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Continuing to carry on an annual Dobber Hockey tradition started long ago, I once again bring you Fearless Forecasts for the upcoming fantasy season. On a positive note, I had infinitely more correct forecasts for 2024-25 than I did for 2023-24, although that was because none of my 2023-24 forecasts actually ended up happening! And for 2024-25, technically only one was correct, although I was on the right track with others, including predicting a huge breakout from Zach Werenski. Also, as recently as 2022-23 I had several correct. Long story short, it’s been an up and – mostly – down trend of late.
My hope of course is to do better this season. But as I always underscore, these are termed Fearless Forecasts because they’re bolder than garden-variety predictions, such that if I get even half correct, I’d consider it an outstanding result. Why, then, would you benefit from reading these? Because even for ones which end up being off the mark, usually my reasoning can provide helpful insight.
And the icing on the cake is you get to have your voices heard, as there will be a link at the end of the column to where you can vote for which Forecasts you believe will come true, or if you think that none will. With that sorted out, onto what you’re here for………..the Forecasts!
1) Neal Pionk will have a higher scoring rate than Josh Morrissey
Last season Pionk had a 46-point scoring rate, marking the first time in four seasons he was above a point per every other game. Meanwhile, although on the second season of a downswing, Morrissey still had a scoring rate of 64 points, and in fact had a scoring rate in both 2022-23 and 2023-24 which was double that of Pionk’s. So how is it possible I see Pionk outpacing Morrissey in scoring?
It boils down to trends, money, and hidden talent. Fresh off inking a six-year extension to stay with the Jets and, in doing so, avoiding unrestricted free agency, Pionk earns $7M per season, versus $6.25M for Morrissey. Granted, Pionk already had been making $5.85M under his prior contract, which was not that much less than Morrissey; but him making more than Morrissey does hold weight, as does the fact Pionk seemingly signed for a discount to stay with the Jets in hopes of keeping the team’s core together.
We also cannot ignore that Morrissey, after flirting with point per game production in 2022-23, saw his scoring rate drop by double digits in 2023-24, then ended 2024-25 with a mere 16 points in his last 26 games, and that despite six alone in his last four contests of the regular season. Yet this occurred while his share of PP minutes stayed steady and his offensive zone starting percentage actually increased. That is a pattern which has to be concerning to the Jets, as he just was scoring less, plain and simple.
Meanwhile, Pionk started 2024-25 with 17 points in 16 games. Yes, that means he slowed quite a bit thereafter; but in those 16 contests he had four PPPts, this despite not taking the ice for more than 37% of the team’s PP minutes in any of those 16 games. And Pionk finished 2024-25 with a 66.7% PP IPP, which is very solid for a rearguard, with only eight defensemen in the entire league who had more PPPts than his 12 also having a higher PP IPP. And this was not a one-time thing, as Pionk has been above a 60% PP IPP on four prior occasions. Moreover, the one and only time Pionk was tasked to run PP1 was 2019-20, when he had 25 PPPts in 71 games for the Rangers, with a PP IPP of 86.2%!
I can see a universe where, during the course of the season, Pionk supplants Morrissey as the PP1 QB. If that happens, and he succeeds, Pionk could see more favorable deployment as a whole, as opposed to the roughly 45% OZ% he’s had the past two seasons. And when the dust settles on 2025-26, it may be Pionk with the highest scoring rate among Winnipeg rearguards.
2) At least 20 NHL teams will have a defenseman with a higher scoring rate than Miro Heiskanen
There was a lot of spirited debate in the DobberHockey Forums this offseason as to whether Heiskanen is indeed still the defensemen who put up 73 points in 2022-23, or instead – similar to the likes of Duncan Keith, Drew Doughty, and Morgan Rielly, among others – someone who’ll on occasion connect the dots for a great season, but more frequently will not be an upper echelon scorer. Suffice it to say that from my forecast, I’m in the latter camp. And here’s why.
While many will point to him following up his 73-point season with one which saw him post 54 points in 71 games for 2023-24, for a 62-point scoring pace, he actually ended that campaign with ten points in his last 17 games. Then he proceeded to slump to 25 points in 50 games for 2024-25, which, let’s also not forget, occurred entirely prior to him getting hurt. So, things have not been trending well.
