NHL
NHL Playoffs
We’re a few days into the playoffs. Have you had a chance to unclench yet?
Probably not. And you probably won’t for a while yet, because this is the time of year when everything that happens feels massive. We watch a game, or a period, or a shift. We overreact. And then something else happens, and we either double down or swing all the way in the other direction. It’s both the best and worst part of the playoffs, all rolled into one.
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In one word: Pressure. It’s unbearable. And that’s just for us as fans. Imagine what it’s like for the teams in the middle of it.
Of course, that pressure isn’t divided equally, and some teams are facing significantly more than others. So today, let’s do our annual Pressure Rankings, as we count down from the teams that don’t want to lose to the teams that absolutely can’t.
I feel like this is a pretty easy one to start with. And that’s true even if you factor in the fact that it’s Montreal, quite possibly the most pressure-filled hockey market on the planet.
So sure, under ordinary circumstances, the Habs would be under all sorts of pressure. And maybe they will be … next year. But this season, nobody thought they were making the playoffs and few thought they’d even come close. They’re playing with house money. As I wrote about the Maple Leafs all those years ago, this is the fun year. If they win a round or two, awesome. If not, it’s a learning experience.
If they lose, it will be … a sad ending to a wonderful ride that’s left a tough-to-please fan base excited and optimistic for the future.
They’re back in the playoffs after last year’s miss, and trying to avoid what would be their eighth straight opening-round loss. It will take an upset for it to happen, because just about everyone seems to be picking Vegas.
The good news in Minnesota is that they’ve amassed some nice young talent and the cap situation frees up nicely next year, so you could look at this year’s playoffs as an appetizer. I think that’s probably the right view, even as you never want to go down meekly in round one.
If they lose, it will be … probably the last time it feels acceptable for this team to make a first-round exit.
A late-season win streak transformed them from bubble also-rans to, well, something else. We’re still not quite sure what, because they’re heavy underdogs to the Jets. But as far as late-season transformations, nobody can match the Blues.
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The elephant in the room here is 2019, when the team went from dead last to Stanley Cup champions. It’s tempting to try to force this year into that same narrative, even if it’s not quite a fit.
If they lose, it will be … an expected result that still might feel like a missed opportunity.
It’s been a weird two years for the Devils, a team we all anointed as contenders two years ago. Last season, they missed the playoffs entirely. This time, they addressed the goaltending and made the postseason with relative ease, but arrive without Jack Hughes and with nobody seeming to think they can beat Carolina.
So, where does that leave us? I’m not sure. I think a first-round exit would be mostly hand-waved away because of the Hughes injury, and we’d all put them back in our playoff mix for next year. If so, this ranking is just about right, and maybe should be even lower.
If they lose, it will be … the 12th time in 13 years that they’re not in the second round, but probably understandable.
They won their first Cup last year, which lowers the pressure. But they’re still very clearly in win-now mode, including big swings on trades for Seth Jones and Brad Marchand. And they’re facing the Lightning, the bully who used to kick sand in their face but whom they finally managed to stand up to in recent years. They don’t want their reign on top of the Eastern conference to end at all, but they definitely don’t want it to end here.
If they lose, it will be … a frustrating end to a fantastic three-year run.
They’re finally back, after eight years in the wilderness. And with a young roster, a new coach and new management that’s worked hard to expel the silliness of the last decade, the future is bright. Under normal circumstances, they’d have already called this season a success, much like Montreal.
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Except … well, here come the Maple Leafs, and a chance to shed the little brother label, or at least put a dent in it. Ottawa is the underdog and a loss here isn’t a disaster. But it would feel like a wasted chance at revenge, one that hands more ammo to a rival fan base who’d make sure they knew about it.
If they lose, it will be … the Jacques Martin era all over again, at least for a few weeks.
