Sharks have best odds of winning No. 1 pick; defenseman Schaefer, forwards Misa, Hagens could be prize
There will be plenty of excitement and intrigue surrounding the 2025 NHL Draft Lottery, which will be held May 5 at NHL Network studios in Secaucus, New Jersey. The event will be broadcast on ESPN in the United States and Sportsnet and TVA Sports in Canada, at a time to be announced.
The prize for the team that wins the No. 1 pick appears to be defenseman Matthew Schaefer (6-foot-2, 183 pounds), who played for Erie of the Ontario Hockey League.
Schaefer, who is No. 1 on NHL Central Scouting’s final ranking of North American skaters, has been compared by scouts to Columbus Blue Jackets defenseman Zach Werenski because of his skating, competitiveness and hockey sense.
“He is the best available prospect at his position and the results he achieves with his combination of speed, skills and size give him the edge for the No. 1 spot,” NHL Central Scouring director Dan Marr said. “While his game is still maturing, he’s playing a style that will transition well once he gets his NHL opportunity.”
Schaefer did not play again after having surgery Dec. 30 because of a broken clavicle sustained three days earlier while playing for Canada at the 2025 IIHF World Junior Championship in Ottawa. He also missed the opening nine games of the season because of mononucleosis. When Schaefer was able to play, he had 22 points (seven goals, 15 assists) and a plus-21 rating in 17 games. He could become the first player from Erie to go No. 1 in the NHL draft since Connor McDavid to the Edmonton Oilers in 2015.
The lottery will set the order of selection for the first 16 picks for the clubs that failed to qualify for the Stanley Cup Playoffs. The Upper Deck 2025 NHL Draft will be held at L.A. Live’s Peacock Theater in Los Angeles. The first round will be held June 27 (7 p.m. ET; ESPN, ESPN+, SN, TVAS), with rounds 2-7 on June 28 (Noon ET; NHLN, ESPN+, SN, SN1).
There will be two drawings, one to determine the No. 1 pick and a second to determine the No. 2 choice. No team can move up more than 10 spots in the draft order; only the top 11 teams in the lottery are eligible for the No. 1 pick. If a team outside the top 11 wins, the team with the worst record in the NHL will pick No. 1.
The San Jose Sharks (20-50-12), who finished with the League’s worst record, have the best odds to win the lottery at 18.5 percent, followed by the Chicago Blackhawks (25-46-11) at 13.5 percent and the Nashville Predators (30-44-8) at 11.5 percent.
The Sharks won the lottery last year and selected forward Macklin Celebrini with the No. 1 pick of the 2024 NHL Draft. The 18-year-old tied for second among NHL rookies this season with 63 points (25 goals, 38 assists) in 70 games.
There are two skilled forwards who could challenge Schaefer for the No. 1 spot, especially if a team is in need of a top-two center in the very near future.
Michael Misa of Saginaw (OHL) and James Hagens of Boston College in Hockey East are Nos. 2-3, respectively, on Central Scouting’s list of North American skaters.
Misa (6-1, 184) is the first player in Saginaw history to win the Eddie Powers Trophy as the top scorer in the OHL, finishing the regular season with 134 points (62 goals, 72 assists). The Saginaw captain had at least one point in 60 of 65 regular-season games and tied John Tavares (2006-07) for the most points by an OHL player under 18 since 2000 (Misa turned 18 on Feb. 16). His style of play has been compared to Nashville Predators center Steven Stamkos.
“He’s the type of player that, if there’s a man in a better position for a scoring opportunity and if the proper read is to get the puck to that man, he’ll do it,” Central Scouting’s Nick Smith said. “And he does it with such quickness and elite hockey sense that it’s just great to watch.”
Hagens (5-10, 177), whose playmaking ability and skating resemble Clayton Keller of the Utah Hockey Club, was third for Boston College with 37 points (11 goals, 26 assists) in 37 games skating as the No. 1 center between Gabe Perreault (New York Rangers) and Ryan Leonard (Washington Capitals). He also tied for the United States lead with five goals in seven games to help the U.S. win the gold medal at the 2025 WJC.
“I mean, as far as like driving and creating plays, Misa has lit the lamp more, but Hagens played in a bigger, stronger league and can do that too,” Smith said. “I think Misa may be a little bigger, a little stronger down low, and maybe in the trenches a little bit more, but they’re pretty similar players.”
Rounding out the top six North American skaters are right-shot center Jake O’Brien with Brantford (OHL), right-shot defenseman Radim Mrtka of Seattle in the Western Hockey League and right wing Porter Martone of Brampton (OHL).
Forwards Anton Frondell and Victor Eklund are Nos. 1-2, respectively, on Central Scouting’s International skater ranking. They each play for Djurgarden in Sweden’s second division.
Frondell (6-1, 198), a center, had 25 points (11 goals, 14 assists) in 29 games. Eklund (5-11, 161), a right wing and the brother of San Jose Sharks forward William Eklund, had 31 points (19 goals, 12 assists) in 42 games.
“Some minor injuries slowed [Frondell] a bit during the early season but he’s a strong skater, skilled, and a two-way player,” NHL Director of European Scouting Jukka-Pekka Vuorinen said. “Eklund plays with a lot of confidence and intensity. He’s a playmaker with an ability to manipulate with great vision and creativity.”
Though Schaefer is the projected No. 1 pick, Marr said anything can happen in the opening round.
“This is a deep draft class in the top three rounds and it’s great for the NHL to have such a solid crop of top-end prospects,” Marr said. “The top three or four players will likely be interchangeable depending on one’s definition of best available and the rest of the top 10 will be hard to displace.”