Also, Heiskanen has gone from PP machine, to below average with the man advantage. Case in point is if we look at 2021-22 and 2022-23, he had the eighth most cumulative PPPts among all defensemen, this despite only ranking 23rd in cumulative PPTOI. Since then, however, it’s been a 180, as despite playing in only 121 of 164 games over the past two seasons, he nevertheless ranked 17th in cumulative PPTOI, but his PP scoring only put him tied for 23rd. And keep in mind, Dallas was very stingy in terms of PPTOI for its forwards, with there being only five instances among those four seasons of any forward taking the ice for over 61% of the team’s PP time. But now that there’s a new coaching regime, chances are the best of the best among Stars forwards will be treated more like top tier talent on other teams and log 70%+of its team’s PP minutes. Given this, more points might be scored on the PP; however, Heiskanen likely will not stand to benefit, as his PP IPP, after being 64.7% and 66.7% in those two outstanding years for him, shrank first to 53.8% and then last season to 41.2%.
I fully admit that when looking at other defensemen who, since 2000-01 and, like Heiskanen, had a season of 70+ points by age 23 and not later than their fifth NHL campaign, the list is filled with amazing talent like Cale Makar, Quinn Hughes, Rasmus Dahlin, Adam Fox, Erik Karlsson and even Mike Green. But after they did so, they either got even better, stayed as productive, or rose back to that level yet again within a couple of seasons. Heiskanen, on the other hand, has been on a downward slide.
Something else to consider is Heiskanen’s OZ% has been falling, from 60.6% in his 73-point season, then to 58.9%, and to 56.5% last season. As this has occurred, his overall IPP has fallen twice as well, dropping from 52.5% to from 2022-23 to 35.7% in 2024-25, while his percentage of secondary assists has risen, with a staggering 15 of his mere 20 assists (75%!) last season being secondary.
There is also the fact that when Heiskanen was sidelined in the second half, Thomas Harley stepped in and thrived, both at ES and on the PP. And let’s remember that Harley will have added motivation this season, as he’s set to be a RFA in 2026. I see a situation unfolding in Dallas akin to what occurred in Tampa in 2022-23, when Mikhail Sergachev elbowed Victor Hedman off PP1, leading Hedman to his least productive season since 2015-16.
Make no mistake- Heiskanen is paid like a #1 defenseman, and likely will keep that “spot”, such that if Harley forces Dallas’ hand with great play, they could do with him what Tampa did with Sergachev. But because of Heiskanen’s “real life” value, and à la Keith, Doughty, and Rielly, he’ll be increasingly tasked with playing key minutes, which might not always mean favorable deployment. Yes, they still managed to have some great seasons, and Heiskanen still might too. But I think 2025-26 will not be one of them.
3) Nikolaj Ehlers will fail to reach a 70-plus-point scoring pace
For 10 seasons, Ehlers was widely regarded by poolies as someone capable of doing far better than he was, if only the Jets would’ve deployed him more favorably. In fact, 2024-25 was the first ever season where Ehlers saw even 50% of his team’s PP minutes, and only once as a Jet did he average 17:00 of TOI per game in any campaign with Winnipeg! Yet still he produced at a 60+ point pace in eight of the last nine seasons, with scoring rates of 80, 73 and 75 in three of his last six.
Sure enough, when he became a UFA, he opted to sign elsewhere. But let’s not forget that although he inked a deal that pays him $8.5M per season for six years, it wasn’t signed until three days into free agency. Were teams just not as enamored with him as they – and we – thought they might be? The fact I’m even raising this is not a great sign.
On the surface, Ehlers should be primed for success though, with a secondary assist rate that was 33.3% or lower in three of the last four seasons, rising only to 40.8% in the other. And his overall IPP has been above 70% in all but one of his last nine seasons, when it was 69.6%. And three times it was 82%+! But I’d argue that was often owed to the fact he was not skating alongside the best of the best on the Jets. His IPP on the PP was just as strong; yet there too, it might have been a case of him being leaps and bounds better than the others, like him, mired on PP2.