This year’s poster child for the current playoff format’s many haters, the Avs drew a brutal first-round matchup with the Stars. In theory, they should be in great shape, with improved goaltending and the pending inspirational return of captain Gabriel Landeskog. The Stars matchup is a bit less daunting due to injuries and the Avs looked impressive in Game 1, but Monday night’s OT loss reminds us that it won’t be easy. With the Jets probably waiting in round two, the path is ugly. Then again, if they do win it all, nobody can say they didn’t earn it.
If they lose, it will be … a missed opportunity to prove once and for all that they’re the West’s final boss.
The Pacific’s top seed is all in, as always. They’re nicely positioned for a long run, and maybe a return to the final. But if they fail, like they did last year, who knows what Kelly McCrimmon and his ruthless front office might do?
Yes, they won it all just two years ago, which in theory lessens the pressure. But this team just doesn’t accept failure. And they view failure as just about any season where they’re not playing in the final.
If they lose, it will be … a potentially wild offseason for a franchise that doesn’t know any other way to do things.
They’re a tough one. On one hand, they’ve already exceeded all expectations. Heading into the season, they were considered a long shot to even make the playoffs — not a single one of you picked them in the prediction contest — and they defied the experts by holding down the East’s top seed pretty much all year long. Oh, and Alex Ovechkin delivered on his goals record chase. They’ve already had a season for the ages, even if they get shocked by the Habs in round one.
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Except … if they do lose, some of those critics will take a victory lap and say they were a paper tiger all along. And even if that’s not true, this year did have a very strong “everything that can go right does” vibe, and Caps fans know that those seasons don’t come around often. In fact, you could look at this as the last great team of the Ovechkin era. It would be a shame to waste it once the games matter most.
If they lose, it will be … a stunning end to a feel-good season that lets all the other fan bases sneer about how they were right all along.
The oddsmakers still had them as slight underdogs heading into Game 1, despite having home ice advantage. That has to sting, but it will sting a lot worse if they lose to the Oilers for the fourth year in a row.
After all, the Oilers aren’t going anywhere. And with the playoff format as it is now, the Kings are going to have to beat them to get anywhere meaningful. If that’s not possible, then … well, what are we doing here?
If they lose, it will be … a demoralizing confirmation that they just don’t have a path out of the Pacific during the Connor McDavid era.
With a Cup drought about to hit six decades, the Leafs were second in last year’s rankings. The year before that, they were such an obvious pick for number one that we didn’t even bother including them in the list.
Now they’re yet another year into their “can’t win when it matters” era, and they’re a big favorite against a provincial rival whose fan base lives for beating Toronto. Lose here and Leaf fans will never hear the end of it. Oh, and one of their best players would probably leave as a free agent.
So shouldn’t they be ranked higher? Maybe. I can see the case. But also … I mean, at some point, the story just gets old, right? We’ve done this so many times with the Leafs that the annual stories about last stands now have to be qualified as “ultimate” last stands. They really mean it this time!
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At some point, pressure stops being pressure and just turns into noise, and it feels like the Leafs have eaten their way through to the other side. Win or don’t win. Blow it up or don’t. A big chunk of the fan base is just numb at this point. They still rank high, but the monotony of this recycled story means they’re not as high as you might expect.
If they lose, it will be … impossible to run it back, right up until they do.
Last year’s number one team on the rankings has slipped a bit.
You could read that sentence two ways. They’ve slipped in the rankings, if only a few spots. And the reason is that they’ve also slipped in terms of their contender status, which in turn tends to dial back the pressure, if only a little.
The bottom line is that this team came as close as they possibly could last year, then spent most of this season either seeming like that long run was wearing on them, or like a true contender that now knows the regular season barely matters. We’ll find out which it is over the next few days, although Monday’s start wasn’t promising. And while they did get Leon Draisaitl signed, this summer is the big one — McDavid. He’s never shown any signs of eyeing the door, as much as other fan bases have tried to manifest it, but another long playoff run would certainly make Oilers fans more comfortable about him staying.
If they lose, it will be … yet another opportunity lost for the greatest forward duo of their era.
