, a plus-21.6 pace. Few players can consistently earn 60 percent of actual goals at five-on-five the way he does, especially while soaking up the toughest minutes. Though his finishing wasn’t there this season, Matthews still created a similar volume of chances and made up for some of the production lost with more assists. If Matthews’ floor is a 95-point pace with 60 percent of goals, that’s better than almost everyone else’s ceiling.
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It’s also worth noting Matthews has picked up his game a lot in the new year after a slow start. His 54 points in 42 games ranks fourth in the league.
On top of that, the Leafs also have two of the best wingers in hockey: Mitch Marner, a 200-foot player who’s good for 100 points, and William Nylander, a dynamic game-breaker who’s good for at least 40 goals. Few teams can match that. John Tavares having a renaissance season with 38 goals rounds out the core four.
The difference this time could be the emergence of Matthew Knies, a throwback power forward who’s built for the playoffs. Knies has taken his game to a new level this season, giving the team’s top end considerably more punch than previous seasons. He adds a different element to the core, one that could bring it alive.
All of that is a moot point though if the team’s top players don’t deliver. That’s been an issue that’s plagued them for most of their careers and will continue to be a talking point until proven otherwise. Sure, all their projected values look nice and shiny now, but playing at that actual level in the postseason is a different story.
The reason for that is the rest of the forward group looks ill-equipped. Depth scoring will be very hard to come by with the bottom six being mostly unable to drive much offense. It’s not ideal that they don’t really move the needle defensively, either.
The defense group can mitigate that and looks sturdier than usual, even if there isn’t a true No. 1. The Leafs’ top five defensemen can all drive play and all fit established roles, allowing the group to be stronger than the sum of its parts. Simon Benoit, though, is a significant weak link that can throw that all out of order. On a team where the other five defenders have an expected goal rate north of 49.5 percent, Benoit somehow sits at just 42 percent.
The Senators have the same problem on their third pair. While Ottawa’s top four offers the same role versatility with stronger players for each role than the Leafs offer, the third pair is a real eyesore. Despite playing heavily sheltered minutes, the pair of Tyler Kleven and Travis Hamonic have been outscored 11-3 this season. Kleven’s work with Nikolas Matinpalo is not very inspiring either.
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All that means is that the top four will have to deliver, and this is the one area where the Senators outclass the Leafs. Jake Sanderson looks like a true franchise defender, something the Leafs do not have. His partner, Artem Zub, appears defensively comparable to Tanev, while Thomas Chabot brings more offensive punch than Rielly. Nick Jensen looks solid as well. Head-to-head, the Senators have the edge here with Sanderson being the main factor. He’s a stud who has the potential to tilt the series.
They’ll need it to be a big edge, though, with how large the talent gap looks up front. Playoff Brady is a possibility where Tkachuk feels like a player who can elevate his game, but on paper Ottawa’s best forward is the fourth-best skater in the series.
That’s not an ideal start and things get more dire from there. Tim Stützle has had a nice bounce-back season with 76 points, but that’s partially bloated by a high secondary assist count. With 53 percent of actual and expected goals, his play-driving isn’t at the level of Toronto’s top guys.
That duo might be able to prove their worth and hang with the big dogs on the other side, but the drop-off afterward is worrying. While the Leafs have a potent big five up front, the Senators don’t even have a big three. Drake Batherson, Shane Pinto and Claude Giroux are nice players, but none look like true top-line talents. Dylan Cozens has received some fanfare for his time with the Senators, but he’s still scoring at just a 53-point pace while getting crushed at five-on-five. He’s the same defensive liability he was in Buffalo.
Ottawa’s bottom six can make up some ground as it does grade out slightly better than Toronto’s, but it’s not enough to compensate for the large edge the Leafs have in the top six. Hockey is a strong link game and there’s a lot more to like about Toronto’s top end.
That is, of course, if Toronto’s top players deliver on that promise. That should be a lot easier to do against the post-rebuild Senators compared to the Bruins, Panthers and Lightning. Should.
Anthony Stolarz vs. Linus Ullmark
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If goaltending is the great equalizer, the Leafs and Senators are well prepared for Round 1. Two summer acquisitions, Stolarz and Ullmark, have been difference-makers this year.
Stolarz has put up sparkling numbers, though that’s nothing new for him. On a per-game basis, he had an elite track record coming into the season which is part of the reason he grades out so highly. He looks like the real deal after putting together an exceptional season — second only to Connor Hellebuyck in GSAx — under a larger workload. Stolarz is also coming into the postseason hot, with stellar results over the last eight games. Now the question is how he will handle a starter’s workload in his first real playoff experience; he has only appeared in 35 minutes of postseason action.
Ullmark is familiar with those questions. He now has 10 playoff appearances under his belt and showed he has the chops to be a number one in Ottawa. Despite some injuries and hurdles, he saved 17 goals above expected in 43 games and gave the Sens a chance on most nights.
Stolarz and Ullmark progressed a ton this year, and now it’s time to put that growth to the test.
Sunday, April 20: Ottawa at Toronto, 7 p.m. ET (SN, CBC, TVAS, ESPN2)
Tuesday, April 22: Ottawa at Toronto, 7:30 p.m. ET (SN, CBC, TVAS, ESPN2)
Thursday, April 24: Toronto at Ottawa, 7 p.m. ET (SNE, SNO, SNP, CBC, TVAS, ESPN2)
Saturday, April 26: Toronto at Ottawa, 7 p.m. ET (SN, CBC, TVAS, ESPN2)
Tuesday, April 29: Ottawa at Toronto (if necessary)
Thursday, May 1: Toronto at Ottawa (if necessary)
Saturday, May 3: Ottawa at Toronto (if necessary)
The Leafs’ regular season earned them a series against a weaker opponent than they’ve seen in quite a while. The Sens’ regular season earned them a chance at dealing their biggest rival its nastiest loss since … well, last year. On paper, the Leafs are a solid pick — but as we know, that’s not where the games are played.
References
How these projections work
Understanding projection uncertainty
Resources
Evolving-Hockey
Natural Stat Trick
Hockey-Reference
NHL
All Three Zones Tracking by Corey Sznajder
(Top photo of Anthony Stolarz, Simon Benoit and Brady Tkachuk: Dan Hamilton / Imagn Images)