I do realize that last season he was installed on PP1, and had 22 PPPs in 69 games, plus still produced well even though yet again he was not on the top line at ES, while for the ‘Canes, it seems all but certain he will be installed on the top line and PP1. And although Carolina is notorious for not heaping ice time on most forwards, Ehlers should get more considerably more TOI than he did as a Jet. But let’s not forget that despite his UFA payday he’s earning under $1M more than Andrei Svechnikov, who’d been the top LW in Carolina. Also, we saw a player as elite as Mikko Rantanen did not mesh there, so who’s to say Ehlers will? Did Ehlers shine and have such high IPPs and low secondary assist rates only because he was the cream of the crop among the second tier in Winnipeg? Can he step up and do well alongside true top echelon talent, and for what likely will be a couple more minutes of TOI per game? Unclear.
One thing to consider is that although past results do not dictate future outcomes, dating back 15 seasons to 2010-11 the highest point per game output from any Carolina winger over the course of a full season was Seth Jarvis at 0.92 last season, which was barely above Ehlers’ 0.91 last season. Other than that, it’s a cluster of rates in the 0.85 to 0.90 range. In short, Carolina’s system is not one that has led to high scoring outputs from wingers.
Do I think Ehlers will flop as a Cane? I’m not saying that. I do, however, believe there will at best be a learning curve, and at worst he, like Rantanen, might not click, leaving him to perhaps be a second liner again, much like he’d been in Winnipeg, and resulting in him scoring even worse than he did last season.
4) Travis Konecny will score at a 90-plus-point pace
Much has been made of how Matvei Michkov will fare in his second season, especially without having to play under a John Tortorella system. Yet as great as Michkov will likely become, I believe the star for the Flyers in 2025-26 is likely to be Konecny. Need proof?
For one, Konecny managed a 76-point pace last season, which is quite remarkable for a Torts player, as this is someone who, after his time in Tampa, coached the likes of the Sedin twins and Artemi Panarin, to some of their worst outputs. So, 76 points under Torts is tantamount to more like 86.
There’s also the reality that Konecny is a points magnet, having an overall IPP of 71% or higher in every season after his rookie campaign, and being above 82% in two of the last three seasons. In fact, a total of just one forward had a higher overall IPP than Konecny last season, and it was some guy named David Pastrnak, who we all know is as elite as they come. And in 2022-23 when Konecny’s overall IPP was above 82% also, no other forwards who scored 60+ points had a higher IPP, and the forward’s whose was the next highest was some guy named Connor McDavid. But it doesn’t end there.
Konecny had 24 goals in 2024-25, which, although lower than the 33 and 31 he had in his prior two seasons, was good considering his SOG rate fell from 3.2 in each of the prior two seasons to 2.3. And amazingly, Konecny hit 16 posts and 4 crossbars, for a total that was almost the same as his goals scored! To put that in better perspective, there were only three forwards with more combined posts and crossbars in 2024-25: Nathan MacKinnon, Auston Matthews, and Artemi Panarin, with 90 points being considered a very down year for each. In other words, that is fine company in which to be, and Konecny was inches away from a far better scoring rate last season despite playing under Torts.
So by all means, get excited about what Michkov might have in store for us this year. But be careful not to lose sight of Konecny, who should coast to a career best scoring rate.
5) Each of the Caps’ six highest scoring forwards from 2024-25 will see a scoring rate decrease
For those who don’t remember, those top six were Dylan Strome, Alex Ovechkin, Aliaksei Protas, Pierre-Luc Dubois, Tom Wilson, and Connor McMichael. And yes, I think all will see their scoring rate decline. Why? The Caps, as a team, shot 12.6%. And going back to when team SH% was tracked on nhl.com starting in 2009-10, that is the highest rate of any team in any season. Not only that, but of the only five other instances where a team shot at a rate of 12.0%+, just one had fewer goals than Washington in 2024-25, namely the 2023-24 Canucks, and we all know what happened there in 2024-25.