This is their seventh straight year of making the playoffs, and they’ve developed a reputation for leaving us wanting more. That’s a little weird, given that they’ve won more series than they’ve lost over time, including two trips to the conference final. But they haven’t been able to break through and play for a Stanley Cup, and they no longer feel like a trendy pick to win it all.
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Maybe they should be. The East is tough, but it’s hardly terrifying. They’re heavy favorites against the Devils, and probably would be against the Capitals (or Habs) in round two. And nobody from the Atlantic looks unbeatable. The path out of the conference is easy to find.
The question is whether they’re good enough, especially up front. That’s where the Mikko Rantanen saga hangs over everything. The Hurricanes thought they needed an elite game-breaker, so they went out and got one. But when he didn’t want to stay, they made the tough call to ship him out at the deadline. That was probably the right choice, but it won’t feel that way if they lose another winnable series because they can’t score when it matters.
If they lose, it will be … a second-guessing season for a team that chose not to do things the easy way.
Flags fly forever. And the Lightning already have flags, plural, from this core. But they’ve gone all in on earning more, including trading away their next three first-round picks and basically forgoing any kind of prospect pipeline. They even sent Steven Stamkos to go live on a big fancy farm in Tennessee. This organization is focused on the short term and the short term only.
Unfortunately, that short term is the Panthers, their top rival and the team that’s replaced them as the class of the East … for now. Now the Lightning have a shot at reclaiming their title, and everyone seems to be picking them to do just that. But you have to wonder how much longer the window will stay open — and whether it will close slowly, or with a Bruins-like collapse.
If they lose, it will be … not the end, necessarily, but a clock ticking louder and louder.
Another tricky one. There’s a strong case to be made for the Stars going in the one-spot, because they’ve gone all in on a contender that (unlike most of the other teams we could say that for) hasn’t won anything yet. After years of being the West’s close-but-not-quite story, including three trips to the conference final in the 2020s, trading for Mikko Rantanen should have been the final sign that it’s officially now or never to take that final step.
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Except … how do you factor in the injuries to Miro Heiskanen and Jason Robertson? If the Devils get a quasi-pass for missing Jack Hughes, shouldn’t the same thinking apply here? On most teams, it would. But the Stars aren’t like most teams.
If they lose, it will be … maybe the most devastating case of “what if we were healthy?” in recent memory.
If you were going to sketch out what a perfect Jets season would look like, this would be it. Their best player was so good that he should win the MVP. Their other leaders all met or exceeded expectations. They were relatively healthy. And in a brutal division, they managed to finish first and earn a very winnable matchup. Add it all up, and they’ve already banked their first-ever Presidents’ Trophy.
Will that matter? Not if they can’t make a deep run. Even putting aside concerns over attendance, which we probably shouldn’t, it’s hard to see where they go from here if it all falls apart in the postseason once again. We know they’re never going to be a big UFA destination, and they’re going to be on no-trade clauses around the league. Those are big obstacles most teams don’t deal with, but they’re just the reality for Winnipeg. They basically need to draft well, keep the stars they develop and then hope it all comes together in one perfect season. And so far this year, that’s pretty much what’s happening.
Mix in a 2-0 series lead over the Blues that suggests they can escape the first round relatively easily, and the path is all laid out. This isn’t a young team, and the degree of difficulty may be higher in Winnipeg than anywhere else. It’s there for the taking right now, with the whole country ready to root for them. If not now, when?
If they lose, it will be … a waste of the best opportunity the market has ever had, and may ever get.
(Top photo: John E. Sokolowski / Imagn Images)
Sean McIndoe has been a senior NHL writer with The Athletic since 2018. He launched Down Goes Brown in 2008 and has been writing about hockey ever since, with stops including Grantland, Sportsnet and Vice Sports. His book, “The Down Goes Brown History of the NHL,” is available in book stores now. Follow Sean on Twitter @DownGoesBrown

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