To conclude our mini-series assessing the NHL’s 16 playoff teams, let’s wrap up with the Eastern Conference. The East does not look like as much of a gauntlet as the West, but there are some intriguing matchups, including the Battle of Ontario. Which teams played their best over their final 25 regular-season games entering the playoffs?
You have to hand it to Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois, who’s retooled this team on the fly and made them a Stanley Cup contender again. Jake Guentzel has been the perfect fit for the Lightning, while Yanni Gourde has been a valuable trade-deadline pickup.
It also helps that Nikita Kucherov has had a Hart-worthy season and that Andrei Vasilevskiy is a Vezina contender again. Still, this Lightning team is quite good. They totaled an expected goals share (xG%) of 51.34 percent over their final 25 regular-season games, ranked 13th in the NHL.
The one issue for the Lightning is that they have to face the Florida Panthers — the defending Stanley Cup champions — in the first round. The Panthers have struggled a bit down the stretch due to injuries, but they’re still a great team, especially if Matthew Tkachuk returns for the playoffs. Even if the Lightning defeat the Panthers, it could be a grueling seven-game series that takes a lot out of them. But they are good enough to make a run and win the conference.
Speaking of the Panthers, even though they were 13-11-1 across their final 25 games, they’re still a Stanley Cup contender. Their 55.23 xG% ranked fourth in the NHL across their last 25 games, so they’ve been playing good hockey. The results haven’t been there because they’ve missed players like Tkachuk.
Aside from their five-on-five game, the Panthers’ special teams have performed well. Their power play converted on 21.4 percent of its chances over their final 25 games, and they killed 84 percent of the penalties they faced. Sergei Bobrovsky finished the season with a .905 save percentage and looks to be rounding into Playoff Bob form.
When healthy, I’d pick the Panthers as the best team in the Eastern Conference. The problem is they’re facing perhaps the second-best team in the East in the Lightning. The same argument applies to them as it does for Tampa. It could be a grueling seven-game series, but they could repeat as conference champs.
The Capitals are somewhat of a tweener for me, but I’ll throw them in the Stanley Cup contender category since they finished with the best record in the Eastern Conference. On the surface, things look good for them. They had a 52.14 xG% over their final 25 games, a top-10 mark in the NHL.
However, head coach Spencer Carbery has been concerned for a while about some breakdowns in their structure. The Capitals had secured their playoff position for weeks, if not months. Aside from Alex Ovechkin’s historic goals record, they haven’t had much to play for in a while. Perhaps that’s affected their play, but the signs of a team overachieving have been there.
I don’t think the 2023-24 Vancouver Canucks are an apples-to-apples comparison for this year’s Capitals, but there are some similarities. Just about everything went right for both teams — sky-high shooting and save percentages, etc. That Canucks team took the Edmonton Oilers to seven games in Round 2, and I can see the Capitals making it that far at a minimum. But it wouldn’t shock me if they meet a similar fate to last season’s Canucks, too.
It’s pretty much the same old story for the Hurricanes. They’ve been one of the best five-on-five teams in the NHL all season, especially across their last 25 games, but the same concerns they’ve had for a few years are prevalent entering this year’s postseason.
First, the Hurricanes have played well at five-on-five, totaling a 56.05 xG%. Only Utah HC had a better xG% across their final 25 contests. However, it didn’t translate into as many wins as it should have, as they had a 14-10-1 record across their final 25 games.
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One reason for the struggles in the win/loss column, especially recently, was goaltending. Pyotr Kochetkov will be the presumed starter for Game 1 against the New Jersey Devils, but he’s been struggling. He enters the playoffs with an .878 save percentage across his final ten regular-season appearances.
Adding to some of the concerns is that the Hurricanes don’t have a game-breaking scorer, and they’ve once again underperformed their expected goal rates; they scored 54 five-on-five goals on 63.04 expected goals over their final 25 games. It’s also worth noting they lost seven of their final eight regular-season games. They’ll probably get by the Devils, but I’m unsure what lies ahead. They could get bounced by the Devils, or they could win the East. Everything seems on the table.
The Devils did get Dougie Hamilton back from injury sooner than expected, but they still have a tall task ahead of them. They’ll be without Jack Hughes and Jonas Siegenthaler, and their numbers reflect how much they’ve missed them. The team finished with a 48.18 xG% across their final 25 games, but their struggles date back to Christmas.
The Devils have a 19-22-4 record since the holiday break and essentially backed their way into the playoffs because the Metropolitan Division was so weak. They’re a top-five team on the power play and penalty kill, and their goaltending has been sharp for most of the season, so that’s their best path to making a run. It wouldn’t shock me if they upset a reeling Hurricanes team, but the odds are stacked against them without two of their top players.
Most people seem to be counting the Senators out against the Toronto Maple Leafs, and I understand why. Despite their playoff struggles, the Maple Leafs have the more experienced group, and their top-end talent is better than the Senators’.
However, I wouldn’t rule out the Senators making it a series and even giving the Maple Leafs a scare. The Senators are not a great five-on-five team and haven’t been for most of the season, but their five-on-five numbers entering the playoffs are better than the Maple Leafs’.
The Senators finished with a 48.14 xG% across their final 25 games, a couple of percent better than the Maple Leafs. They have a great goaltender in Linus Ullmark and are a sound defensive team. It’s a young group that doesn’t have much postseason experience, so I wouldn’t bet on them making a deep run, but they should give the Maple Leafs a tough time.
The Canadiens were the most surprising team to clinch a playoff berth this season. They’re arguably a year ahead of schedule and got in on the backs of high-end performances from Cole Caufield, Nick Suzuki and Lane Hutson. Unfortunately, they have long odds of even getting past the Capitals in Round 1.
Head coach Marty St. Louis’ team did not play particularly well over their last 25 games, finishing with an xG% of 46.35 percent. The only playoff team to have a worse xG% across their final 25 contests was the Dallas Stars, and they had a seven-game losing streak to close the season. The Canadiens are a nice story, but I’m not expecting their playoff run to last long.
Finally, the Maple Leafs. I get it. It’s probably surprising to see them here since they won the Atlantic Division, but there are red flags. Their five-on-five numbers are not as bad as the Stars’ entering the playoffs, but they aren’t far off.
The Maple Leafs totaled a 46.37 xG% across their final 25 games, nearly equal to the Canadiens. Furthermore, they gave up 2.62 expected goals per 60 while only generating 2.27 per 60. Their special teams have been good, and Anthony Stolarz would have been a Vezina contender had he not missed nearly two months of action with an injury, but I’m concerned about the Maple Leafs.
That’s why the Senators could give them a run for their money. The Maple Leafs are not the five-on-five team they were under Sheldon Keefe, and Stolarz barely has any playoff experience. They probably get by the Senators, but the Lightning or Panthers would likely be heavy favorites to defeat them in Round 2.
The East is more open than the West, but there’s a dropoff once you get to the Devils, Canadiens and Senators. There could be an upset or two early on, but you’ll most likely see some of the usual suspects once we get to the Eastern Conference Final.
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