Beyond that, the team had one forward play over 18:00 per game, yet all six shot at a rate of 14.7% or higher. To put that in perspective, only 22 forwards scored 55+ points last season despite not seeing 18:00 of ice time. So, five of those 22 were Caps forwards. Yes, 16 of the 22 shot at a rate of 14.0% or higher; however, the only other team with more than one who met both criteria was the Stars, with Jason Robertson, Roope Hintz, and Matt Duchene all being below 18:00 in average TOI but above 14.0% in SH%. What do those four have in common? At least one prior season of point per game production, which only Alex Ovechkin had previously done among these six Washington forwards.
Consider also that expectations were quite low for the Caps entering 2024-25, with the team having scored 70 fewer goals in 2023-24. To go from 216 goals to 286 is essentially unfathomable and only explained by their sky-high shooting percentages. On top of all those factors, Ovechkin’s chase for the all-time goal scoring record likely helped inspire the team. No question it invigorated him, but I’m guessing also had a spillover effect which reached all its top scorers. Perhaps an argument can be made that the team saw what it could do and now will look to build upon that success. But one could just as easily say that with that success now comes greater expectations, which, given their outlying metrics, should see their top forwards each score at a lower rate when all is said and done for 2025-26.
6) No Lightning forward other than Nikita Kucherov will score at a point-per-game rate
The 2024-25 season saw the Bolts’ offense produce quite well, as usual. And not surprisingly this was thanks in large part to the presence of Nikita Kucherov, who had a stellar 121 points. But it also saw Brandon Hagel rise to a career best 90 points, the reliable Brayden Point tally 87 points, and newcomer Jake Guentzel produce at exactly a point per game. Why, then, do I see 2025-26 unfolding differently? Several reasons.
First, the power play. Kucherov had an amazing 46 PPPs. But guess what – that was actually down from the 53 that he had in 2023-24. Victor Hedman‘s PP production also was off too, as he had 26 PPPs, down from 36 in 2023-24. And although it is true that none of Point, Guentzel or Hagel saw a spike in PP scoring, the issue is it signifies that the Tampa PP, which was a well-oiled machine when Steven Stamkos was still with the team, is starting to be less productive. It has already affected Kucherov and Hedman, and chances are it will trickle down to these other three in 2025-26. Also, Guentzel was tops in the entire NHL in PPGs with 17, while Point was tied for second with 16. But where did they rank in PPSOG among all NHL forwards? Try 19th for Guentzel and 36th for Point. Meanwhile, Kucherov was tenth despite his only eight PPGs. Yet more reason for concern for Point and Guentzel in particular.
What of Hagel, who only had 11 PPPs? He had seven SHPs, after a prior high of three, plus 72 even strength points. How, when he skated only 25% of his even strength shifts with Kucherov and scored 18 even strength points, or just about 25% of his 72 even strength points, with Kucherov also on the ice? Probably due to his SH% at 5×5 being 11.0%, easily a career high, yet which does not jibe with his 42.5% OZ%. For perspective, of the 73 forwards with a lower OZ% who played 60+ games, the highest scoring rate of any was linemate Anthony Cirelli at 60, and just two others had a point per every other game.
Let’s also keep in mind that Point’s SH% has been over 20% in three straight seasons. Granted, he has always been an accurate shooter; however, this past season it was 22.2%, yet his scoring rate still fell for the second straight season, as did his SOG rate. It is clear Point relies heavily upon Kucherov feeding him pinpointed assists that lead directly to goals; however, he still is scoring at a lower and lower rate and cannot shoot above 20% forever.
As for Guentzel, his SOG rate was down almost a full shot per game. And his SH% of 19.0%, though lower than Point’s, was a good bit higher than his norm. He also had an 11.6% team SH% at 5×5, which is quite high from someone who’d never been in double digits other than in his first abbreviated NHL campaign, and despite playing alongside Sidney Crosby his entire time as a Pen. Plus, Guentzel’s overall and PP IPPs were under 60%, meaning he is no longer a points magnet.
In all, I think Tampa’s days as a supercharged offense are starting to wane and will continue to do so. As such, I’d be leery of banking on Lightning forwards other than Kucherov this season, and even he too might continue to shed points overall.
7) Montreal will finish in the top 5 in the NHL in goals scored
For perspective, last season the Habs landed at 17th in goals scored with 243, which put them 31 goals out of the fifth-place spot. So why is it I think they stand to click offensively so much better as to land them in the top five overall? It comes down to steady improvement from players continuing, plus the ability to finally ice more than one scoring line.
For starters, Nick Suzuki and Cole Caufield have seen their scoring rate increase every season they’ve been in the NHL. For Suzuki, that’s five straight, while for Caufield it’s four. But each has room to further improve, as last season Caufield skated just 18:05 per game, and took the ice for under two-thirds of Montreal’s PP minutes. Suzuki’s TOI was considerably higher at 20:04 and he is already taking the ice for 70% of Montreal’s PP time; however, that TOI was a full minute less than what he logged in each of the two prior seasons, meaning he can see his TOI rise again in the normal course.
Speaking of the PP, Montreal’s conversion rate rose from a miserable 12.7% to 17.5%. But that still put them only 21st. As a team they shot 11.6% overall, placing them 7th in the NHL, up from 10.2%, which had them in the middle of the pack in 2023-24. And yet despite these positive changes, their total goals scored increased by only 11. That does not add up until we see that as a team, they only had 2096 SOG, placing them 30th in the NHL, and down from 2269 in 2023-24. So, they can shoot more; and if they do, they stand to make major gains in scoring.
Also, if their players stay healthy, they have the makings of two genuine scoring lines. Of course, when talking about the likes of Kirby Dach and Patrik Laine, that is a big if. Still, it should not be worse than 2023-24, when both missed 25+ games. Also, the arrival of Ivan Demodov, who stepped right into the NHL and looked superb, should only help matters. In fact, they have the makings to be able to do in 2025-26 what Columbus did in 2024-25, where their forwards all played up to expectations and largely stayed healthy, plus they had a top tier defenseman, and they saw their goal total as a team rise from 234 to 267. And Montreal, if anything, has a better overall group of D, with Lane Hutson, Noah Dobson, and Mike Matheson, versus essentially just Zach Werenski for the Blue Jackets.
The Habs also showed signs of being more explosive as 2024-25 unfolded. Case in point – seven games of 4+ goals scored in the first half, versus 17 in the second half. But at the same time, they ended with a mere three PPGs in their last 15 games. And of their 47 PPGs, 23 came in their first 33 games. In short, they were scoring more as the season unfolded despite the headwind of lack success on the PP.
If you’re looking for this season’s Blue Jackets, consider the Habs. The difference is Montreal should have what it takes to infiltrate the NHL’s top five in goals scored, whereas Columbus fell short. Also, there should be a spot in the top five since one of the teams who was there last season was the Caps, who, given what you read above, are not likely to land that high again in 2025-26.
8) MacKenzie Blackwood will have a GAA above 3.00, a SV% under .900, and a QS% under 50%
In some drafts, Blackwood is being chosen as a top five netminder. The thinking is he did well with the Avs, who also committed to him in the form of a five-year contract, signifying he’s their go-to goalie. But Blackwood was not a good goalie before getting to Colorado, and the greatness of those around him, in my opinion, will not prevent him from showing he’s the same leopard with the same spots.
On the surface, Blackwood’s 2024-25 numbers seem strong, with a GAA of 2.53, SV% of .912, and QS% of 60.7. And yes, he was “weighted down” by a very poor Q1 with the Sharks. But closer scrutiny reveals that Blackwood’s overall stats are bolstered significantly by 16 Q2 games which saw him win 11, while posting peripherals of 1.87 GAA, .938 SV% and a QS% of 75%. But a quarter of those games came with San Jose, meaning only 12 were with the Avs. And from there, Blackwood got worse in Q3, then even lousier in Q4.
Also, let’s pause to recall how downright awful Blackwood was prior to last season. Dating back to the 1990-91 season, there had been only 11 other NHL goalies who had 20+ appearances with both a GAA over 3.00 and a SV% under .900 in at least half their first six seasons and by the age of 27. The only other active goalie who fits the criteria is Karel Vejmelka. But of the nine who’ve retired, just two, the not so venerable J.S. Aubin and Jeff Hackett, did not have both a career GAA above 3.00 and a career SV% under .900. I realize in the 90s there were a lot more goals being scored, but here are the other seven, so you can see how bad goalies like this turned out: Tim Chevaldae, Tommy Soderstrom, Craig Billington, Jeff Reese, Stephane Fiset, Kay Whitmore, Rick Tabaricci, and Ron Tugnutt. It would be one thing if any of them – literally just one of them – amounted to anything, but none did.
And let’s not forget it wasn’t long ago that everyone was all aboard the Aleksander Georgiev train, after he led the entire NHL in wins for the Avs not once but twice. Yet in that second season the wheels were already starting to fall off, with him sporting a 3.02 GAA, .897 SV% and QS% of 43.5% despite leading all netminders in wins. And Georgiev had been arguably better than Blackwood before joining the Avs.
So maybe Blackwood, like Georgiev in 2023-24, racks up wins. But maybe not; and even if he does, my guess is his peripherals will be as bad or worse than Georgiev’s given Blackwood’s poor track record.
9) Jake Sanderson will average at least a point per game
No question Sanderson has been highly touted, initially as a second-generation player then after he was selected fifth overall in the 2020 draft. But his first two seasons saw him produce below a point per every other game pace; and although that rose to a 59-point pace last season, he’d need to make quite a leap to hit a point per game in 2025-26. But I think he’s a good bet to do so.
For one, after missing Ottawa’s January 23rd game, Sanderson returned and proceeded to produce exactly a point per game over the remainder of the season – 33 points in 33 games. That is a very big chunk of time and already shows he can sustain an elite scoring level.
Also, although Sanderson finished tied for tenth overall in defensemen scoring, his 30 PPPs were second to only Cale Makar. And yes, Ottawa was tied for the league lead in PPGs last season with 64, but the team converted on 23.8% of their man advantage opportunities, which put them only 11th among all teams and means there is room for them to fare even better on the PP. Also, although Sanderson’s PPP total was sky high, his PP IPP of 65.2% lagged well behind three of the other top four defensemen in PPPs, namely Cale Makar (77.8%), Quinn Hughes (78.4%), and Lane Hutson (74.3%). So not only can his team do better on the PP in the normal course, but Sanderson could realistically factor even more into the added PP scoring.
Still not convinced? Ask yourself why only 28 of Sanderson’s 58 points were not tallied on the PP. His overall IPP was 54.7%, placing him firmly in the top ten among all defensemen who played in at least half their teams’ games, so that’s not where the problem was. Digging deeper, we see the Sens shot a miniscule 6.2% as a team at 5×5 when Sanderson was on the ice. Among 201 defensemen who played in 41+ games in 2024-25, that mark was fourth lowest! And we have to go Roman Josi at 7.2% to find a defensemen who averaged even a point per every other game with the next lowest percentage.
If you own Sanderson in keeper, prepare for him to pay even bigger dividends. If you don’t, now might be the last time you can try to obtain him for a price less than what the league’s most elite d-men fetch.
10) Macklin Celebrini will score at a 100-plus-point pace
Perhaps you think this forecast isn’t that bold? Consider that not only have there only been six other teens to have done this in NHL history, but no one not named Sidney Crosby has in the last 20+ years.
So why Celebrini? Lost amid all the hype surrounding Connor Bedard is that Celebrini had an amazing rookie campaign. His averaging 0.9 points per game and 3.3 SOG per game as an 18-year-old center have only ever been bested by Wayne Gretzky and Dale Hawerchuk. And guess what – both of them hit the century mark in points as a teen, with Gretzky doing so twice. And more amazing is the fact Celebrini did what he did for a Sharks team that finished dead last in goals with just 210. Keep in mind that when the Great One had 137 points as an 18-year-old it was on an Oilers team that tallied 301 goals, while his 164 points at age 19 coincided with the Oilers potting 328 goals, and Hawerchuk’s 102 points at age 18 came for a Jets team that had 319 goals. Also consider that the Sharks had 28 goals when Celebrini missed 12 games early in the season, meaning they had 182 in the 70 games he played. So, his 63 points meant he had a point on more than a third of his teams’ goals. And although not surprisingly Gretzky’s percentage was higher both at age 18 and 19, Hawerchuk’s wasn’t in his 102-point season. So Celebrini was already doing things like a teen 100+ point scorer would do.
But is San Jose really poised to improve enough this season for Celebrini to score at a 100-point pace? It might indeed be possible. After all, they had 59 goals in their last 23 games, for an average of 2.56 per game. Still not great, but considerably better. Also, Celebrini, despite his age and having never played anywhere near 70 games in a season, let alone at the NHL level, still was able to score 19 points in his final 20 games. Plus, Will Smith ignited, with 22 points in his last 24 games. William Eklund slowed a bit but was not playing with Celebrini and Smith as much, and Eklund is set to hit his 200-game breakout threshold this season.
Let’s also consider that Celebrini is a points magnet, with an overall IPP of 79.7% and a PP IPP of 78.6%, the latter being key since San Jose scored 22 of its 42 total PPGs in just its final 27 games. Care to guess who was the only other center with both higher overall and PP IPPs last season? Some guy named Leon Draisaitl, who topped the century mark in points despite missing 11 games. What’s more is Celebrini did what he did despite his team shooting 8.4% when he was on the ice at 5×5, and his PDO was a very low 976. Both have quite a way to rise on top of him already showing he’s an innate points magnet.
Yes, Celebrini is that good. If you have him on any of your keeper league teams, be prepared to reap even bigger dividends even sooner than you might have envisioned.
11) Auston Matthews will set a career high in points
I realize this is a risky forecast, as not only will Matthews be taking the ice at the NHL level without Mitch Marner for the first time literally ever, but also since Matthews has played over 74 games just twice, in 2023-24 and as a rookie. The keys though are not only will Matthews have had time to get back to health, but I feel he will want to show the world he can carry the Leafs without Marner.
Make no mistake – last season was a letdown for Matthews, missing 15 games and failing to average even a goal per every other game. He still scored at a 95-point pace; plus, if we look solely at the period from January 4th onward, when Matthews played 43 consecutive games, he tallied 55 points, for a scoring rate of 105. And this while he was not 100% healthy.
Admittedly, Marner was on the ice for all but ten of Matthews’ points, or 87% in 2024-25. But in Matthews’ best season, Marner was on the ice for 79 of Matthews’ 106 points, which is still very high but not nearly as high 74% of his points. In short, when Matthews was at his very best, part of that was due to the fact he was able to score in more situations than just those with Marner also on the ice.
What about games where Marner missed but Matthews played? The largest sample size from which to draw is the 2023-24 season, when Marner missed 11 games from March 9th through April 3rd, but where Matthews appeared in all of them. In those 11 games, all Matthews did was tally 17 points; and although it is a small sample size, I’d argue helped dispel concerns Matthews’ scoring would be blunted if Marner was ever to leave, as has now occurred.
Another thing to keep in mind is Matthews scored at a 95-point pace last season despite shooting only 12.6%. That might be decent to some, but it was a career low for him. In fact, had he merely shot his 16.2% career rate entering 2024-25, he’d have lit the lamp nine more times, bringing his scoring to 87 points in 67 games, for a scoring rate of 106. Beyond that, Matthews hit a combined 21 crossbars and posts in 2024-25. Not only was that a career high, but only once had it ever been above 14, and that was in 2023-24 when he played 14 more games and scored at a rate of 108 points.
All of this adds up. Also, Matthews is a fierce competitor who realizes the Leafs have disappointed and he, as the face of the franchise, is saddled with a lot of that blame. So, although he will likely want to ensure he can produce at the Olympics and in the playoffs, I also feel he will want to make a statement that he was and still is among the very best in the world. And when the dust settles on 2025-26, I believe he’ll have succeeded by achieving a career high in points.
12) Gabriel Landeskog will have a higher scoring rate than Martin Necas
Many are counting on Necas to continue improving, which would mean outdoing his 87-point scoring pace from last season. After all, he’s a UFA to be, looking to pad his wallet. Plus, it’s presumed he’ll be tethered to Nathan MacKinnon, one of the best in the game, at ES and on the PP. But where others see assured success, I envision a recipe for disappointment amidst lofty expectations.
First, let’s pause to consider that although an 87-point scoring rate is quite great, it pales in comparison to Necas’ 138-point pace after his first 22 games, when he stood at 37 points. From then onward, he only tallied 47 points in 57 games. And despite his TOI rising by over a minute per game once he was on the Avs, and racking up 13 PPPts in his last 20 games, as well as 81 SOG in 30 total games, he was not a point per game scorer with Colorado.
Thus, the question is what could realistically get better for him as an Av? I suppose going through a full training camp and an entire season with MacKinnon could benefit him. But it’s not clear to me whether Mac and Necas have chemistry, as although it did not hurt MacKinnon when they were paired it didn’t really help him either, as Mac had 36 points in 24 games the two played together (each missed three), for a scoring rate of 123, or basically right at his 120 rate for the season.
Let’s also not forget there were times when even Mikko Rantanen was separated from MacKinnon. And the Avs have Valeri Nichushkin as a very viable RW. And Nich has been productive when healthy, plus done well with MacKinnon and is signed through 2030. So, there is a universe where Necas is relegated to the second line, which would not do his productivity any favors.
Then there’s Landeskog, whose comeback from a serious knee injury saw him take the ice this spring for the first time in over three years. And although by playing only five games we can’t be certain how well his body will hold up to the rigors of a full season, he posted four points despite skating only 17:13 per game and being apart from MacKinnon at ES. But going back to 2021-22 when Landeskog last played in the regular season, he was stapled to MacKinnon at ES and on the PP, producing 59 points in 51 games. And the result also was a team SH% at 5×5 for Landeskog of 10.8%, whereas Necas has never once had a season of double digit 5×5 team SH%. Also, the Avs will likely be careful with Landeskog, which, although it could curb him having extended hot streaks, might also allow him to be able to put the most into the games he plays, helping his scoring rate.
Let’s also not forget that Necas, as a UFA, might not be looking to stay with the Avs, whereas Landy is with them through 2029, presuming he plays that long. Although the Avs won’t deemphasize Necas out of fear of him walking away at the end of the season, they might want to prepare for life after he does leave, instead giving top line time to others, like Landeskog or Nichushkin, who’ll remain.
Landeskog also is captain of the Avs, and the last season he played, the team won the Stanley Cup, albeit with him injured. In the three subsequent seasons Landeskog missed, however, the Avs haven’t made it past the second round in the playoffs. So, his presence is important, and with that should come top tier deployment. And it’s likely not a coincidence that Landeskog’s last prior season saw the Avs not only hoist the Cup but also have their highest goals per game output in the last five campaigns by a wide margin. In short, Landeskog makes the team better and, in doing so, pads his own scoring. Necas is a fine player, but he doesn’t have the resume of Landeskog, nor proven chemistry with MacKinnon, and is not signed past this season like Landeskog and Nichushkin. So, look for Landeskog to score at a higher rate than Necas in however many games he does play.
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There they are, my 2025-26 Fearless Forecasts. I didn’t go in deciding I wanted to do 12. Instead, I let myself think of the ones I thought were fearless yet plausible and stopped when I couldn’t think of any others. Did I convince you that at least some of these could come true? Or are you not sold on any of the 12 coming to fruition? Either way, you get to grade my Fearless Forecasts in a poll, where you can vote for any or all you think will indeed occur, or, if you think I’m completely out to lunch, then you can vote for “None of the above.” Best of luck to everyone’s fantasy teams this season!
Questions for Mailbag
My next monthly mailbag has room for plenty more questions. To get your questions to me, you can either send (1) a private message to “rizzeedizzee” via the DobberHockey Forums, or (2) an email to [email protected] with “Roos Mailbag” as the subject line.
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